I posted about this in the non-playoff thread, but I think this is a pretty compelling game.
Apparently the early line is Minnesota by 9.5. Not sure I buy it.
Purdue has looked a lot more competitive in their losses than most would have expected, against teams with a combined 12-4 record, two of the three currently being ranked and the other in the ORV category. I'm not sure I buy that Illinois is as good as their ranking, but USC has a hell of an offense and Notre Dame is just generally pretty good. I don't think there's any shame in those losses, and they've averaged ~25 points per game in those 3 losses.
Minnesota obv wasn't going to hang with OSU, but losing to Cal, a team that lost to SDSU and Duke, and whose only other P4 win was over 1-4 Boston College, is not inspiring a lot of confidence. They only managed 3 points against OSU, and only 14 against Cal in their other loss. Cal gave up 45 to Duke and 34 to SDSU in losses, and 24 to BC in their win. So it's not like they've got a lock down D. They scored 31 on Rutgers, but that Rutgers defense allowed IOWA, of all teams, to put up 38 points.
Statistically these teams look fairly equal, with Purdue having the slightly better offense and Minnesota the slightly better defense. But I think when you compare their stats against the strength of the competition they've faced, I don't see a 9.5 point advantage to the Gophers...
