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Topic: Ranking CFP era performance
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #98 on:** March 28, 2023, 11:00:52 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 09:25:43 AM

Should we infer anything from this about Oklahoma?

I agree with @FearlessF :

Quote from: FearlessF on March 28, 2023, 09:38:45 AM

even a blind horned frog finds an acorn once in a while

Going into a little more detail, here are Oklahoma's four CFP Semi-final losses:

2019: Blown out 63-28 by eventual champion LSU. It should be noted that LSU blew out Clemson by almost as large of a margin and that Clemson won a VERY close Semi-final over tOSU. I'd argue that LSU (at the end of that year) was just a LOT better than everyone else.
2018: 45-34 loss to Bama. This was a sorta-blowout. It only ended up as an 11 point loss but they were down 28-0 EARLY in the second quarter and never got closer than the 11 point final differential.
2017: 54-48 2OT loss to UGA. It should be noted that UGA went on to lose the CG in OT so that suggests that OU was at least close to equal with the NC that year.
2015: 37-17 loss to Clemson. The Sooners led 17-16 at halftime and were within one score deep into the third quarter but ultimately they got outscored 21-0 in the second half, ouch.

Considering the competition that isn't all that bad. Honestly it is hard to say because four isn't a large enough sample size.

FearlessF · « **Reply #99 on:** March 28, 2023, 11:50:13 AM »

giving up 63, 45, 54, & 37 is an argument for better defense, regardless of the opponent's offense

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #100 on:** March 28, 2023, 12:10:06 PM »

The four plus FG games that some of you have listed are interesting but I was thinking more in terms of impact than in terms of raw number of FG's.

One stat that I would like to see added to box scores is an efficiency measurement, yards per point.

The game I am thinking of here is Ohio State's CFP Semi-Final loss to Clemson in the 2019 season.

The Buckeyes moved the ball seemingly at will between the 20's, dominated long stretches of the game, and ended up with an impressive 516 yards but only scored 23 points (3 FG's, 2 TD's). That works out to almost 22.5 yards per point.

The Tigers had a LOT more trouble moving the ball . . . most of the time but when they DID move the ball, they got the most out of it. They scored only four times to Ohio State's five but all four were TD's plus they had a 2pt conversion for a total of 29 points on 417 yards. That works out to a little under 14.5 yards per point.

At one point in the game Ohio State had an advantage of over 200 yards and had scored FOUR times to Clemson's zero. This isn't to knock Clemson or diminish their victory. The point is that Ohio State simply did not get enough out of the period of the game when they were dominating everything but the score. If those four scores had all been TD's it would have been an insurmountable 28-0 lead. If they had been half TD's and half FG's it would have been a 20-0 advantage. Instead they were three FG's and only one TD so when Clemson scored two TD's late in the first half it was suddenly a two point game at 16-14.

ELA · « **Reply #101 on:** March 28, 2023, 12:22:22 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 28, 2023, 12:10:06 PM

The four plus FG games that some of you have listed are interesting but I was thinking more in terms of impact than in terms of raw number of FG's.

One stat that I would like to see added to box scores is an efficiency measurement, yards per point.

The game I am thinking of here is Ohio State's CFP Semi-Final loss to Clemson in the 2019 season.

The Buckeyes moved the ball seemingly at will between the 20's, dominated long stretches of the game, and ended up with an impressive 516 yards but only scored 23 points (3 FG's, 2 TD's). That works out to almost 22.5 yards per point.

The Tigers had a LOT more trouble moving the ball . . . most of the time but when they DID move the ball, they got the most out of it. They scored only four times to Ohio State's five but all four were TD's plus they had a 2pt conversion for a total of 29 points on 417 yards. That works out to a little under 14.5 yards per point.

At one point in the game Ohio State had an advantage of over 200 yards and had scored FOUR times to Clemson's zero. This isn't to knock Clemson or diminish their victory. The point is that Ohio State simply did not get enough out of the period of the game when they were dominating everything but the score. If those four scores had all been TD's it would have been an insurmountable 28-0 lead. If they had been half TD's and half FG's it would have been a 20-0 advantage. Instead they were three FG's and only one TD so when Clemson scored two TD's late in the first half it was suddenly a two point game at 16-14.

I think you should spend the weekend reviewing that 5 FG MSU upset of #1 OSU. Watch as many times as you need, until you come to an answer.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #102 on:** March 28, 2023, 12:30:33 PM »

Anyone have data on what level of defense is "average" for the eventual NC winner (leave out the past two years perhaps?)?

Who had the worst defense to win a CFP NC?

ELA · « **Reply #103 on:** March 28, 2023, 12:52:28 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 12:30:33 PM

Anyone have data on what level of defense is "average" for the eventual NC winner (leave out the past two years perhaps?)?

Who had the worst defense to win a CFP NC?

SP+ defense by year (split between BCS and CFP eras)

2022 Georgia - #3
2021 Georgia - #1
2020 Alabama - #6
2019 LSU - #20 (#1 offense)
2018 Clemson - #3
2017 Alabama - #1
2016 Clemson - #6
2015 Alabama - #1
2014 Ohio State - #24 (#2 offense)

2013 Florida State - #2
2012 Alabama - #3
2011 Alabama - #1
2010 Auburn - #44 (#1 offense)
2009 Alabama - #1
2008 Florida - #6
2007 LSU - #7
2006 Florida - #3
2005 Texas - #10

So while you "largely" need a top 6ish defense. To win a national title, you need so much talent that even a meh defense can frequently just out talent you, if they are this good. And to have a #20, #24 and #44 sprinkled in there (granted I wonder how 2010 Auburn would have done in a CFP), actually makes me think it's less important than having a potent offense. Have that many mid offenses won a national title in that time? Hell, that Auburn team probably has the same profile, but flipped, from a 2013 Michigan State. The difference is 2013 MSU lost a September game at Notre Dame, and Auburn stayed undefeated. I think they probably would have fared similarly in a CFP.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #104 on:** March 28, 2023, 12:57:57 PM »

That is more "top 6 Ds" than I would have guessed. Zounds. And the exceptions have a #1 or 2 offense.

jgvol · « **Reply #105 on:** March 28, 2023, 01:12:38 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 12:57:57 PM

That is more "top 6 Ds" than I would have guessed. Zounds. And the exceptions have a #1 or 2 offense.

