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Topic: Purdue (3-2, 4-4) at Michigan State (3-2, 5-3) Post Game

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ELA

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Purdue (3-2, 4-4) at Michigan State (3-2, 5-3) Post Game
« on: October 22, 2018, 12:30:52 PM »
Apparently Lewerke was hurt all last week, almost didn't go, and now might be out for the Purdue game.  Harbaugh noticed.


https://twitter.com/AaronMcMann/status/1054405104688865285

I truly have no idea how we are going to beat anyone left save Rutgers, this is basically our second team offense at this point.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 03:36:12 PM by ELA »
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 02:56:32 PM »
Apparently the line opened at -2 MSU, which to be less then 3 points in a home game is basically "coin flip". 
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 03:01:01 PM »
Seems like easy money to bet Purdue.  I guess only counter is the intangible factor of Purdue trying to amp back up after their jihad game.  But strictly personnel and game film, Purdue looks like they should be a substantial favorite.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 04:13:26 PM »
MSU still has far more STARZ, top to bottom, on their roster than Purdue does. 

Now, what plays well for Purdue is scheme. MSU is more pro-style [like Boston College was], and I think Purdue is better built to defend that than the spread. Against OSU, it's not that Purdue stopped OSU from gaining yards. They just managed to stop them from turning yards into touchdowns. Against a more pro-style attack, Purdue might slow them down more, especially if Lewerke doesn't play. 

But MSU is favored for a reason. 
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 04:20:57 PM »
Yeah, but they weren't playing like that, even when healthy, on the offensive side.  Down to #96 now in S&P+.  And that was with a healthy and able Lewerke and Felton Davis.  I also think Purdue is a particularly bad matchup for Michigan State's defense.  They are stout up the middle, and fundamentally sounds, generally, but slow on the edges.  I imagine Blough will get the ball out quick, and Purdue is more than happy abandoning the run game if need be.  I don't think we see another 49-20 type game.

Maybe something closer to 31-17 or 31-20?  I think the defense can hold MSU in it a while, if they can prevent big plays, but it's clear the 3 and outs are wearing on them.  They just looked beat up in the 4th quarter on Saturday.  Nothing left in the tank.  As good as Willis has been this year, he is going to be a mismatch in coverage constantly, just like against Utah State, Arizona State and Northwestern.
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jhetfield99

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2018, 12:11:26 AM »
Don't forget that Dantonio has won like 8 straight vs Purdue after Tiller went 3-0 against Saban and I think 3-1 against John L Smith.

So many of them have been close, but MSU has made more plays to win. 

I was surprised MSU is favored the way Purdue is playing offensively, but if Lewerke is truly out Purdue will truly have to have partied all week and not focused to lose.
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 07:41:23 AM »
Quote from: jhetfield99 on October 23, 2018, 12:11:26 AM
Don't forget that Dantonio has won like 8 straight vs Purdue after Tiller went 3-0 against Saban and I think 3-1 against John L Smith.

So many of them have been close, but MSU has made more plays to win.  

I was surprised MSU is favored the way Purdue is playing offensively, but if Lewerke is truly out Purdue will truly have to have partied all week and not focused to lose.
I would bet Purdue covered a good deal of those.  Remember Purdue gave MSU game after game when MSU was at it's best, and Purdue was at it's lowest.
MSU has a 7 game winning streak going back to 2007.
2007 and 2008 were comfortable wins, but the last 5 have not been.
2009, MSU got bowl eligible over a 4-7 Purdue team by ending the game on a 17-3 run to turn around an 11 point deficit with 11 minutes to go.
2010, a 4-7 Purdue team almost derailed 10-1 MSU's first Big Ten championship in two decades, but again a 22-3 run in the 4th quarter turned a 15 point deficit with 10 minutes to play into a 4 point win
2013, MSU's best team in a generation needed a late TD to go ahead 14-0 over a 1-6 Purdue team.  It was 7-0 almost the whole game, thanks to a defensive TD
2014, 5-1 MSU got a pick 6 in the final 2 minutes, when Purdue had the ball, down 7, with a chance to tie or win
2015, MSU's CFP team raced out to a 21-0 lead, and hung on for a 24-21 win over 1-4 Purdue, who had the ball, past midfield late in the game, with a chance to tie or win.
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 11:56:56 AM »
Lewerke listed as the starter in the Depth Chart released today.  Also includes Stewart, Nailor and Hayes, so while we are still down our top 2 WRs, it seems like for now everyone behind them should play.  Beedle still out, as is Josiah Scott, who teased he might play last week.  Scott is reaching the point where if he gets healthy it would still count as a redshirt year if he plays.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2018, 02:41:17 PM »

