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Topic: Preseason Coaches Poll
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medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** August 07, 2024, 01:21:44 PM »

Georgia (46)
Ohio State (7)
Oregon
Texas (1)
Bama
Ole Miss
Notre Dame
Michigan (1)
Penn State
Florida State
Missouri
LSU
Utah
Clemson
Tennessee
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Miami, FL
Texas A&M
Arizona
NCST
USC
Kansas
Iowa

So a third of our teams are ranked and there are others with votes:

26 Washington
34 Wisconsin
42 Maryland
49 Nebraska

I think the ranked teams can be evaluated as pairs since they are so closely grouped:

#2 Ohio State and #3 Oregon:
These two are expected to make the playoff AND contend for the NC. Missing the 12-team playoff would be a major disappointment. Their game at Autzen on October 12 could end up being the first of two or three meetings this year. Aside from facing each other, their other games against ranked teams are:

at #8 Michigan for Ore on 11/2
vs #8 Michigan for tOSU on 11/30
at #9 Penn State for tOSU on 11/2
vs #25 Iowa for tOSU on 10/5 (a week before Oregon so could the Buckeyes get caught looking ahead?)

#8 Michigan and #9 Penn State:
These two are expected to contend for the playoff but missing it wouldn't be THAT big of a disappointment. They don't play each other. Michigan has the chances to take down the top ranked teams in the league and that is either a blessing or a curse depending on how those games go. They get the Ducks at home on 11/2 and the Buckeyes on the road on 11/30. Games against ranked teams:

at #2 Ohio State for M on 11/30
vs #2 Ohio State for PSU on 11/2
vs #3 Oregon for M on 11/2
vs #4 Texas for M on 9/7
at #23 USC for PSU on 10/12
vs #23 USC for M on 9/21

Michigan's schedule is tough, no doubt about it. It helps that they host both Oregon and Texas but if HFA isn't enough to win those games, they could have three losses even as a REALLY good team.

#23 USC and #25 Iowa:
These two project as fringe CG contenders and fringe CFP contenders. If they get a few breaks and the tOSU/Ore loser also loses another league game, they could be right in the mix for a spot in the B1GCG. They don't play each other. Games against ranked teams:

at #2 Ohio State for Iowa on 10/5
at #8 Michigan for USC on 9/21
vs #9 Penn State for USC on 10/12
vs #7 Notre Dame for USC on 11/30

Iowa's schedule is soft. Even if you simply assume that they lose in Columbus they could still take an upset somewhere along the line and end up 10-2. That could be enough to sneak into the B1GCG.

FearlessF · « **Reply #1 on:** August 07, 2024, 10:44:40 PM »

the Huskers got votes???!!!

Geez

drinking the Rhule-aid

847badgerfan · « **Reply #2 on:** August 08, 2024, 08:38:29 AM »

I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.

I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #3 on:** August 08, 2024, 08:40:42 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 08:38:29 AM

I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.

I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.

That’s wild. Been a long time since they split the season series.

(in retrospect, a pretty defining season, for Nebraska in the conference)

Temp430 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 08, 2024, 08:45:24 AM »

I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #5 on:** August 08, 2024, 08:47:31 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on August 08, 2024, 08:40:42 AM

That’s wild. Been a long time since they split the season series.

(in retrospect, a pretty defining season, for Nebraska in the conference)

Me and you got the better end of that split.

FearlessF · « **Reply #6 on:** August 08, 2024, 09:01:57 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 08:38:29 AM

I think UNL is going to be pretty good this season.

I have them beating Wisconsin for the first time since 2012.

if the Huskers beat the Badgers it would be a great season
possibly 9 or 10 wins if that happens
2012 was the last time - 10-4 that season

Cincydawg · « **Reply #7 on:** August 08, 2024, 09:19:58 AM »

I pribably can't do any better, I see some teams I do wonder about, like Ole Miss. I think Missouri would end up 10-2 and ranked in the top ten, same with Tennessee. The Vols have two tough games and then Oklahoma, which might or might not be good. UGA could have a really good team and end up 9-3.

The top 3 nearly always end up in the top ten, FSU one year was 3rd and ended unranked. That is unusual. The top ten preseason usually have 1-2 busts in the 4-10 range, teams that end up 8-4ish.

So much depends on injuries, missed FGs, turnovers, weird plays, ...

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 08, 2024, 09:55:41 AM »

Quote from: Temp430 on August 08, 2024, 08:45:24 AM

I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.

The trouble for Michigan is that they have no room for error. Per the preseason rankings they are playing three top-4 teams:

at #2 Ohio State
vs #3 Oregon
vs #4 Texas

With that schedule they could be REALLY good, like top-10 good and suffer no upsets and still only end up 9-3.

The oddity to Michigan's schedule is that there isn't much "middle" to it. They have the aforementioned three top-4 teams, then a home game against #23 USC and a road game against almost-ranked Washington. Lets say they go 9-3 with losses to the three top-4 teams. It will be tough to tell if they are #5 or #20. All we'll know for sure is that they aren't quite as good as the top-4, no shame in that, and they are better than the barely-ranked teams which isn't all that impressive.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #9 on:** August 08, 2024, 12:25:10 PM »

Quote from: Temp430 on August 08, 2024, 08:45:24 AM

I think Michigan may be a bit over rated. They'll be good but need a serviceable QB that can complete more than the high percentage passes to compete for the Big Ten title. Haven't seen that from any of Michigan's QBs to date.

kind of where I'm at. schedule is brutal as hell and the QB situation is VERY iffy and unproven. They'll rebuild the OL successfully imo. They have really good RB's led by Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland is a stud TE.

the only reason I'm pretty high on them at all though is their defense. it should once again be very gnarly, even with the losses of nickel Mike Sainstril, ILB Juinor Colson, DT Kris Jenkins Jr., EDGE Jaylen Harrell, and EDGE Braiden McGregor. DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, EDGE Derrick Moore, ILB Jaishawn Barham, and ILB Ernest Hausmann were all just true sophomores last year. They are all already very good players with room to improve and every single one of those guys is a future Sunday player. Mason Graham and Will Johnson were both named top at their positions by PFF and are both mocked as top 10 draft picks in 2025. Kenneth Grant was named the 4th best DT by PFF and he's being mocked as a 1st round pick as well.

