Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Oregon
Mississippi
Tulane
Liberty
UCLA
Teams with 3rd Loss Week 11:
North Carolina State
Illinois
San Jose State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 4)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: TCU, Ohio State/Michigan, Georgia
-no changes
Week 11 Thoughts:
-On our 1-loss list, we lost our final independent and American teams as Liberty and Tulane lost. We are now down to just 9 teams with 0 or 1 loss. We also lost our last 2-loss Mountain West team. We are much more likely than not to have a 2-loss team representing the Group of 5 conferences in the New Years 6 this year with only Coastal Carolina out of the Sun Belt remaining with 1 loss.
-TCU beating Texas on the road was big for the Big 12. It keeps the Horned Frogs unbeaten and in control of their playoff destiny. It also locks them into the Big 12 Championship. With Kansas State beating Baylor, the Wildcats now control their Big 12 destiny for the 2nd spot. If they win at West Virginia and vs. Kansas, they will have one fewer loss than everyone else and go to the Big 12 Championship opposite TCU. Should they drop one of those, they would still be in the running along with 3 other current 3 conference loss teams. I will wait a week to look up tie breakers on that.
-It was a bad week for the PAC-12's playoff hope. Oregon lost a close one to rival Washington and UCLA had a surprise loss to Arizona. That leaves only USC with 1-loss. They are the only ones left with a realistic chance at the CFP and potential wins over UCLA and Oregon won't be quite as big now even if they do win out. They are still very much in the running though. For the conference race itself, USC, Oregon, and Utah all have one loss. If two of them lose, it opens the door to UCLA and Washington. There are enough games between them (see below) for that to be realistic.
-The SEC Championship is set. It will be currently 2-loss LSU vs. currently undefeated Georgia. I believe this effectively eliminated both Alabama and Ole Miss from the CFP conversation (feels weird to say that about Alabama right now). It doesn't Tennessee though who only has 1-loss and beat LSU. As I don't know how the committee would compare a 1-loss Tennessee to a 2-loss SEC Champion LSU, Tennessee is better off rooting against LSU the rest of the way.
-In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan continue to march toward each other to see which school wins the Big Ten East. The West is interesting, although, going forward, there are now no longer any teams from it on our lists. Illinois gave up their pole position with another loss to tie them up with Iowa, Purdue, and Minnesota. Given the Illini play Michigan next week, I think the odds have clearly spun against them, but there are a lot of ways the west can go still.
-The top of the ACC won this week with both Clemson and North Carolina winning. The conference's best chance at a playoff bowl is to have both looking good and both with 1-loss come championship weekend.
-Tulane losing removes the highest ranked team from a Group of 5 conference. Despite that, I think this last week strengthened the American's chances at a New Years 6 spot. The committee has shown it values the top of the American higher right now given they continued to rank 2-loss UCF over 1-loss Coastal Carolina, and Coastal Carolina's close win is unlikely to put them above either UCF or Tulane. UCF beating Tulane leaves the American with three 2-loss teams and Tulane and Cincinnati still have to play. It's pretty likely we get a 2-loss American team vs. another 2-loss team in the American Championship game and I don't see anyone else beating that. For Coastal Carolina to win it, I think you need a 3-loss team to enter the American Championship and win it. For a 2-loss Sun Belt Champ or UTSA Conference USA champ, I don't think even a 3-loss American champ would be enough, but it's at least possible.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-There is one game between a 1 loss team and a 2-loss team this week.
1-loss USC at 2-loss UCLA: While a little was taken off the line after UCLA's loss last week, USC is still playing for a playoff bowl spot and will lock up a spot in the PAC-12 Championship with a win. For their part, UCLA controls their PAC-12 destiny if they win and Oregon wins if I figured right (as UCLA would then have 2-losses, but have beaten Washington, USC, and Utah)
-2-loss Utah at 2-loss Oregon: Both have 1 conference loss. The winner here controls their PAC-12/Rose Bowl destiny.
-Undefeated TCU at Baylor: TCU is coming off a monster win, undefeated, and controls their playoff bowl destiny. They need to be focused here though as Baylor is only a slight underdog and the Bears still have an outside shot at the Big 12 Championship if they can win this.
-Illinois at undefeated Michigan: This game looked a lot bigger a few weeks ago. Now Illinois has to win it to stay in the west race. Michigan needs to avoid a trap game before playing Ohio State.
-1-loss Tennessee at South Carolina: I wouldn't even note this game with the line except for the fact that it is not just a matter of the result, but how Tennessee looks. They aren't making the SEC Championship. They need to get into the CFP without that on their resume so it is best to go out looking good the final two weeks of the year. This is particularly true if LSU ends up winning the SEC.
1-loss Coastal Carolina at Virginia: Coastal Carolina is trying to get in the New Years Six hunt with the top of the American, but they need help. None of it will matter if they lose this game that they are a small underdog in.
-SMU at 2-loss Tulane (Thursday): Losing hurt Tulane, but they most likely still have everything in front of them they had before except control of the American Championship site. They are playing a short week after the loss though and SMU is only a 3 point underdog. Lose this and they will not control their New Years Six destiny. Everyone outside the American is better if they lose as it ups the odds of a three loss team making the American Championship Game.
-Navy at 2-loss UCF and 2-loss Cincinnati at Temple: Same stakes on these games as the Tulane game above, but in these cases, Cincinnati and UCF are pretty decent favorites.
-2-Loss Ole Miss at Arkansas: Ole Miss is out of the CFP running in my view, but they are still looking for a New Year Six bid. Win their final two and they stand a pretty good chance. Lose one and they are almost certainly out. They are a small favorite here.
With more than 2 losses, but still worth noting:
Kansas State at West Virginia: Kansas State is in 2nd by themselves in the Big 12. Win this and against Kansas and it doesn't matter what anyone else does. Lose it though and there are a slew of teams still up for the 2nd spot to the Big 12 Championship.
Iowa at Minnesota: Assuming Michigan beats Illinois, the winner of this game will be atop the Big Ten West with no one else besides most likely Purdue.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 4
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
Georgia
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 0, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 5
North Carolina
Southern California
Coastal Carolina
Tennessee
Clemson
2-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 3, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 15
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Penn State
UTSA
Utah
Washington
Alabama
Louisiana State
Troy
South Alabama
Oregon
Mississippi
Tulane
Liberty
UCLA
