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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #238 on: December 02, 2019, 11:01:59 AM »
It would get interesting.  Realistically, just going by the spreads, the only reasonably likely upset is in the SEC.

LSU has a pretty good resume with a close loss to #4 UGA.  They might drop to #4 and UGA goes to #3.  We'd have UGA-Clemson and OSU-LSU (which might really be the best two teams).  I'm ALL for it.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #239 on: December 02, 2019, 11:19:51 AM »
that would piss off the Big 12 and the PAC

especially if Baylor wins - Baylor would have a decent resume

Utah, not so much
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #240 on: December 02, 2019, 11:23:07 AM »
Could Wisconsin possibly make the playoff?  

I doubt it but here is what I *THINK* would be the best-case-scenario for the Badgers:

  • Wisconsin beats Ohio State to finish 11-2 with a B1G Championship
  • LSU beats UGA
  • UVA beats Clemson
  • Oregon beats Utah

In that case LSU and the Baylor/OU winner would obviously be in.  The contenders for the other two spots would be:

  • 12-1 non-Champion Ohio State
  • 12-1 non-Champion Clemson
  • 11-2 non-Champion Georgia
  • 11-2 non-Champion Utah
  • 11-2 non-Champion Baylor/OU
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Wisconsin
  • 11-2 P12 Champion Oregon
My best guess is that the committee would take the two 12-1 non-Champions but they might decide to take the two 11-2 Champs instead.  

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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #241 on: December 02, 2019, 11:25:02 AM »
so far, the committee has ALWAYS taken the non-champion with fewer losses
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #242 on: December 02, 2019, 12:14:38 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2019, 11:25:02 AM
so far, the committee has ALWAYS taken the non-champion with fewer losses
It is interesting. I know that @OrangeAfroMan hates the way they nearly always rank the undefeated teams first, then the 1-loss teams, then the 2-loss teams, etc.

OAM also generally places less emphasis on Conference Titles than most posters here.

I have also noticed that the Committee has been less likely to penalize teams for losing the extra game that a CG appearance creates. That also bodes well for hypothetical 12-1 LSU/tOSU/Clemson. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #243 on: December 02, 2019, 12:33:43 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on December 02, 2019, 12:14:38 PM

OAM also generally places less emphasis on Conference Titles than most posters here.

OAM is just like the committee
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #244 on: December 02, 2019, 12:42:16 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2019, 12:33:43 PM
OAM is just like the committee
Or I’m just good at describing what they do instead of whining about what they should do.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #245 on: December 02, 2019, 12:46:19 PM »
LSU and OSU are both 100% locks.  Even if either gets blown out.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #246 on: December 02, 2019, 12:58:26 PM »
so, my dream of a CCG upset costing a conference a spot in the playoff is down to the ACC?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #247 on: December 02, 2019, 03:18:13 PM »
I think LSU and OSU are 99% locks.  Clemson would be out if upset (33%).  Dabo would have hair on fire.  Maybe is somehow UGA beat LSU 52-0 they would knock LSU out, but that isn't going to happen.  Clemson is probably 95% certain of a win over UVA, so some of this is talking fringe probabilities.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #248 on: December 02, 2019, 03:26:05 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 02, 2019, 12:58:26 PM
so, my dream of a CCG upset costing a conference a spot in the playoff is down to the ACC?
Didn't cost the XII when OU lost to KSU.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #249 on: December 02, 2019, 05:24:49 PM »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #250 on: December 02, 2019, 07:17:09 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on December 02, 2019, 03:26:05 PM
Didn't cost the XII when OU lost to KSU.
From Bleacher Report (bold is me):

Even before the games were played on that final Saturday, word was that the Sooners would stay No. 1, even if they lost the game.
The computers favored Oklahoma by a wide margin, and since all other major conference teams besides USC and LSU had at least two losses, Oklahoma would not drop to lower than No. 3 in the human polls. Put it together, the Big 12 title game was a mere exhibition with very little riding on it.
And the Sooners played like it, getting pasted by Kansas State, 35-7. After LSU beat Georgia in the SEC title game and USC romped past Oregon State, as expected, the Trojans ascended to No. 1 in both polls, while the Tigers moved up to No. 2.

In the penultimate BCS standings, USC had a comfortable lead on LSU (6.90 vs. 8.43). The Trojans were ranked higher in the human polls and computer rankings and also had better strength-of-schedule ratings. The expectation was that USC would play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl with LSU left to howl.
But then Boise State beat Hawaii in the final regular-season game of the season in the middle of the Pacific.
Say what?
Exactly right, that's what happened. Combined with Syracuse's 38-12 pasting of Notre Dame, the Tigers got enough of a boost to nudge out USC by .16 of a percentage point, getting Oklahoma as their date, while the Trojans were left with a Rose Bowl berth against No. 4 Michigan.


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utee94

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #251 on: December 02, 2019, 07:36:50 PM »
That was a crazy year, as was 2001 when multiple teams lost in the last 2 weeks and kept trading out the #2 spot.  Ultimately I think whoever played in that game was going to get pasted by Miami, so avoiding that humiliation might have been a better result anyway...
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