Some people here seem to think that the emotional angle is not important but not me.  I believe that this is a very real possibility.  
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2018, 02:56:27 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 23, 2018, 02:41:17 PM
Some people here seem to think that the emotional angle is not important but not me.  I believe that this is a very real possibility.  
I agree, I just don't know what it is.  Is MSU pissed or defeated?  Is Purdue caught in a hangover, or rejuvenated?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2018, 03:20:49 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 23, 2018, 02:56:27 PM
I agree, I just don't know what it is.  Is MSU pissed or defeated?  Is Purdue caught in a hangover, or rejuvenated?
Exactly and that makes this game nearly impossible to project:
  • Pissed off MSU vs hungover PU = MSU blowout win.  
  • Deflated MSU vs rejuvenated PU = PU blowout win.  
I wouldn't be surprised by either or anything in between.  
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jhetfield99

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2018, 08:56:36 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 23, 2018, 07:41:23 AM
I would bet Purdue covered a good deal of those.  Remember Purdue gave MSU game after game when MSU was at it's best, and Purdue was at it's lowest.
MSU has a 7 game winning streak going back to 2007.
2007 and 2008 were comfortable wins, but the last 5 have not been.
2009, MSU got bowl eligible over a 4-7 Purdue team by ending the game on a 17-3 run to turn around an 11 point deficit with 11 minutes to go.
2010, a 4-7 Purdue team almost derailed 10-1 MSU's first Big Ten championship in two decades, but again a 22-3 run in the 4th quarter turned a 15 point deficit with 10 minutes to play into a 4 point win
2013, MSU's best team in a generation needed a late TD to go ahead 14-0 over a 1-6 Purdue team.  It was 7-0 almost the whole game, thanks to a defensive TD
2014, 5-1 MSU got a pick 6 in the final 2 minutes, when Purdue had the ball, down 7, with a chance to tie or win
2015, MSU's CFP team raced out to a 21-0 lead, and hung on for a 24-21 win over 1-4 Purdue, who had the ball, past midfield late in the game, with a chance to tie or win.
Oh I know.  I watched all the plays in all, there in person for all the games at Purdue.

The 2010 collapse was pure Danny Hope coaching goodness served to you guys on a platter.  I remember the long thread back and forth on the old board.  you and a couple MSU posters were all doom and gloom, we kept telling you guys don't worry, banana peel is coming.  Was there a blocked punt in there?  Feels like it.
2009 hurt as that kept Purdue from a bowl when we really needed some momentum.  Team started 1-5, upset #7 OSU and would have bowled with that game.  
2015 was when frosh Markel Jones rushed for like 176 yds against what feels like a #7 or so MSU squad.  Although we sucked, fans were really excited to see what he could do the next week at home.  Naturally Hazell and Co gave him like 10 touches.  Really great staff we had before Brohm.
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ELA

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2018, 10:10:53 PM »
C Matt Allen on crutches in a walking boot, but Josiah Scott has been cleared to start practicing.
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jhetfield99

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Re: Purdue (3-1, 4-3) at Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2018, 10:35:39 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 23, 2018, 03:20:49 PM
Exactly and that makes this game nearly impossible to project:
  • Pissed off MSU vs hungover PU = MSU blowout win.  
  • Deflated MSU vs rejuvenated PU = PU blowout win.  
I wouldn't be surprised by either or anything in between.  
Umm I'll take door 2 por favor.
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