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Topic: Rank these teams
(Read 13956 times)

FearlessF · « **Reply #280 on:** December 18, 2020, 11:04:19 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on December 17, 2020, 04:23:36 PM

Hey look, y'all created a realignment thread!

I did some scrolling

Cincydawg · « **Reply #281 on:** December 18, 2020, 11:15:38 AM »

I don't see much pressure now for conference changes, maybe I miss something, and of course we can see one domino change that causes a reaction.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #282 on:** December 18, 2020, 11:34:38 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on December 18, 2020, 11:15:38 AM

I don't see much pressure now for conference changes, maybe I miss something, and of course we can see one domino change that causes a reaction.

That was my point. This conversation started with "how does a G5 team get in the playoff?" and the answer was "you never will unless you find your way into a P5 conference, and if you're good at football for enough years, you'll eventually be P5."

My point was that if you take a team like Cincinnati, we rule out the PAC right away due to geography. So you have 4 potential conferences. ACC/SEC/B1G all have 14 teams and Cincinnati would be dilutive and isn't a good academic or cultural fit.

That leaves the B12, which went through the "should we add teams" bit two years ago and said "none of the available applicants improve our product rather than dilute it, so we'll stand pat at 10."

All this while the cable TV subscription model is being completely destroyed, so the "let's take a team in order to get their TV market eyeballs" rationale is falling apart too.

So my point is that other that disruptive conference realignment chaos, G5 can't get into P5 just by being good at football for a number of consecutive years. There is literally no way for G5 teams to get into the P5 world based on performance--it requires chaos.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #283 on:** December 18, 2020, 11:38:14 AM »

Yeah, I concur.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #284 on:** December 18, 2020, 11:45:31 AM »

If you were to construct a nationwide "conference" with the top G5s available, what would it look like?

Geographically sound "divisions" or "pods" would be needed, imo.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #285 on:** December 18, 2020, 01:29:24 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on December 18, 2020, 11:45:31 AM

If you were to construct a nationwide "conference" with the top G5s available, what would it look like?

Geographically sound "divisions" or "pods" would be needed, imo.

Here are the best winning percentages for current non-P5 teams for the 20 years from 2000-2019 (I'll stop at 16 assuming we don't need more than that for a "conference"). The rank is overall national ranking so all teams not listed are P5 already. Also, I only included teams that were in D1 for at least 18 of the 20 years:

#1 Boise, .83588
#24 Toledo, .63200
#26 No. IL, .62109
#27 BYU, .61961
#29 Cincy, .61811
#38 UCF, .57769
#39 Marshall, .57540
#41 Fresno, .57308
#44 Navy, .56917
#46 Air Force, .56400
#47 USF, .56034
#48 Houston, .55556
#51 Troy, .54077
#52 So. MS, .53360
#55 Ohio, .52191
#56 LaTech, .52000

That would be a WAY better conference than any of the G5 now, but it wouldn't even touch the weakest P5. Plus, remember that they built up those gaudy records playing mostly horrible teams in their weak conferences. If you lumped the best of them together each of their SoS would go up a LOT so it would be unlikely that they could maintain anywhere near that winning percentage.

Pods:

Western: Boise, BYU, Fresno, Air Force
SE: UCF, USF, So. MS, LaTech
MAC: Toledo, No. IL, Ohio, Navy
South: Houston, Troy, Marshall, Cincy

Navy, Marshall, and Cincy are obviously geographically misplaced but I had to stick each somewhere to make the example complete.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #286 on:** December 18, 2020, 01:38:17 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 13, 2020, 06:40:31 PM

Rank these teams 1-10 if they were to play each other in a round-robin tomorrow:
Texas A&M
Cincinnati
Indiana
Iowa State
Coastal Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Oklahoma
USC
BYU

I'd put most of the P5s together in the top group, UGA with the new QB is a pretty good team I think. I have no clue about USC or Iowa State really.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #287 on:** December 18, 2020, 01:44:23 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 18, 2020, 01:29:24 PM

Here are the best winning percentages for current non-P5 teams for the 20 years from 2000-2019 (I'll stop at 16 assuming we don't need more than that for a "conference"). The rank is overall national ranking so all teams not listed are P5 already. Also, I only included teams that were in D1 for at least 18 of the 20 years:
#1 Boise, .83588
#24 Toledo, .63200
#26 No. IL, .62109
#27 BYU, .61961
#29 Cincy, .61811
#38 UCF, .57769
#39 Marshall, .57540
#41 Fresno, .57308
#44 Navy, .56917
#46 Air Force, .56400
#47 USF, .56034
#48 Houston, .55556
#51 Troy, .54077
#52 So. MS, .53360
#55 Ohio, .52191
#56 LaTech, .52000

That would be a WAY better conference than any of the G5 now, but it wouldn't even touch the weakest P5. Plus, remember that they built up those gaudy records playing mostly horrible teams in their weak conferences. If you lumped the best of them together each of their SoS would go up a LOT so it would be unlikely that they could maintain anywhere near that winning percentage.

