Teams with 1st Loss Week 10:
Air Force
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Missouri
Oklahoma
Teams with 1st Win Week 10:
(Sam Houston)
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: Ohio State/Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Washington, Liberty, and James Madison
We lost the possibility of an undefeated Mountain West champ with Air Force's loss to Army.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-First, one correction to last week. I said the Sun Belt was eliminated from all lists. I was thinking as far a New Year Six bowls, but James Madison is of course still undefeated and would be one of the favorites for the New Years Six if they were eligible this year and not in FBS transition.
-We eliminated one of our lists this week as Sam Houston had a 4th quarter comeback to defeat Kennesaw State. This is their first win and now gives every FBS team at least one win.
-It seemed we had a lot of potential upsets this week, but the biggest to go through was Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State in the final regular Bedlam. Between this game and both Iowa State and Kansas State losing (close games to Kansas and Texas), we went from five 1-loss teams to just two. Oklahoma State and Texas now control their destiny for the Big 12 title game atop the standings. If either lose, a lot of two conference loss teams lay in wait. For the CFP bowls, now only Texas is in the running for the playoff bowls. They don't quite control their destiny and will be rooting for Alabama to win the SEC.
-Washington defeated USC to remain unbeaten. With two losses, USC joins 3 other teams behind Oregon and Washington. All of those teams need Oregon to lose at least one or Washington two to get back in the final regular conference race. USC plays Oregon this week, while 2 conference loss Oregon State will finish against the ducks to end the year. Washington and Oregon are the only two in the playoff bowl hunt.
-Georgia beat Mizzou and Alabama beat LSU to leave both atop their respective divisions. To win their divisions, they both either need one more win or a loss from Tennessee (Georgia) or Ole Miss (Alabama). The scenario for Georgia missing out is a bit more realistic (even if still unlikely) as they play one 1-loss Ole Miss and then play their final conference game vs. Tennessee.
-Louisville beat Virginia Tech to take sole possession of 2nd place in the ACC and in control of the title game spot. Florida State locked their spot in after the win. If Louisville loses, it might open the door to one of the 6 other current 2 conference loss teams (although Louisville is not playing any of them). They remain a dark horse playoff bowl contender as long as they keep winning.
-This week created a lot of clarity in a lot of conference races, but not so in the Big Ten west. All the previous two conference loss teams lost last week except Iowa. The division remains very wide open. Nothing much changed in the east. Ohio State wasn't impressive vs. Rutgers, but came away with a win. Michigan and Penn State face off this week to either fully make this a 3 team race or bring it down to just Ohio State and Michigan.
-Looking at the playoff picture, we do have at least a rough sketch of the pecking order. Five teams control their destiny in: Ohio State/Michigan, Georgia, Washington, and Florida State. If any of those finish unbeaten, they are in the top 4. Past those four, Alabama, Texas, Penn State, and Oregon probably are the next ones in some order if they win out (although Louisville and Ole Miss still have scenarios to get in too). Texas would beat out Alabama with the head to head if both win out (theoretically a scenario that could leave no SEC teams in if the others win out). I am not sure how Oregon/Penn State and Texas would compare without Alabama winning the SEC. Regardless, I think we are 99% down to just 11 teams (our undefeated and 1-loss teams from power 5 conferences) with any realistic chance.
Group of 5 NY6 Race
-I was a little surprised to see Tulane ahead of Air Force last week in the first CFP rankings. It wouldn't have made a difference if Air Force won out (they would have jumped them almost certainly), but it shows there is still a lot of respect being shown to the American even after the losses (or at least to Tulane). I do think Tulane controls their destiny now, but cannot afford a loss and still does have to care some about how it looks moving forward. Another two point win this week keeps them in position, but beating Tulsa by more next week would help.
-Air Force losing to Army out of conference was a blow to the Mountain West's NY6 hopes. Air Force and Fresno State are still alive (and with some upsets maybe others), but the conference looks weaker this week than a week earlier.
-Liberty won well enough this last week, but almost certainly needs help, particuarlly Tulane losing and probably no 1-loss Mountain West champ. Even then, they need to look convincing most the rest of the way in my view.
-I'll emphasize again that if James Madison was eligible, given the Sun Belt doing fairly well out of conference this year, I think they would be a major contender. Unfortunately, outside them, the conference only has even one 2-loss team left (Troy), which leaves them as a very big long shot for the spot.
-Toledo keeps winning. Getting the MAC in here will require a lot of chaos.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-We have two games between an undefeated team and a 1-loss team.
Undefeated Michigan at 1-loss Penn State: Michigan is a small favorite in this monster match up. If Penn State wins, they are back in the conference title (and national title) race and very much want Michigan to beat Ohio State. If Michigan wins, we are coming down to another huge Ohio State/Michigan game.
1-loss Ole Miss at undefeated Georgia: Georgia is a 10.5 point favorite with a lot on the line. Win this and both Alabama and Georgia are going to Atlanta. Lose it and Georgia might have to beat Tennessee to get to Atlanta. Ole Miss, for their part, still has a small window to jump past Alabama (Alabama would have to lose both their last two), but even if they don't, the rebels are still going for a NY6 bowl.
Eastern Michigan at 1-loss Toledo (Wednesday): Toledo probably isn't getting in the NY6 no matter what, but if there is a small chance, they need to look very impressive the rest of the way.
1-loss Alabama at Kentucky: The Crimson Tide will lock up the final SEC west title with a win. If they lose, the door is still open for Ole Miss should they win. Regardless, Alabama probably has to win to stay in national title race.
Utah at undefeated Washington: Washington is over a touchdown favorite vs. the two time defending PAC-12 champs. Washington controls its destiny for everything with a win. Should they lose, Utah still stands a small chance of making it to the PAC-12 championship game.
1-loss Texas at TCU: Texas controls their Big 12 destiny and is in decent shape for the CFP bowls with a win. Lose this though and the Big 12 opens up and there is no chance of the CFP.
USC at 1-loss Oregon: Oregon needs a bit of help, but will probably make the CFP bowls if they win out. They cannot afford a loss here though. Meanwhile, USC would remain in the PAC-12 race (pulling Oregon into a large tie for 2nd) with a win here.
1-loss Fresno State at San Jose State: Fresno State is only a small favorite here. They need to win this to keep their NY6 hopes alive.
Tennessee at Missouri: If Tennessee wins this game they are a 1 point favorite in and Ole Miss upsets Georgia, then the game between Tennessee and Georgia would be for control of the SEC East.
Oklahoma State at UCF: The Cowboys are less than 5 point favorites here. They control their destiny in the Big 12, but with a loss, a lot of other teams could sneak into the Big 12 title game.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Florida State
Michigan
Ohio State
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 0, total: 10
Tulane
Toledo
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Fresno State
Oregon
Louisville
Penn State
Air Force
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 0, total: 0
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