It is funny, I think all of this tOSU vs aTm discussion is missing the point. IMHO, if tOSU beats NU, they are in. Assuming favorites win the ACC, B1G, and SEC CG's, the top three will be:
Further, as far as tOSU is concerned the B1GCG is win or go home. If they lose, they are out. In a normal, full year if the Buckeyes were undefeated at this point at 12-0 and had looked generally like a CFP team in doing so, the Buckeyes would have at least a modicum of a chance with a close loss in the CG. THEN we'd debate 1-loss tOSU vs 1-loss aTm.
In this case with the Buckeyes at 5-0 heading to the CG, it is win = in, lose = out.
Assuming the top three laid out above, the real debate is going to be at #4 between:
- 8-1 aTm (assuming they beat TN)
- 10-1 Notre Dame
- 9-0 Cincy (assuming they beat Tulsa)
You could make a case for one of the other P5 Champs if it is:
- 9-2 ISU with a win over OU, or
- 8-2 OU with a win over ISU, or
- 6-0 USC with a win over UW
However, I think the two losses would knock out ISU/OU and USC is pretty far back with a whole bunch of closer-than-they-should-have-been wins. I just don't think they'll get in.
Finally, I think this whole debate is academic because, as I said upthread, I would take Bama against an all-star team made up of the best players from aTm, ND, and Cincy. Thus, the debate is simply over which team gets to get drilled by Bama in the Sugar Bowl.