In the current CFP rankings OU is #6 and UW is #8. However, in the scenario I laid out above OU would lose to #7 Baylor while UW would beat #1 tOSU. I have little doubt that if that happens, UW would pass OU in the final rankings.
To expand on this a bit, the three 11-2 teams that would exist in this scenario would have remarkably similar losses so it would come down to the quality of their wins, IMHO. The hypothetical scenario:
- Baylor beats Oklahoma in the B12CG, and
- LSU beats Georgia in the SECCG, and
- Wisconsin beats Ohio State in the B1GCG
The three 11-2 teams would be:
- 11-2 B12CG loser Oklahoma, and
- 11-2 SECCG loser Georgia, and
- 11-2 B1GCG winner Wiscosin.
As I said, their losses would be remarkably similar. Each would have a "bad" loss: KSU for OU, USCe for UGA, and ILL for UW. They would also each have a "good" loss to a 13-0 or 12-1 team: Baylor for OU, LSU for UGA, and tOSU for UW.
Wins over currently ranked teams in this hypothetical scenario:
Wisconsin:
- A B1GCG win over a tOSU team that I think would end up ranked #3
- #14 Michigan in a blowout at home
- #16 Iowa close at home
- #18 Minnesota in a blowout on the road
Georgia:
- #9 Florida close at a neutral site
- #11 Auburn close on the road
- #15 Notre Dame close at home
Oklahoma:
- Close on the road over a Baylor team that I think would end up ranked #5 (behind LSU, Clemson, tOSU, and Utah)
- #25 Oklahoma State by 18 points on the road
I listed them in the order that I think they would be ranked.
My best guess at the CFP top-10 if UW, LSU, Clemson, Baylor, and Utah win:
- 13-0 LSU (obviously)
- 13-0 Clemson ditto
- 12-1 Ohio State (because the committee has shown before that when they make a controversial selection they like to put them at #3 so as to minimize the criticism, ie, tOSU at #3 and Washington at #4 so as to avoid ranking Ohio State adjacent to a team they lost H2H to).
- 12-1 Utah
- 12-1 Baylor
- 11-2 Wisconsin
- 11-2 Georgia
- 11-2 Oklahoma
- 10-2 Florida (unchanged)
- 10-2 Penn State (unchanged)