I take it the figure is a bit over 50-50. My Dawgs seem more likely to win when they win the toss, but I am sure my memory is hazy on it and they are more like this against similar teams.
I'm still pondering the RB splitting out and being covered by a LB issue. I presume this usually means going empty, so you'd have maybe 3 WRs to the left and the RB split out right and perhaps a TE on the line able to run if not covered up. So, five potential receivers, you'd better be in nickel I think.
The Michigan coverage on that play was actually pretty tight as I recall. The pass was dropped in the bucket.