Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
Indiana
Liberty
Wisconsin
Utah
Central Michigan
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: BYU, Coastal Carolina, Alabama, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Marshall, Ohio State/Northwestern, Nevada/San Jose State, and the champs of the PAC-12 and MAC
Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.
Week 8: 24.2% (15 of 62)
Week 9: 12.8% (6 of 47)
Week 10: 31.7% (13 of 41)
Week 11: 21.4% (6 of 28)
Week 12: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 12 Thoughts:
-Added the 1-loss and winless columns this week.
-Lot of canceled games, but also a lot of compelling football. In the Big Ten, Ohio State held off the strongest Indiana team we've seen in a long time and Northwestern upset Wisconsin. This leaves both solidly in first in their division and both will have to lose 2 of their final 3 to not make the Big Ten Championship Game (or have too many games canceled).
-A few weeks after beating Virginia Tech with a weird turn of events on a field goal, Liberty lost on a blocked field goal try in their final game vs. an ACC team (ended up going 2 for 3 vs. the ACC). They had an outside chance at a NY6 if they'd won.
-Cincinnati won their road game vs. Central Florida. This was probably the toughest of their remaining conference games and set them up well the rest of the way. In a year where the Sun Belt has a very strong competitor in Coastal Carolina and Marshall is fairly strong in Conference USA, a lot were rooting for an upset. Speaking of Coastal Carolina, they beat Appalachian State in what was probably their toughest conference game. Note: It is not out of the realm of possibility we get 2 Group of 5 conference teams represented in the NY6 this year; if both Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina win out, I think it's very possible.
-Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State and just like that Oklahoma is very much in the running to win the Big 12 again.
-PAC-12 had both Oregon and USC pull off wins. Neither can afford any loses if they want to be in the playoff bowls.
Playoff Bowl Thoughts:
I think we can with 90% confidence say the following:
1. The SEC will have a team in the CFP
2. One of Clemson or Notre Dame will be in (possibilities exist for both to miss, but looking less likely).
That leaves 2 spots open. The Big Ten champ will take one if undefeated. Ohio State might be OK with 1 loss provided its not in the championship game.
The PAC-12 is probably strongest for that last spot, but given limited schedule, even undefeated will not guarantee it (although probably will be enough).
If one of the Big Ten or PAC-12 isn't in, then we have to consider a 2nd team from one from the ACC/SEC or Cincinnati/BYU.
2nd Team In: For a second team from one conference making the Rose/Sugar Bowls, I think we are left with only a few possibilities.
-In the ACC, Notre Dame and Clemson winning out till the ACC Championship and then Clemson winning would almost certainly put both in unless it's a blow out.
-In the SEC, Alabama is likely in with 1 loss no matter what. If that comes to a 1-loss Florida in the SEC Championship, they very are likely to both be in. The more likely 2 team combination remains Alabama/Texas A&M though. The Aggies have already beaten Florida and will be favored in the rest of their matches. They won't play in the SEC Championship thanks to losing to Alabama, but the committee is going to like them. They probably aren't going to finish above 4, but there is a real chance they are that high.
-Only other small chance I see (odds of it working right are less than others) would maybe be with an undefeated Northwestern beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship in a razor tight game.
Cincinnati/BYU: I think they both need a lot but do stand a chance. A game vs. each other (little talk on it, but not sure its substantial) might be the push needed to get to #4, but still would need luck. With limited non-conference games, the committee might be more reluctant to take a 2nd team from the same conference which could help. They need to hope for 2 of the following 3: a) the PAC-12 champ isn't strong. b) no slam dunk #2 teams from one conference in (Notre Dame/Clemson and Alabama/Florida the most dangerous), 3. Big Ten not to get in.
Week 13 Thoughts:
1-loss Iowa State @ Texas (Friday): Both still very much in Big 12 race. Texas is out with a loss. Iowa State maintains pole position with a win.
Undefeated Notre Dame @ North Carolina (Friday): Notre Dame's toughest game left before the ACC Championship.
Auburn @ Undefeated Alabama: Lot of rivalry games on different weeks, but some this week still too.
Undefeated Colorado @ Undefeated USC: Loses matter more in the PAC-12. Both are unbeaten.
Undefeated San Jose State @ 1-loss Boise State: Mountain West only has 2 undefeated left. Likely needs an undefeated team to win this year for a shot at a NY6 bowl.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 3, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 17
Cincinnati
Marshall
Brigham Young
Alabama
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Ohio State
Northwestern
Southern California
Colorado
Oregon
Washington
Buffalo
Kent State
Western Michigan
Nevada
San Jose State
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 5, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 21
Tulsa
Clemson
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Wisconsin
Maryland
Florida Atlantic
Liberty
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Ball State
Central Michigan
Toledo
Boise State
Fresno State
Washington State
Arizona State
Utah
Florida
Texas A&M
Louisiana-Lafayette
Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 4, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 18
Kansas
Penn State
Florida International
Massachusetts
Akron
Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
New Mexico
UNLV
Utah State
California
Stanford
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
Vanderbilt
Louisiana-Monroe
