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Topic: Ranking CFP era performance

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medinabuckeye1

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Ranking CFP era performance
« on: January 10, 2023, 05:23:12 PM »

My method:  I ranked by:

  • Championships, then by
  • Semi-Final wins, then by
  • Appearances, then by
  • Most recent appearance.  
Alabama is a clear-cut #1 because they would be #1 no matter how you ranked the teams.  They lead everything:
  • Most Championships, by one over Clemson and Georgia
  • Most Semi-Final wins, by two over Clemson
  • Most appearances, by one over Clemson.  
The two-Championship teams:
I have Clemson ahead of Georgia here because while they are tied with two Championships each, Clemson has a substantial lead in appearances (6-3) and has more semi-final wins (4-3).  

The one-Championship teams:
I have tOSU ahead of LSU here because while they are tied with one Championship each, Ohio State has substantial leads in everything else.  Ohio State has more appearances (5-1), more semi-final wins (2-1), and if we looked a non-CFP seasons Ohio State's lead would get even bigger because Ohio State has never missed the CFP by much.  They have five appearances and four near-misses while LSU has one appearance, a few close calls, and some clunkers.  

The one-time semi-final winners:
I have TCU ahead of Oregon here only because TCU's appearance was more recent.  That said, you could make a strong argument for Oklahoma or even Michigan or Notre Dame over either of these two.  

Teams with multiple appearances and no wins:
This seems pretty clear-cut.  I have Oklahoma first because they have the most appearances followed by Michigan then Notre Dame and those two are only differentiated by when those appearances occurred.  

Teams that have been there . . . but haven't won and have only been there once:
These four are simply sorted by recency:
  • 2021 Cincy
  • 2016 Washington
  • 2015 Michigan State 
  • 2014 Florida State


The rich get richer:
The top four teams on this list have between them:

  • Nearly three-fifths of the CFP appearances, 21 out of 36
  • More than 80% of the Semi-Final wins, 15 out of 18
  • Nearly 90% of the CFP Championships, eight out of nine
  • Two-thirds of the CFP game appearances, 36 out of 54
  • More than 85% of the CFP game wins, 23 out of 27
  • Almost half of the CFP game losses, 13 out of 27.  
Nearly all CFP games have involved at least one of Bama, Clemson, UGA, or tOSU:
2014:
One semi-final was tOSU/Bama the other did not involve any of the four.  Ohio State won the CG.  
2015:
Bama and Clemson each won a semi-final and faced each other in the CG.  
2016:
Bama and Clemson each won a semi-final and faced each other in the CG.  
2017:
One semi-final was Clemson/Bama and UGA was in the other one.  Bama beat UGA in the CG.  

2018:
Bama and Clemson each won a semi-final and faced each other in the CG.  
2019:
One semi-final was tOSU/Clemson and the other did not involve any of the four.  Clemson made the CG.  
2020:
One semi-final was tOSU/Clemson and Bama won the other one.  The CG was Bama/tOSU.  
2021:
Bama and UGA each won a semi-final and faced each other in the CG.  
2022:
On semi-final was UGA/tOSU and the other did not involve any of the four.  UGA won the CG.  

Twenty-four of the twenty-seven CFP games have involved at least one of the four (Bama/Clemson/UGA/tOSU) and only three total CFP games have been played without one of the four.  All three were semi-finals and in each case the other semi-final involved two of the four.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2023, 09:20:20 PM »
Nice work 

MarqHusker

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2023, 11:05:00 PM »
It is nice work.  I still don't like the CFP.

Mdot21

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2023, 11:07:37 PM »
It is nice work.  I still don't like the CFP.
I'd like it if it was an actual playoff....as it stands...kinda sucks.

LittlePig

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2023, 09:07:39 AM »
Very nice analysis

I wonder if a better tiebreaker, at least for those that have only appeared once and lost, is to use margin of victory (or actually margin of loss) instead,  rather than ranking based on most recent appearances.

utee94

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2023, 09:21:04 AM »
Yup very interesting, mb1.

