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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #224 on: December 01, 2019, 08:11:13 PM »
Doc Tom Osborne's Orange bowl in 78!

Many believe the Sooners were the better team that season

unfortunately for Tom, the Sooners got a 2nd chance to prove it
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #225 on: December 01, 2019, 08:55:43 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on December 01, 2019, 08:00:29 PM
What you are doing here is very interesting.

You don't like the CFP, and yet, while arguing that the CCG winner is not necessarily the best team, you are also making the point that winning your conference and going to a good bowl game--the former metric of a successful season--is meaningless because CFP ratings say otherwise.
Umm, not sure what to say about this other than.....it's better to win than to lose?


If you go to a particular bowl, does it matter if you're a conference champion or not?  All these people wanting to expand the playoff to 6 or 8 want conference champs and at-large spots....which renders the conference championship even more meaningless.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #226 on: December 01, 2019, 08:59:41 PM »
I'm SUPER excited that IF Florida makes a NY6 bowl, we'll either get to play Memphis in the Cotton or Virginia in the Orange.  


FUNNNNNNNN
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #227 on: December 01, 2019, 10:01:20 PM »
enjoy
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #228 on: December 01, 2019, 10:10:04 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on December 01, 2019, 08:11:13 PM
Doc Tom Osborne's Orange bowl in 78!

Many believe the Sooners were the better team that season

unfortunately for Tom, the Sooners got a 2nd chance to prove it
:57:
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bayareabadger

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #229 on: December 01, 2019, 10:11:30 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2019, 08:59:41 PM
I'm SUPER excited that IF Florida makes a NY6 bowl, we'll either get to play Memphis in the Cotton or Virginia in the Orange. 


FUNNNNNNNN
Think about it from the other side, you play all year, win a trophy or two, catch a fourth-place team that arrived with a participation ribbon. 

If you're lucky, it'll be Orlando against UW or Penn State. 
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #230 on: December 01, 2019, 10:13:12 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2019, 08:55:43 PM
Umm, not sure what to say about this other than.....it's better to win than to lose?


If you go to a particular bowl, does it matter if you're a conference champion or not?  All these people wanting to expand the playoff to 6 or 8 want conference champs and at-large spots....which renders the conference championship even more meaningless.
You and I are in agreement, it seems, about CCGs and the CFP.
Yet we disagree on so much else.
Weird.
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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #231 on: December 01, 2019, 10:14:38 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on December 01, 2019, 08:59:41 PM
I'm SUPER excited that IF Florida makes a NY6 bowl, we'll either get to play Memphis in the Cotton or Virginia in the Orange. 


FUNNNNNNNN
You should hope that your team doesn't feel the same way, lest it perform a repeat of OU vs. Boise State.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #232 on: December 02, 2019, 09:07:24 AM »
I still think making a NY6 bowl game is a something.  It's not what you want of course, but if you make the playoff, it could be a one and done, which isn't great either, nor is two and done.  It's NC or bust for many fans of major programs, which is a bit of a shame.  I'm trying to see past that.

I still think winning your conference is a Big Thing.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #233 on: December 02, 2019, 10:31:11 AM »
a NY6 bowl is now more like a secondary bowl with the top 4 teams in the playoff

but, still some good matchups with dern fine teams
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #234 on: December 02, 2019, 10:34:32 AM »
It's all what you make of it personally.  That's why I think being a fan of K State would be a fun thing.

Or Ole Miss, my goodness.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #235 on: December 02, 2019, 10:36:03 AM »
I have been rooting for KSU since the 80's, they are a fun team to root for
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #236 on: December 02, 2019, 10:52:22 AM »
I might start an "Adopt-A-Team" thread next season.  Said team will be outside your team's conference and any that interest you.  You would report any details of their season you could glean to the group.  I might think about Louisville.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #237 on: December 02, 2019, 10:54:57 AM »
I think the key question right now is whether or not #1 LSU and/or #2 Ohio State are already CFP "Locks".  

I don't think that they are, but I think that they are awfully close to it.  There are only four 1-loss P5 teams and at least one of them (OU/Baylor) will have to lose this weekend.  Obviously LSU or tOSU with a CG loss will not fall behind any 2-loss teams so realistically a hypothetical 12-1 LSU or tOSU could only possibly be behind:

  • each other
  • Clemson (if they beat UVA)
  • Georgia (if they beat LSU)
  • Utah (if they beat Oregon)
  • OU/Baylor

However, I am not convinced that a hypothetical 12-1 LSU or tOSU would be behind Utah or the OU/Baylor winner.  

Their loss would be better than any of those teams' losses.  The hypothetical losses ranked best to worst:
  • 12-1 LSU lost to #4 UGA but UGA would climb with the CG win over LSU
  • 12-1 tOSU lost to #10 Wisconsin but Wisconsin would climb with the CG win over tOSU  
  • 12-1 Baylor lost to #6 Oklahoma but Oklahoma would drop with the CG loss to Baylor
  • 12-1 Utah lost to #24 USC
  • 12-1 Oklahoma lost to 5-4/8-4 KSU  
  • 12-1 UGA lost at home to a sub .500 USCe team


A hypothetical 12-1 LSU or tOSU would definitively have the best loss among the 1-loss group.  

Wins over currently ranked (AP) teams:
  • LSU:  #7 UF, #9 Bama, #11 Auburn
  • tOSU:  #10 UW, #12 PSU, #17 M, #21 Cincy (Cincy could drop out if they lose to Memphis again)
  • Baylor:  #6 Oklahoma (but OU would drop)
  • Oklahoma:  #8 Baylor (would be twice but Baylor would also drop)
  • Utah:  #13 Oregon (but Oregon would drop)

A hypothetical 12-1 LSU or tOSU would have more and better quality wins than the other 1-loss teams.  

The only problem is that a hypothetical 12-1 LSU or tOSU would not have a conference title which hypothetical 12-1 Utah and the 12-1 OU/Baylor winner would have.  

How important is a conference title to the committee?  If you are in the "13 data points, all are equal" camp then you have to support LSU/tOSU over Baylor/OU/Utah.  If you are in the "you can't be best in the country if you don't win your own conference" camp then you have to support Baylor/OU/Utah over LSU/tOSU.  
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