I'd infer the 'ol "defense wins championships".

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #106 on:** March 28, 2023, 01:20:55 PM »

Quote from: ELA on March 28, 2023, 12:22:22 PM

I think you should spend the weekend reviewing that 5 FG MSU upset of #1 OSU. Watch as many times as you need, until you come to an answer.

I missed that game live due to a very inconsiderate relative scheduling a wedding that day but I've watched it plenty of times since. Just a crazy upset.

ELA · « **Reply #107 on:** March 28, 2023, 01:25:13 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 28, 2023, 01:20:55 PM

I missed that game live due to a very inconsiderate relative scheduling a wedding that day but I've watched it plenty of times since. Just a crazy upset.

We actually had my uncle in from Dayton on business Friday (I was a freshman in HS). We went to the UM game at noon (vs. Iowa?). Then we watched the start of the game, OSU was up plenty. My mom cooked a big dinner, he was planning on driving back after dinner, but suddenly MSU had made it a game. So he stayed til the end. It was the most awkward viewing experience because he was watching in Ann Arbor, with UM fans, but it was MSU, so we could sort of pretend we hated both teams equally, but couldn't really root for anything

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #108 on:** March 28, 2023, 01:58:46 PM »

Quote from: ELA on March 28, 2023, 12:22:22 PM

I think you should spend the weekend reviewing that 5 FG MSU upset of #1 OSU. Watch as many times as you need, until you come to an answer.

This reminds me of something else I was going to post.

On this board we've discussed consistency and that is the area in which Ohio State simply has no equal. While the Buckeyes have had the occasional clunker season they haven't had a prolonged downturn in a very, very long time. Even @rolltidefan has expressed his admiration for the Buckeyes being almost always in the mix.

I do enjoy the fact that my Alma Mater is nearly always in the NC race at least every few years and BY FAR more often than any other school. The downside of that, however, is that Ohio State probably has more heartbreaking near misses than any other team.

In the 53 seasons from 1969-2021 (Stassen hasn't added 2022 yet) the Buckeyes had the best winning percentage by a fairly significant margin over #2 Oklahoma. Despite that, #2 Oklahoma (4), #3 Alabama (10) and #4 Nebraska (5) each have more NC's than Ohio State (2) in that time.

Ohio State's one blemish seasons from 1969-2021:

8-1 in 1969: Lost The Game which due to RB Only and No Repeat rules was for the NC.
9-1 in 1970: Lost RB to Stanford. The Buckeyes were #2 but #1 Texas lost so it was for the NC.
10-0-1 in 1973: Tied The Game as #1, ended up #2.
11-1 in 1975: Lost RB to UCLA despite easily beating that same UCLA team on that same field earlier in the season.
11-1 in 1979: Lost RB to USC by one freaking point as #1.
11-1 in 1996: Lost The Game and finished #2.
11-1 in 1998: See ELA's link to his favorite MSU game.
12-1 in 2006: Lost BCSNCG to Florida.
14-1 in 2014: Won NC anyway.
12-1 in 2015: Probably ELA's second favorite MSU game.
13-1 in 2018: Probably Beta's favorite Purdue game.
13-1 in 2019: The aforementioned FG-fest against Clemson.
7-1 in 2020: Lost CFPNCG to Bama.

This doesn't even include other title game or effective title losses that were #2 on the year for Ohio State.

I know it is a Helmet School Problem, but from fan experience I can assure you that it is a LOT of heartbreaking near misses.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #109 on:** March 28, 2023, 02:05:11 PM »

Nobody is close to OSU in overall consistency. I don't know who might be second.

FearlessF · « **Reply #110 on:** March 28, 2023, 02:21:38 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on March 28, 2023, 01:58:46 PM

I know it is a Helmet School Problem, but from fan experience I can assure you that it is a LOT of heartbreaking near misses.

Husker fans have felt the pain from 1975 until getting the big win for Osborne in 94
and then there was 96, 99, & 2001

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #111 on:** March 28, 2023, 03:11:58 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 28, 2023, 02:05:11 PM

Nobody is close to OSU in overall consistency. I don't know who might be second.

USC.

I did a deep dive on this a long time ago and still have it so I'll list them here. My method:

I included all of the "helmets" plus a few "near helmets".
I entered records for each year from 1927-2021 (NOT updated for 2022).
Then I calculated 10-year records for EACH 10-year period, ie: 1927-1936 then 1928-1937 . . . 2012-2021 for EACH school.
Then I determined each school's worst 10-year period.
Then I ranked the schools by their worst 10-year period.

Those rankings are:

.632 Ohio State
.554 USC
.511 Oklahoma
.510 Texas
.509 Notre Dame
.495 Michigan
.492 Tennessee
.476 LSU
.476 Alabama
.466 Florida State (doesn't start until 1947
.446 Penn State
.416 Clemson
.388 Florida
.374 Miami, FL
.337 Nebraska

Sorry, I did this a few years ago and didn't include Georgia. If I were doing it now, I would.

USC is second but Ohio State is so far ahead that #2 USC is about as close to #9 Alabama as they are to #1 Ohio State.

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Topic: Ranking CFP era performance

medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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ELA

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jgvol

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ELA

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