Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
Tennessee
North Carolina
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 12:
UCLA
Utah
Mississippi
Central Florida
Liberty
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 4)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: TCU, Ohio State/Michigan, Georgia
-No changes this week. We will have our final game between undefeated teams of the regular season this week with Ohio State vs. Michigan. We still have a maximum of 2 games in the bowls/championship between undefeated teams.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-That was a fun week of college football!
-We lost our last two-loss independent this week with Liberty losing. Looking back on the year, fellow independent Notre Dame is one you can wonder about with scheduling. They still have three losses and 2 of them were back to back to start the year with Ohio State and Marshall game 1 and 2. Move that Ohio State game back a week or two and might it have been different? If it was, it is less likely Notre Dame would have had a surprise loss the week after. I am not saying anything had to change at all (and Ohio State would have been favored then too), but it interesting to think how small changes can lead to different results and create very different narratives for a year. It is a big part of the fun and agony of the sport.
-After this weekend, outside of extreme chaos, I think we are realistically down to 7 teams competing for the 4 playoff bowls in Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, LSU, USC, Clemson, and TCU.
-Tennessee losing like that to South Carolina really effects the SEC's chances at a 2nd bid. The Vols are now out of it. The one remaining way for the SEC to get two in is if LSU beats Georgia for the SEC Championship. Regardless, the conference is still in a pretty good position to get 3-4 New Year Six bids.
-TCU's comeback vs. Baylor keeps them going strong. While they have had a lot of close games, they have won them all. Win two more and they are in the playoff bowls. Can they afford to lose one? If it is next week I don't know. If it is in the Big 12 Championship, I think they will struggle to get in. As for the other spot in the Big 12 Championship, it is Kansas State's to lose. Win this week and they are in. Lose it and Texas can still take the spot.
-Ohio State and Michigan are set to face off next week as undefeated vs. undefeated, but they both needed whole games this week to get victories against teams they weren't supposed to be close against. None-the-less, both won, and we are set-up for a monster game. On the other side of the conference, our field is finally narrowing. By beating Minnesota, Iowa controls their destiny and need only to win this week. If they lose to Nebraska, it comes down to if Purdue wins or not. If both lose, we go to a bigger team tie breaker.
-North Carolina losing eliminates the small dark horse chance they had and hurts Clemson's chances a little too (as a win vs. North Carolina won't be worth as much). That said, Clemson remains a 1-loss team, is in the CFP race still, and the South Carolina game now is bigger. The only chance for the ACC to get two teams in the New Years Six is for a) Clemson to get in the CFP or b) Clemson to lose to North Carolina, but not far fall in the rankings.
-We had great games in the PAC-12. USC holding on to win over UCLA puts the Trojans in the PAC-12 title game and still in the CFP race. Oregon beating Utah leaves the Ducks the most likely to join USC, but Oregon has to beat a surprisingly decent Oregon State team next week or Utah or Washington could still take the spot (depending on a few results).
-I wrote most of this post on Sunday night (and am obviously a little late posting). I originally wrote that we had a little bit of an opening for Coastal Carolina and maybe a 2-loss UTSA or 2-loss Sun Belt champ thanks to UCF losing to Navy. My logic was that there was a chance a three loss team could win the American and it might leave just enough room for another conference to take the bid. I wasn't betting on it, but it seemed reasonable and I expected UCF out of the rankings and Coastal Carolina possibly in. As it is now Tuesday and UCF, Tulane, and Cincinnati are all ranked and Coastal Carolina and the others are not, I think the New Years Six spot seems pretty locked into the American for the 6th straight year and for the 7th time in the 9 years of the College Football Playoff. Next year things will likely open up more with all the departures, but for this year, the American champ seems destined for the Cotton Bowl.
-Canceling the Virginia-Coastal Carolina game last week I think was the right move, but winning it was desperately needed for Coastal Carolina. I don't think it would have been enough for Coastal, but without it, I don't think there is any longer a path to the NY6.