Very nice analysis

I wonder if a better tiebreaker, at least for those that have only appeared once and lost, is to use margin of victory (or actually margin of loss) instead,  rather than ranking based on most recent appearances.

That's not a bad idea.  Might apply it to Oregon/TCU as well...

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2023, 10:40:37 AM »
Very nice analysis

I wonder if a better tiebreaker, at least for those that have only appeared once and lost, is to use margin of victory (or actually margin of loss) instead,  rather than ranking based on most recent appearances.
Yup very interesting, mb1.

That's not a bad idea.  Might apply it to Oregon/TCU as well...
Thank you both.  

This is definitely not a bad idea but more work than just using most recent.  Also, what about the 0-2 teams?  Would we use cumulative margin of loss?  

If we did that, for the 0-2 teams:
  • -29 Michigan lost by 6 to TCU in 2022 and by 23 to UGA in 2021
  • -44 Notre Dame lost by 17 to Bama in 2020 and by 27 to Clemson in 2018
For the 0-1 teams:
  • -17 Washington lost 24-7 to Bama in 2016
  • -21 Cincinnati lost 27-6 to Bama in 2021
  • -38 Michigan State lost 38-0 to Bama in 2015
  • -39 Florida State lost 59-20 to Oregon in 2014

For the two 1-1 teams I assume you meant just the CG margin of defeat, right:
  • -22 Oregon lost 42-20 to Ohio State in 2014
  • -58 TCU lost 65-7 to Georgia in 2022
It doesn't actually matter if we make it cumulative with the semi-final, then Oregon would just be farther ahead of TCU:
  • +17 Oregon beat FSU by 39 and lost to tOSU by 22
  • -52 TCU beat M by 6 and lost to UGA by 58
So if we did all of that the new rankings would be:
  • Bama
  • Clemson
  • Georgia
  • Ohio State
  • Louisiana State
  • Oregon (up from 7)
  • TCU (down from 6)
  • Oklahoma
  • Michigan
  • Notre Dame
  • Washington (up from 12)
  • Cincinnati (down from 11)
  • Michigan State
  • Florida State

Frankly that doesn't seem like it was worth the effort.  If the four-team CFP continued indefinitely I would want to use recency because the time becomes a bigger factor as the games are more spread out.  However, it looks like this is only going to last another year or two and then we'll switch to a 12-team model.  


utee94

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2023, 10:44:08 AM »
Thank you both. 

This is definitely not a bad idea but more work than just using most recent.  Also, what about the 0-2 teams?  Would we use cumulative margin of loss? 

If we did that, for the 0-2 teams:
  • -29 Michigan lost by 6 to TCU in 2022 and by 23 to UGA in 2021
  • -44 Notre Dame lost by 17 to Bama in 2020 and by 27 to Clemson in 2018
For the 0-1 teams:
  • -17 Washington lost 24-7 to Bama in 2016
  • -21 Cincinnati lost 27-6 to Bama in 2021
  • -38 Michigan State lost 38-0 to Bama in 2015
  • -39 Florida State lost 59-20 to Oregon in 2014

For the two 1-1 teams I assume you meant just the CG margin of defeat, right:
  • -22 Oregon lost 42-20 to Ohio State in 2014
  • -58 TCU lost 65-7 to Georgia in 2022
It doesn't actually matter if we make it cumulative with the semi-final, then Oregon would just be farther ahead of TCU:
  • +17 Oregon beat FSU by 39 and lost to tOSU by 22
  • -52 TCU beat M by 6 and lost to UGA by 58
So if we did all of that the new rankings would be:
  • Bama
  • Clemson
  • Georgia
  • Ohio State
  • Louisiana State
  • Oregon (up from 7)
  • TCU (down from 6)
  • Oklahoma
  • Michigan
  • Notre Dame
  • Washington (up from 12)
  • Cincinnati (down from 11)
  • Michigan State
  • Florida State

Frankly that doesn't seem like it was worth the effort.  If the four-team CFP continued indefinitely I would want to use recency because the time becomes a bigger factor as the games are more spread out.  However, it looks like this is only going to last another year or two and then we'll switch to a 12-team model. 



