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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14

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CWSooner

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2019, 01:49:54 PM »
and possibly the greatest season this century for the Jayhawks
No "possibly" about it, IMO.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2019, 02:02:01 PM »
In your example, Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin would be better than Bayor's loss to OU?

Not by CFP rankings it wouldn't.
Yes, I think it would be better by CFP rankings AFTER those hypothetical results happen.  

In the current CFP rankings OU is #6 and UW is #8.  However, in the scenario I laid out above OU would lose to #7 Baylor while UW would beat #1 tOSU.  I have little doubt that if that happens, UW would pass OU in the final rankings.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2019, 02:22:47 PM »
In the current CFP rankings OU is #6 and UW is #8.  However, in the scenario I laid out above OU would lose to #7 Baylor while UW would beat #1 tOSU.  I have little doubt that if that happens, UW would pass OU in the final rankings. 
To expand on this a bit, the three 11-2 teams that would exist in this scenario would have remarkably similar losses so it would come down to the quality of their wins, IMHO.  The hypothetical scenario:
  • Baylor beats Oklahoma in the B12CG, and
  • LSU beats Georgia in the SECCG, and 
  • Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the B1GCG

The three 11-2 teams would be:
  • 11-2 B12CG loser Oklahoma, and
  • 11-2 SECCG loser Georgia, and 
  • 11-2 B1GCG winner Wiscosin.  

As I said, their losses would be remarkably similar.  Each would have a "bad" loss:  KSU for OU, USCe for UGA, and ILL for UW.  They would also each have a "good" loss to a 13-0 or 12-1 team:  Baylor for OU, LSU for UGA, and tOSU for UW.  

Wins over currently ranked teams in this hypothetical scenario:
Wisconsin:
  • A B1GCG win over a tOSU team that I think would end up ranked #3
  • #14 Michigan in a blowout at home
  • #16 Iowa close at home
  • #18 Minnesota in a blowout on the road

Georgia:
  • #9 Florida close at a neutral site
  • #11 Auburn close on the road
  • #15 Notre Dame close at home
Oklahoma:
  • Close on the road over a Baylor team that I think would end up ranked #5 (behind LSU, Clemson, tOSU, and Utah)
  • #25 Oklahoma State by 18 points on the road

I listed them in the order that I think they would be ranked.  


My best guess at the CFP top-10 if UW, LSU, Clemson, Baylor, and Utah win:
  • 13-0 LSU (obviously)
  • 13-0 Clemson ditto
  • 12-1 Ohio State (because the committee has shown before that when they make a controversial selection they like to put them at #3 so as to minimize the criticism, ie, tOSU at #3 and Washington at #4 so as to avoid ranking Ohio State adjacent to a team they lost H2H to).  
  • 12-1 Utah
  • 12-1 Baylor
  • 11-2 Wisconsin
  • 11-2 Georgia
  • 11-2 Oklahoma
  • 10-2 Florida (unchanged)
  • 10-2 Penn State (unchanged)


FearlessF

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2019, 02:34:47 PM »
What about 12-1 Clemson-v-Baylor?  I agree with your point above.
Baylor has a better resume this season and should get the nod, but the past 4-5 seasons will be cornsidered and Clamson, the defending champ gets in over Baylor

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2019, 02:39:48 PM »
IMHO, 12-1 Baylor vs 12-1 LSU (or tOSU) is not remotely close. The Tigers (or Buckeyes) would have more and better quality wins, a better loss and substantially more dominant wins. IMHO, that meets the definition of "unequivocally better".
I wanted to expand on this a bit because at this point I think that LSU and tOSU are probably locks for the CFP and merely playing for seeding tomorrow.  The worst-case-scenario for either would be if both Utah and Oklahoma win their respective CG's (because they are the higher ranked teams).  So the hypothetical comparison would be between 12-1 non-champion tOSU and/or LSU and 12-1 P5 Champion Utah and/or Oklahoma or Baylor. 

First the losses:
  • LSU's loss would be to SEC Champion and CFP bound Georgia. 
  • tOSU's loss would be to B1G Champion and #~6 Wisconsin
  • Baylor's loss was to #~8 Oklahoma
  • Utah's loss was to #22 USC
  • Oklahoma's loss was to 5-4/8-4 KSU

LSU's loss is clearly the best with Ohio State's and Baylor's not too far behind while Utah's is considerably worse and Oklahoma's is even worse than that. 

Wins over ranked teams:
Ohio State:
  • #6 Wisconsin in a blowout at home
  • #10 Penn State by 11 at home
  • #14 Michigan in a blowout on the road
  • #20 Cincinnati 42-0 at home
LSU:
  • #9 Florida by two TD's at home
  • #11 Auburn close at home
  • #12 Bama close on the road
Oklahoma:
  • #~11 Baylor close on the road
  • #25 OkSU by 18 points on the road
Baylor:
  • #~8 Oklahoma at a neutral site
  • #25 OkSU by 18 points on the road

Utah:
  • #~15 Oregon at a neutral site

Thus, not only would LSU and tOSU each have a "better" loss than the other potential contenders for the last two CFP spots, they would also have more and better wins over ranked teams.  I believe that the committee would regard those resumes as being "unequivocally better" than hypothetical 12-1 OU, Baylor, or Utah resumes. 


ohio1317

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 14
« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2019, 09:23:25 AM »
Thanks guys for making this thread. 

On CCGs potentially hurting teams, I agree it kind of sucks, but also think that's the cost of going to one.  You have the potential from benefiting from winning and thus also the consequences of a loss.  I'd take our old format over this but those days sadly are gone.

On the Group of 5 spot, I think after seeing the last ranking, Appalachian State is done.  They needed to jump at least Cincinnati last week.  UC being only one spot behind Boise State was about a test case senario for them.  I think just under 50 percent chance they pass Boise if they win.

 

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