Teams with 1st loss Week 13:
none
Teams with 2nd loss Week 13:
Penn State
Oregon
Southern Methodist
Teams with 1st win Week 13:
none
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: Clemson, LSU, Ohio State
-no changes this week
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)
Week 7: 25% (4 of 16)
Week 8: 16.67% (2 of 12)
Week 9: 10% (1 of 10)
Week 10: 22.22% (2 of 9)
Week 11: 28.57% (2 of 7)
Week 12: 40% (2 of 5)
Week 13: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 13 Thoughts:
-This is the 2nd year we've had all 10 conferences have conference championship games and we now have 13 of the 20 spots in those conference championship games locked down.
-Biggest news of the week was probably Oregon losing to Arizona State. This leaves just Utah undefeated in the PAC-12 which leaves the conference less likely to get in a playoff bowl for two reasons. The first is obviously because if Oregon wins the PAC-12 they are heading to the Rose Bowl and not the CFP. The other is this actually probably hurts Utah a bit too. Utah and Oregon were both above Oklahoma and Baylor. Now only Utah will be. Strength of schedule rest of the way (including this weeks games which we have yet to see the committees rankings take into account) might push a 1-loss Big 12 champ over a 1-loss Utah. That's certainly not a guarantee, but it's a possibility now when it looked less likely going into the week.
-Speaking of the Big 12, Oklahoma and Baylor both secured their places in the Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma had a close game with TCU though. Alabama fans had to be watching that closely because a slip up from both the favorites in the Big 12 and PAC-12 in one week would have been about the best thing for them. As things stand, Alabama is still in contention for the playoff spot if LSU wins the SEC (very unlikely to get if Georgia wins), but I would lean on them needing an upset next week from one of Baylor/Oklahoma. If they go into the Big 12 Championship with 1 loss a piece, I think the road is tougher.
-Ohio State beating Penn State eliminated PSU from both Big Ten and national championship contention. If Ohio State and Minnesota win their rivalry games next week (both will be tough), a small scenario for 2 Big Ten teams in might emerge. It would basically have to be Minnesota winning the Big Ten in a close final game and the committee still really liking Ohio State.
-On our winless list, Akron lost by 3 to Miami (OH) which is better than I would have guessed going into it. Oddly enough, both our teams who left the winless list last week (New Mexico State and Rice) won again this week.
-Group of 5 Cotton Bowl Race: We are now guaranteed to have no worse than a 2-loss American champ, which I think eliminates everyone else from consideration except Boise State and Appalachian State.
Navy beat previous 1-loss SMU eliminating SMU from contention for the American and thus from the Cotton Bowl. This leaves 2-loss Navy as the most likely to make the American championship if Memphis falls to Cincinnati next week. Cincinnati meanwhile won a close one (again) vs. Temple to secure their place in the game.
We now have an interesting set-up here in the American. It has a 1-loss team from both divisions about the meet-up in a season ending game. The problem is this is the week before championship week. If Memphis wins this week, they will play Cincinnati again the following week and might need to win both to win the Cotton Bowl bid. If Memphis loses to Cincinnati this week, Navy will likely be playing at Cincinnati for the championship (although they have to win this week).
Boise State benefited most from SMU losing. They are definitely still behind the two 1-loss American teams, but one is guaranteed to lose this week and then they need to root against that winner in the championship. No one else in the Mountain West stands to gain from that anymore though with Hawaii beating previous 2-loss San Diego State and securing their spot against Boise in the Mountain West championship.
For Appalachian State, they need to win big, hope Hawaii beats Boise State (or Boise State loses next week to Colorado State), and hope the committee likes them over a 2-loss American champ.
Week 14 Thoughts:
-With every conference now having a championship game and with no independents scheduling games after this week this year (I could see that changing with more independents now) this will be the last week for anyone not playing in a championship. That part is sad, but the good news is we know the stakes in a lot of game directly right now which builds the excitement all the more. Because its the end of the season for so many, this week I'm going to cover any game that is likely to impact a conference championship or NY6 bowl in addition to notable undefeated/1-loss/winless games.
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: undefeated Ohio State at Michigan, undefeated Clemson @ South Carolina, and Texas A&M @ undefeated LSU
-We have one game between 1-loss teams in: Cincinnati @ Memphis (Friday). Other games involving 1-loss teams are: 1-loss Boise State @ Colorado State (Friday), 1-loss Appalachian State @ Troy (Friday), Colorado @ 1-loss Utah, 1-loss Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State, 1-loss Georgia @ Georgia Tech, 1-loss Alabama @ Auburn, Wisconsin @ 1-loss Minnesota, and 1-loss Baylor @ Kansas
-Our winless team plays the first game of the week on Tuesday. We have 5-6 Ohio University visiting winless Akron. The Bobcats will be playing for bowl eligibility and very motivated, but Akron kept closer vs. Miami last week than expected. This is their last chance at a victory.
Wisconsin @ 1-loss Minnesota: Winner of this game goes to the Big Ten Championship and more importantly wins the best rivalry trophy in sports in the form of Paul Bunyan's Axe. Minnesota is still playing for the CFP bowls (doesn't that still sound weird to write in late November) and Wisconsin probably at least needs this win to get to the Rose Bowl.
