-Our biggest moves this week might have been with the Group of 5 Cotton Bowl spot. Both our last 2 undefeated teams lost this week with both Appalachian State of the Sun Belt and SMU of the American going down. Where teams are ranked Tuesday will reveal a lot, but here are my thoughts for the moment.
The 1-loss teams from Conference USA and Sun Belt (Louisiana Tech and Appalachian State) likely need a lot regardless of how they do the rest of the way. If Appalachian State beats South Carolina, it would help a lot, but I still think you are probably talking 3 loss teams winning both the American and Mountain West to put either of them in serious discussion (at the very least, weaker 2-loss teams).
That leaves the 1-loss teams in the American and Mountain West as the biggest contenders. The Mountain West has 1 on each division so they could be on course for a championship game and if you are a fan of a different conference team, you prefer at least one to enter the Mountain West Championship Game with more than 1 loss. The American has four 1-loss teams, but 3 of them are in 1 division. If you are rooting for a team outside the American, you really want Cincinnati to lose on that side to set them up (or someone else if they lost twice) as possible multi loss champions which would be easier to pass over.
In the AP poll, the G5 teams are ranked as follows:
- #17 Cincinnati, 7-1, AAC-East
- #19 Memphis, 8-1, AAC-West
- #21 Boise State, 7-1, MWC-Mountain
- #23 SMU, 8-1, AAC-West
- #24 SDSU, 7-1, MWC-West
- #25 Navy, 7-1, AAC-West
- ORV UCF, 7-2, AAC-East
- ORV LaTech, 7-1, CUSA-West
- ORV ApSt, 7-1, SunBelt-East
Cincinnati:
The Bearcats' only loss was to Ohio State but it wasn't close (42-0) and they inexplicably struggled with a horrible ECU team last weekend. That said, they already defeated the AAC-East's second place team (UCF) so they easily control their own destiny to the AACCG. What is left on their schedule, however, is not as easy as one might think:
- 11/9 vs 0-5/2-7 UCONN, should be an easy win
- 11/16 at 2-2/4-4 USF, this could be tricky
- 11/23 vs 2-2/5-3 Temple, this could be tricky
- 11/29 at 4-1/8-1 Memphis, this could be a preview of the AACCG because Cincy and Memphis are in opposite divisions.
- AACCG (assuming they make it), likely Navy, Memphis, or SMU
Memphis:
The Tigers already beat both SMU and Navy so they control their own destiny to the AACCG. That said, both NAVY and SMU still have only one loss each so the Tiger have no room for error. They are off this weekend then:
- 11/16 at 1-4/3-6 Houston, should be an easy win
- 11/23 at 2-2/4-4 USF, this could be tricky
- 11/29 vs 4-0/7-1 Cincy, this could be a preview of the AACCG
Boise State:
The Broncos' lone loss was OOC at BYU. Additionally, they already defeated Air Force. They control their own destiny in the MWC-Mountain but they still have to play two 1-loss MWC-Mountain teams (Wyoming this weekend and UtahSt 11/23) so they do not have much room for error.
SMU:
The Mustangs' loss to Memphis deprived them of control in the AAC-West but they only need one Memphis loss to get right back into the lead for the AACCG.
SDSU:
The Aztecs' loss was non-divisional so they control their own destiny in the MWC-West but their last three MWC games are against the teams currently second, third, and fourth in the division so they do not have much room for error.
Navy:
The Midshipmen lost to Memphis so they need the Tigers to lose but if that does happen then the Navy/SMU game in a couple weeks could be for the AAC-West title. If Navy wins the AACCG it could create a problem for the committee. The Midshipmen have one game (Army) after everybody else is done and assigned to a bowl. If Navy were to get the G5 bid then lose to Army, the second highest ranked G5 Champion would have a very legitimate beef.
UCF:
Aside from having two losses overall, the problem for the Knights is that they lost to Cincy so they need help to get back into the AAC-East race.
LaTech:
The problem for LaTech is that, as a member of CUSA they are not going to get many opportunities to prove themselves.
ApSt:
The Mountaineers, as members of the SunBelt, have the same problem that LaTech has but they scheduled USCe this weekend and that will help if they win. However, even if they do win the USCe game, their other problem is that with their loss to GaSo, they no longer control their own destiny in the SunBelt-East.