Pods:
Western: Boise, BYU, Fresno, Air Force
SE: UCF, USF, So. MS, LaTech
MAC: Toledo, No. IL, Ohio, Navy
South: Houston, Troy, Marshall, Cincy

Navy, Marshall, and Cincy are obviously geographically misplaced but I had to stick each somewhere to make the example complete.

This is generally correct. Going to 16 does make the optics look worse. Also worth noting, "their SoS would go up a LOT so it would be unlikely that they could maintain anywhere near that winning percentage." is in fact a truism. If I talk a batch of teams and make them play each other a lot, their raw winning percentages trend toward .500 on average. SOS has nothing to do with that.

Anywho, we're talking about like, less than a team a year that would get much argument. An actual answer would be promotion and relegation, but that's only slightly less feasible than some of the fantasy solutions we've had.

Anyway, Coastal and Cincy are both fun teams this year. I look forward to their bowl swoons when they have their bigger goals denied and can't get up for the games (the secret is that inside all football buildings, expectations are unreasonably high).

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #288 on:** December 22, 2020, 07:09:47 PM »

Boise State, American Athletic Conference evaluating Broncos joining league as 12th football member

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/boise-state-american-athletic-conference-evaluating-broncos-joining-league-as-12th-football-member/

The American Athletic Conference has discussed adding Boise State as a 12th football member, sources tell CBS Sports. Documents obtained by CBS Sports also indicate these conversations have taken place.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #289 on:** December 22, 2020, 08:16:55 PM »

Gonna need some gas money.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #290 on:** December 27, 2020, 12:42:27 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 18, 2020, 01:29:24 PM

Here are the best winning percentages for current non-P5 teams for the 20 years from 2000-2019 (I'll stop at 16 assuming we don't need more than that for a "conference"). The rank is overall national ranking so all teams not listed are P5 already. Also, I only included teams that were in D1 for at least 18 of the 20 years:
#1 Boise, .83588
#24 Toledo, .63200
#26 No. IL, .62109
#27 BYU, .61961
#29 Cincy, .61811
#38 UCF, .57769
#39 Marshall, .57540
#41 Fresno, .57308
#44 Navy, .56917
#46 Air Force, .56400
#47 USF, .56034
#48 Houston, .55556
#51 Troy, .54077
#52 So. MS, .53360
#55 Ohio, .52191
#56 LaTech, .52000

That would be a WAY better conference than any of the G5 now, but it wouldn't even touch the weakest P5. Plus, remember that they built up those gaudy records playing mostly horrible teams in their weak conferences. If you lumped the best of them together each of their SoS would go up a LOT so it would be unlikely that they could maintain anywhere near that winning percentage.

Pods:
Western: Boise, BYU, Fresno, Air Force
SE: UCF, USF, So. MS, LaTech
MAC: Toledo, No. IL, Ohio, Navy
South: Houston, Troy, Marshall, Cincy

Navy, Marshall, and Cincy are obviously geographically misplaced but I had to stick each somewhere to make the example complete.

If I were tasked with "saving" 16 G5s from FCS relegation, I don't think I would go purely on recent results myself. Rather it would be a mix of recent results, markets, stadiums, recruiting, history, tradition etc. For instance I wouldn't "save" Navy and Air Force, while hanging Army out to dry. I would make room for all three.

Pods

Northeast: Army, Navy, Cincinnati, one of Temple/Toledo?
Southeast: Memphis, Tulane, one of Houston/SMUw?, one of UCF/USF?
Inland West: Boise, BYU, Air Force, UNLV
West Coast: Hawaii, Fresno, SDSU, oh I dunno... San Jose? Nevada?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #291 on:** December 29, 2020, 08:29:16 PM »

Both UCF and South Florida would be included. They're both big, growing, and in fertile recruiting grounds.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #292 on:** December 29, 2020, 10:48:44 PM »

Yeah, but they are never both good at the same time. USF was a top ten team for a while, while UCF was going winless in the MAC. Then UCF started raking in National Championships under Scott Frost, while USF went six feet under. Plus you'd have to bump Tulane, and lose New Orleans as a destination, along with their stored SEC! SEC! SEC! history.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #293 on:** December 29, 2020, 10:52:16 PM »

If you're dropping all but 16 P5 programs, both UCF and South Florida would do well. I wonder if Florida's big 3 would try to limit them to only 1 included, though.

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Topic: Rank these teams

FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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Brutus Buckeye

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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bayareabadger

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