1-loss Alabama @ undefeated Auburn: Alabama needs to win this and needs to look impressive doing it. They are more likely than not missing the playoff even if they win here, but it's close and the committee has given Alabama the benefit of the doubt before. Beat Auburn convincingly and they might even jump a 1-loss Big 12/PAC-12 champ. For Auburn, they have had a truly brutal schedule this year and a win here would go a long way to making the season feel OK after missing a lot of others.
Undefeated Ohio State @ Michigan: Can the Michigan game ever be a trap game for Ohio State? The buckeyes won their trip to Indianapolis last week and losing this probably wouldn't derail national title hopes, but they are playing a Michigan team who has been steadily improving through the past month (I'd personally take Michigan over either Penn State or Wisconsin if they played again tomorrow). Also this is in Ann Arbor and the wolverines want this bad. As a buckeye fan, I've actually thought this game was much more likely to lose than the Penn State one for a few weeks.
Texas A&M @ undefeated LSU: LSU has many avenues to the playoff bowls, but if you only want 1 SEC team in, root hard against the tigers this week. LSU for their part, probably only needs one more win. I think they can afford not to be SEC champs as long as they go undefeated into the game. If they lose this game though, then the loser of Georgia/LSU would be out (except under very weird circumstances) and Alabama's claim to be so strong they shouldn't be left out would also take a hit. Texas A&M, for their part, while maybe not have taken quite the jump fans wanted, has had a decent season and with losses coming to Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia. They are are underdogs here but still good enough to win this game.
Undefeated Clemson @ South Carolina: Wouldn't it just be hilarious if South Carolina didn't make a bowl, lost to Appalachian State, but managed to end a season with wins over both Clemson and Georgia? Probably not happening, but would be a wild ride. Would also seriously push the Appalachian State to the Cotton Bowl argument.
1-loss Cincinnati @ 1-loss Memphis: Cincinnati has struggled offensively, but keeps winning with special teams and defense. Memphis is great on offense. Memphis probably has to win this to get in American Championship (which they would host). Cincinnati for their part, really does not want to lose this game and then have to go right back to Memphis the following week (which they would do with a loss). They will need their quarterback play to step-up though.
1-loss Boise State @ Colorado State: Once again, Boise State is the Mountain West's only hope. Win this road game and they are not in a bad spot though given the American teams playing each other and the broncos being not that far behind.
Colorado @ 1-loss Utah: Utah has to win this or they won't only be out of the playoff chase, they won't be going to the PAC-12 championship (they'll be tied with USC and lose the tiebreaker). If they win, how they win this matters too though. With Oregon losing, a bit of the luster will come off that potential win and both Alabama and the Big 12 champs are bigger threats. It would be nice to dominate this game for the Utes. Colorado needs this game for bowl eligibility.
1-loss Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: If TCU had pulled off the upset vs. Oklahoma last week, this could have been for a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Since they didn't Oklahoma is in regardless, but Oklahoma State is 8-3 and winning this would leave the cowboys with a 5 game winning streak and the season feeling very successful. Oklahoma, for their part, might need to do more than win for their CFP bowl hopes. They had a close game last week. Given the margin between Utah/Oklahoma/Alabama is likely to be close, a blowout win here would help.
1-loss Baylor @ Kansas: Their record isn't great, but Kansas has scared a lot of teams. Don't sleep on them too much in this, especially with Baylor getting ready for the rematch with Oklahoma the following week.
1-loss Georgia @ Georgia Tech: Like Clemson, Georgia just needs to beat this instate rival.
1-loss Appalachian State @ Troy: All the Mountaineers can try to do is make sure this isn't close.
-Other NY6/conference title implication games:
Florida State @ Florida: If Florida wins this, they are likely in a NY6 and the SEC probably has 4 teams in. It will most likely be either the Orange Bowl (with 2 SEC teams in playoff) or Cotton (with 1 team). The big implication for this beyond the NY6 is that it would leave a lot of bowls further down the pecking order with more subpar match-ups.
Navy @ Houston: If Cincinnati beats Memphis on Friday, Navy will be playing this game for the opportunity to go to the American Championship.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia: The winner of this instate rivalry will play Clemson for the ACC title. The winner here will probably be favorite for the Orange Bowl spot even with a loss to Clemson.
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois/Toledo @ Central Michigan: If Western Michigan wins or Central Michigan loses, they are in the MAC Championship vs. Miami. If they lose, than Central Michigan takes the division with a win.
Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic/Florida International @ Marshall: If Florida Atlantic wins, they win the Conference USA east. If they lose, then Marshall can go to the championship with a win.
UAB @ North Texas/UTSA @ Louisiana Tech/Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic: UAB, Southern Miss, and Louisiana Tech are all tied on top of the division. If all three win or lose, UAB wins based on tie breakers. If one of the three losses, the tie-breakers are a follows, Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss, Southern Miss over UAB, UAB over Louisiana Tech (rock, paper, and scissors).
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 3
Clemson
Ohio State
Louisiana State
1-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 10
Cincinnati
Utah
Georgia
Memphis
Boise State
Oklahoma
Appalachian State
Alabama
Minnesota
Baylor
Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Akron