The transfer Barham has been making huge noise in spring and fall- lot of the insidery types are expecting him to be an even better player than Junior Colson and a potential 1st round pick. FS Rod Moore will be out for at least half the year and that's a huge blow as he's a borderline elite safety- but he is expected to comeback and he's one of the very best free safeties in the entire country. The other safeties Makari Paige and Quentin Johnson are very good and very experienced. EDGE Josaiah Stewart returns for his SR and he was their best pure pass rusher in his first year on the team as a transfer last season. Rayshaun Benny returns from a late season 2023 injury to help add depth to their DT rotation- and that kid is severely underrated- very good ball player and would be a starter at most other B1G schools and would've been one at Michigan already if not for the fact that he had two 1st round picks (Graham & Grant) and a 2nd round pick in front him at DT (Kris Jenkins Jr.). Watch out for Jyaire Hill at CB2....feel like he's going to breakout in a big way in his 2nd year and Michigan will have an elite CB duo. Call it a hunch- he just physically/athletically looks the part of what you'd want to build a CB in a lab to look like- much like Will Johnson.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #10 on:** August 08, 2024, 12:32:55 PM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on August 08, 2024, 12:25:10 PM

kind of where I'm at. schedule is brutal as hell and the QB situation is VERY iffy and unproven. They'll rebuild the OL successfully imo. They have really good RB's led by Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland is a stud TE.

the only reason I'm pretty high on them at all though is their defense. it should once again be very gnarly, even with the losses of nickel Mike Sainstril, ILB Juinor Colson, DT Kris Jenkins Jr., EDGE Jaylen Harrell, and EDGE Braiden McGregor. DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, EDGE Derrick Moore, ILB Jaishawn Barham, and ILB Ernest Hausmann were all just true sophomores last year. They are all already very good players with room to improve and every single one of those guys is a future Sunday player. Mason Graham and Will Johnson were both named top at their positions by PFF and are both mocked as top 10 draft picks in 2025. Kenneth Grant was named the 4th best DT by PFF and he's being mocked as a 1st round pick as well.

The transfer Barham has been making huge noise in spring and fall- lot of the insidery types are expecting him to be an even better player than Junior Colson and a potential 1st round pick. FS Rod Moore will be out for at least half the year and that's a huge blow as he's a borderline elite safety- but he is expected to comeback and he's one of the very best free safeties in the entire country. The other safeties Makari Paige and Quentin Johnson are very good and very experienced. EDGE Josaiah Stewart returns for his SR and he was their best pure pass rusher in his first year on the team as a transfer last season. Rayshaun Benny returns from a late season 2023 injury to help add depth to their DT rotation- and that kid is severely underrated- very good ball player and would be a starter at most other B1G schools and would've been one at Michigan already if not for the fact that he had two 1st round picks (Graham & Grant) and a 2nd round pick in front him at DT (Kris Jenkins Jr.). Watch out for Jyaire Hill at CB2....feel like he's going to breakout in a big way in his 2nd year and Michigan will have an elite CB duo. Call it a hunch- he just physically/athletically looks the part of what you'd want to build a CB in a lab to look like- much like Will Johnson.

This is also a tough schedule.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #11 on:** August 08, 2024, 12:44:29 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 08, 2024, 12:32:55 PM

This is also a tough schedule.

yeah that's pretty god damn tough too.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #12 on:** August 08, 2024, 01:00:46 PM »

I would be very, very happy with 8-4 with that schedule. Anything more than 8, I would be ecstatic.

I do think they can beat USC and give Bama a game in Madison. PSU has their number of late. Oregon, even in Madison, is a tough one.

At Iowa, at NU, and at Nebraska are never easy. Even at Rutgers could be tough. They are getting better.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #13 on:** August 08, 2024, 01:24:56 PM »

I feel like Wisconsin's schedule doesn't quite have the top-end that Michigan's has but it is deeper. Michigan plays three of the preseason top-4 teams, that is a brutal top end but after that there is a notable dropoff. Wisconsin "only" has one of the preseason top-4 but they have more ranked teams overall and they have Rutgers and Nebraska both of whom have potential to end up ranked.

I'll also note that Wisconsin's schedule would be ideal for a NC contender. They get all their toughest opponents at home:

#3 Oregon in Camp Randall on 11/16
#5 Bama in Camp Randall on 9/14
#9 Penn State in Camp Randall on 10/26

The problem is that if Wisconsin isn't close enough to take those teams out with Camp Randall's famously strong HFA, the Badgers could be looking at a slew of losses because the next group are all on the road:

#23 USC at the LA Coliseum on 9/28
#25 Iowa at Kinnick on 11/2
ORV Nebraska at Memorial Stadium on 11/23
pretty good Rutgers in Jersey on 10/12

This is a great schedule for a top-5 team but it could be a brutal schedule for a team at the fringes of being good enough to be ranked.

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Topic: Preseason Coaches Poll

medinabuckeye1

Preseason Coaches Poll

FearlessF

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847badgerfan

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bayareabadger

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Temp430

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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medinabuckeye1

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