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Topic: Probable Playoff Teams

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CWSooner

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #42 on: November 24, 2019, 12:15:44 PM »
LSU - UGA winner
Clemson
Ohio State

Utah if they win out.

Maybe LSU if they lose in the CG close.

I don't think Baylor/OU can make up enough ground unless Oregon beats Utah and LSU wins.
I think we're going to see this come Tuesday night:
1. LSU (should be The OSU, but it won't be)
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Bama
6. Utah
7. Oklahoma
It has been opined that Bama is at #5 as a place-holder, that, absent the much-ballyhooed 13th data point, the Tide is not going in ahead of a 1-loss P5 conference champ.
So, IF LSU wins out, or if Georgia finds an offense and blows out LSU, and IF Bama is just a place-holder, it would come down to UU and OU.  Obviously, an Oregon win in the Pac-12 CCG would knock the Utes out of the way and OU (with a win over Baylor) would slide in.
I suppose it is possible that Utah could beat Oregon unconvincingly, and that OU could annihilate Baylor move into 4th place.  But with Jalen Hurts having become a turnover machine, OU is not annihilating anyone, despite major improvements on defense this season.
So, I think that, as a practical matter, it's almost certain that Oregon would need to beat Utah for OU to get into the CFP.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #43 on: November 24, 2019, 12:48:11 PM »
When all things are equal (relatively), I think helmet wins out.
Utah is screwed if it comes down to them and Oklahoma.


*I'd like the virtual tie-breaker to be 'best defense', which has tended to be pretty predictive in the playoff and national championship game play. 

In reality, I do think quality of defense matters to the actual decision-makers, but takes a back seat to helmet and even conference (which shouldn't matter, as we all agree).  OU has helmet over LSU, but LSU has conference over OU.  Neither of their defenses is as good as Utah's, however.  It's all a messy mish-mash.
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FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #44 on: November 24, 2019, 12:56:38 PM »
*I'd like the virtual tie-breaker to be 'best defense', which has tended to be pretty predictive in the playoff and national championship game play. 

I'd like the tie-breaker to be best strength of schedule
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2019, 01:07:48 PM »
12-1 Utah gets in ahead of 12-1 OU, just as they are ahead now in the rankings.

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #46 on: November 24, 2019, 01:36:50 PM »
so, the #1 seed is an advantage
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2019, 04:22:38 PM »
I'd like the tie-breaker to be best strength of schedule
I prefaced it with "if all things are equal" - meaning strength of schedule, record, etc.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #48 on: November 24, 2019, 04:25:56 PM »
12-1 Utah gets in ahead of 12-1 OU, just as they are ahead now in the rankings.
I think the committee would construe OU's potential win over Baylor as more impressive than a potential Utah win over Oregon.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #49 on: November 24, 2019, 05:49:40 PM »
If the scores are disparate, perhaps, but I think Utah has the edge now and would have it after.

FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #50 on: November 24, 2019, 06:42:20 PM »
I prefaced it with "if all things are equal" - meaning strength of schedule, record, etc.
well, SOS would be odd if exactly the same
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #51 on: November 24, 2019, 06:50:33 PM »
well, SOS would be odd if exactly the same
Nevermind then...
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #52 on: November 24, 2019, 07:08:22 PM »
I don't know of a convincing way to compute SOS.  A team that plays say five top  ten opponents and five FCS teams (somehow) is more impressive to me than one who plays 10 top 35 teams, none on the top ten (if they win most of them).


FearlessF

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #53 on: November 24, 2019, 07:14:42 PM »
top 10 teams, top 25 teams, 

any team out of the top 25 in the poll after the conference champ games wasn't worthy
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #54 on: November 24, 2019, 07:31:36 PM »
top 10 teams, top 25 teams,

any team out of the top 25 in the poll after the conference champ games wasn't worthy
Aaaaand you just described a way identical SOS between 2 teams would be unremarkable....:88:
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Cincydawg

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Re: Probable Playoff Teams
« Reply #55 on: November 24, 2019, 07:33:48 PM »
Which of the top ten teams has played the toughest schedule to date?  Or by end of regular season?  LSU?

Clems  ... oh wait.


 

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