Teams with 1st Loss Week 10:
Tennessee
Clemson
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 10:
Illinois
Alabama
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: TCU, Ohio State/Michigan, Georgia
-We lost one with the final ACC team losing. We only have one renaming possible game between undefeateds in the regular season. We could potentially get two more in the CFP, but no longer three more.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-For the first time I added a 2-loss list. I added this mostly for the Group 5 NY6 spot, but it also gives a good list of teams competing for NY6 bowls in general and a CFP contender in LSU. I will note again that history mostly favors the no loss and 1-loss teams for the CFP/BCS Championship and auto-NY6/BCS bowls. We are only talking 2007 LSU and 2014 Boise State as exceptions. That said, the BCS era would have saw more 2 loss teams if four teams had made it then, and, if we always had a non-AQ representatives during the BCS era, 2 loss representatives would have been more common.
-It was a big night in the SEC and a really bad one for Tennessee in my opinion. The game itself with Georgia effectively gave the Bulldogs the division. What made it worse though was the game not feeling close and Alabama also losing. Alabama losing diminishes the Volunteers first win over them a bit (although raises the LSU one). Combined, I think Tennessee is still very much in the running for the CFP, but need a bit more help than I would have guessed after a loss.
-LSU, not Alabama or Ole Miss, now controls their destiny in the SEC West. Win out and they head to Atalanta. Despite these lists being primarily about undefeated and 1-loss teams, I do believe a 2-loss SEC Champ LSU makes the CFP.
-The agreement between the ACC and Notre Dame is an agreement that gives the conference a lot of high profile matchups. The actual results of the games this year though has hurt the conference. Clemson will need a decent bit of help to get back into the race after that loss and North Carolina also only has their single loss to Notre Dame. Syracuse lost and it hurt their ratings too. I am sure someone else would have been on the schedule instead of Notre Dame for those teams and maybe we get similar results, but, this year, the Irish have knocked down the ACC's hopes.
-Ohio State was far from impressive in its win over 1-win Northwestern. This could end up effecting them a bit in the rankings. That won't matter if they win out, but if looking at 2nd spot from Big Ten, it might be relevant. Also in the Big Ten, Illinois lost to Michigan State leaving the west wide open again. Illinois still only has 2 conference losses and is in the lead, but they are going to play Michigan still and there a lot of 3 loss teams still in the running. Every team below Illinois in the standings has 3 conference losses except Nebraska and Northwestern.
-In the Big 12, TCU remains undefeated and in control of their destiny. Since Baylor and Texas still have to play each other and TCU beat Kansas State already, the Horned Frogs are just a win away from clinching a Big 12 title spot if I figured it right. For the other spot, Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State all have 2 conference losses and are competing with each other. Texas has beat Kansas State, but the rest all still have to play each other. That probably gives the Longhorns an advantage, but Texas and Baylor both still have to play TCU too. If all three of them lose once, a current 3 loss team might make it back in the race.
-The three one loss PAC-12 teams are holding steady with all winning this week. The conference has to like seeing Clemson go down and the events in the SEC. If we get something like an Oregon vs. Tennessee decision at the end, I would lean to the committee taking the 1-loss PAC-12 champ Oregon over an 11-1 Volunteer team. I would have gone the other way on that before the weekend.
-Liberty won a road game at Arkansas. Their lone loss was a close one to a fairly good Wake Forest. If Liberty were in a Group of 5 conference this year, they would very much be in the New Years 6 discussion. As an independent, they can only get in as an at large. As pointed out to me in last week's thread, that is harder this year with the Cotton being the only bowl with an open spot. That will leave the ranking threshold harder to break than normal. Despite the success, I think Liberty would be on the outside looking in most other years as is, and I think the hill this year is too high to climb. That said, 11-1 is possible and we'll see.
-We didn't lose any teams from our 1-loss list of teams from Group of 5 conferences. Ranked 2-loss UCF also ended up beating Memphis in a close game. Tulane most definitely controls their NY6 destiny. I do think we are going to start to see Coastal enter the rankings soon, but it probably needs to be soon if they are going to compete with a possible 2-loss American champ. As things stand, I still learn toward a 2-loss American champ being in over them, but I still don't think a foregone conclusion. If Coastal loses once and the eventual American champ has 3 losses, I think the door opens up for a few more teams. If you want chaos for this spot, you first need some extra loses in the American so someone enters the American Championship with at least 3 losses.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-No undefeated or 1-loss teams play each other this week, but we do have some between them and 2-loss teams and some otherwise still high stakes games.
Undefeated TCU at Texas: TCU is undefeated and controls their CFP destiny completely. Clemson, the PAC-12 contenders, and Tennessee all are better off if TCU loses. Texas can't get back in the playoff bowl race at this point, but they can win the Big 12 and are a 7.5 point favorite in this. They need help in the Big 12 if they lose this.
2-loss Alabama at 1-loss Ole Miss: Both teams need LSU to lose, but that is much more likely than most are thinking after they beat Bama. If LSU does lose, the winner here is in great shape to take the division.
2-loss UCF at 1-loss Tulane: Central Florida is a small underdog here. Either team that wins here might be the overall favorite to land the New Years 6 spot.
2-loss Washington at 1-loss Oregon: Oregon has been rolling and hopes to parlay that into the CFP. Washington is trying to avoid being taken out of the PAC-12 race completely.
1-loss North Carolina at Wake Forest: North Carolina is slowly moving up the rankings, but are an underdog to Wake in this game. Win it though and the stage is still set for a 1-loss North Carolina vs. Clemson ACC Championship.
Undefeated Georgia at Mississippi State: Georgia is a large favorite here, but it is always good to watch teams going on road after a big victory.
Louisville at 1-loss Clemson: Clemson needs a lot of help to get back into the CFP race. They are just over a touchdown favorite here. If they lose it, the ACC is at serious risk of only one NY6 team this year.
Southern Miss at 1-loss Coastal Carolina: Coastal is better than 11 point favorites in this. How they win is almost as important as if they win though. The Sun Belt has had some good out of conference wins this year, but they were not really Coastal Carolina's. If Coastal Carolina can dominate and Tulane drops one, Coastal might be able to get close enough to pass a possible 2-loss American champ. They have to look very good to do that though.
2-loss LSU at Arkansas: LSU beat Alabama last week while Arkansas lost to Liberty. Arkansas is only a 3 point underdog in this game. LSU controls their destiny in the SEC West having beaten both Alabama and Ole Miss, but if they lose this, they no longer do.
Purdue at 2-loss Illinois: The Illini are still on top in the Big Ten West, but the cushion they had is slipping and they have a game vs. Michigan left. Purdue is very much in the west race with a win.
East Carolina @ 2-loss Cincinnati (Friday): Cincinnati is one of the three 2-loss or better American teams and less than a touchdown favorite on a Friday game. It's better for Coastal and the other conference 2-loss teams if the Bearcats lose.
2-loss San Jose State at San Diego State: San Jose State is the last 2-loss team in the Mountain West and they are very small favorites in this. They need a lot of chaos to get in the NY6 race, but it is definitely in the realm of possibility. None of that matters without winning here though.
Kansas State @ Baylor: Loser is in a very bad spot for Big 12 title race. Winner is competing most strongly with Texas for 2nd spot after a likely TCU one.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 4
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
Georgia
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 0, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 10
North Carolina
Tulane
Oregon
Liberty
Southern California
Coastal Carolina
Mississippi
UCLA
Tennessee
Clemson
2-loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 13
North Carolina State
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Penn State
Illinois
UTSA
San Jose State
Utah
Washington
Alabama
Louisiana State
Troy
South Alabama