Week 13 Thoughts:
-Undefeated Michigan at Undefeated Ohio State: This is our final regular season game between undefeateds. The Game will determine which schools goes to the Big Ten Championship and the winner will be highly favored to get to the playoff bowls (even if they lose close in the Big Ten Championship). The loser needs things to at least be close to have a chance to still make it and needs some help.
-Notre Dame at 1-loss USC: After early losses, Notre Dame has only been able to play spoiler, but that they have done well giving both Clemson and North Carolina losses. USC has a playoff spot there for the taking, but they have to win this rivalry game again to get there.
-2-loss Tulane at 2-loss Cincinnati (Friday): This is a battle between the final two 2-loss teams in the American. The winner will host the American Championship the final week with a NY6 bid on the line. The loser might be done for the season (although tie breakers will go into effect). This is very high stakes for both.
-South Carolina at 1-loss Clemson: South Carolina demolished Tennessee's CFP hopes last week. Can they do it for Clemson now? They are not favored to, but it would give the rivalry some more juice. Clemson is still in the CFP hunt with a win. Style points do matter for Clemson.
-Iowa State at undefeated TCU: TCU has seemingly made it through the meat of their schedule, but Iowa State, as a 10.5 point underdog, can still win this. TCU controls their destiny now, but wouldn't be guaranteed to with a loss.
-2-loss Oregon at Oregon State: The Ducks win this and they play USC for the PAC-12 title and a Rose Bowl spot. Oregon State has had a great season though and, winning now, would be icing on the cake. Oregon is only a 3.5 point favorite. Lose this and both Washington and Utah are still alive.
2-loss Washington at Washington State: Washington is not a huge favorite here, but they have a lot to play for. Should Oregon fall, Washington can take the 2nd PAC-12 Championship spot with a win and a Cal win over UCLA (given the tie breakers).
Utah at Colorado: Utah is in the PAC-12 title with a win here, an Oregon loss, a Washington win, and a UCLA win over Cal. With the exception of Oregon, all of those are favored.
-1-loss Coastal Carolina at James Madison: Coastal Carolina is probably already out of time, but they need to win this big and hope for enough chaos in the American for them to slide in to the Cotton Bowl. It is highly unlikely, but if there is any team outside the American left with a chance, it is Coastal Carolina.
Auburn at 2-loss Alabama: The Tide are likely to win here and the rewards aren't as high as usual, but a NY6 bid is probably still on the line. Lose this and Alabama will likely slip out.
Texas A&M at 2-loss LSU: The Aggies have fallen apart this year, but LSU, despite locking up a trip to Atlanta, do not look unstoppable. A loss would likely kill any chance LSU has at the CFP (even if they later beat Georgia) and would give the Aggies something positive to look back on for the year.
2-loss Tennessee at Vanderbilt: The Vols are obviously big favorites, but are coming off a disastrous loss and this is a rivalry game. Vanderbilt also beat Florida last week. Should Vanderbilt win this, Tennessee is probably out of a NY6 bowl despite all the success.
Michigan State at 2-loss Penn State: Penn State is on the edge between NY6 and not based mostly on things beyond their control. That said, win this game and there are a lot of scenarios putting Penn State in the Cotton Bowl and even a small chance at the Rose Bowl (if Ohio State and Michigan both made the CFP).
-UCF at South Florida: Since they are still in the CFP rankings, UCF will be in the American Championship if they win this game and play at the winner of Cincinnati and Tulane.
-Nebraska at Iowa (Friday): If Iowa wins this, they go to the Big Ten Championship. If they lose, Purdue is the most likely.
-Purdue at Indiana: If Iowa loses on Friday, then this game is for the Big Ten West. Win it and Purdue does to Indianapolis. Lose and we go to a wider tie breaker.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 4
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
Georgia
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 0, Sun Belt: 1, total: 3
Southern California
Coastal Carolina
Clemson
2-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 2, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 11
Cincinnati
Penn State
UTSA
Washington
Alabama
Louisiana State
Troy
South Alabama
Oregon
Tulane
Tennessee