Heh, no doubt, you're right about that.

But it was an interesting exercise in picking nits, and that's something we all love to do around here.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2023, 10:49:20 AM »
One of the things I contemplate with this is which teams can catch or be caught.  

For example, the tOSU/UGA semi-final decided #3 on this list.  Had tOSU won they would have more appearances, more semi-final wins, and more Championships.  

Bama:
Their spot at #1 is secure for at least another year.  Even if they miss the CFP in 2023 and their closest contender (Clemson wins the NC) the Tide would still have more semi-final wins than the Tigers and they would have equal numbers of appearances and Championships.  

Clemson:
The Tigers could be surpassed by UGA but the Dawgs would have to make it three-straight Championships to do it because they can neither catch Clemson's appearances nor surpass Clemson's semi-final wins in a single season.  

Georgia:
The Dawgs could be surpassed by tOSU but the Buckeyes would have to win the NC to do it.  If they did, they would have an equal number of Championships and more appearances.  However, if UGA was tOSU's CG opponent then the Dawgs would still have more semi-final wins.  

Ohio State:
The Buckeyes could be surpassed by LSU but the tigers would have to win the NC to do it.  If they did they would have more Championships but they still wouldn't have as many appearances and they would be no better than even in semi-final wins.  

LSU:
The Tigers could be surpassed by any of the remaining teams on this list or caught by any other team in the country.  

The remaining teams:  TCU, Oregon, Oklahoma, Michigan, Notre Dame, Cincy, Washington, Michigan State, Florida State:
These teams could be surpassed by any team winning a semi-final and the last four could be caught simply by any team making the field.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2023, 12:12:34 PM »
Feels odd to weight the appearances so lightly compared to victories.  

I guess it depends on how you define "CFP era performance," but I'm inclined to rank a team like Oklahoma with 4 appearances ahead of a team like LSU with only 1 appearance, even though OU has no wins.  Being there seems like it ought to count for more.  Being there in an elite field of 4 means something, and OU has done it half the time.  

FearlessF

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2023, 12:30:42 PM »
agreed

but 4 straight losses aren't probably as impressive as the 2 game run LSU had that one glorious season
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2023, 02:23:33 PM »
Feels odd to weight the appearances so lightly compared to victories. 

I guess it depends on how you define "CFP era performance," but I'm inclined to rank a team like Oklahoma with 4 appearances ahead of a team like LSU with only 1 appearance, even though OU has no wins.  Being there seems like it ought to count for more.  Being there in an elite field of 4 means something, and OU has done it half the time.
I'm torn on this. Getting there is an accomplishment but the 0-fer records of Oklahoma and the teams below them on my list is problematic because an argument can be made that gettingting there is largely dependent on the strength of your schedule and your league.

Maybe the ranking criteria should be:
  • 3 points for a Championship
  • 2 points for a semi-final win
  • 1 point for an appearance.
A Championship season would be six points:
  • 1 for getting there
  • 2 for winning the semi-final
  • 3 for winning the Championship
A Championship Game loss would be three points.

That wouldn't move Oklahoma ahead of LSU but it would make that close (6-4) and move the Sooners ahead of the Frogs and Ducks (4-3each).

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2023, 02:42:13 PM »

....and move the Sooners ahead of the Frogs and Ducks (4-3each).

I think your list should bury the Frogs in a six-foot hole for.....whatever that was, Monday.  

.....but then move Michigan even below that for losing to them :)

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Ranking CFP era performance
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2023, 06:41:31 PM »
The SEC has won 13 of the last 17 NCs.
The B1G has won 13 of the last 82 NCs.
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