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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?
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FearlessF · « **Reply #238 on:** November 17, 2017, 06:02:28 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2017, 05:29:20 PM

It's not UW's fault that BYU went in the shitter and no big schools will schedule them other than for "neutral" games. It is what it is.

you are certainly correct, Sir
but, then it's no fault of any other program in the top 10 hoping to sway the committee into putting them in the top 4.
seems a bit ironic that a few seasons ago Barry didn't like the idea of a murder's row schedule and this season the schedule is too soft
I think we will see in the end, that playing a soft schedule is the best way into the playoff. Just win them all and you're in. Soft schedule or not.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #239 on:** November 17, 2017, 06:40:40 PM »

With the Pac Champion guaranteed to have at least two losses I think the most important question right now is what would the committee do with a 1-loss non-Champion?

Last year, of course, Ohio State got in as a 1-loss non-Champion but Ohio State last year had some things going for it that are not everyday occurrences:

Ohio State had a H2H blowout win on the road over 2-loss B12 Champion Oklahoma
The other 2-loss Champion (PSU) had two really bad losses (big points loss to Michigan, loss to mediocre Pitt).

There might not be any 1-loss non-Champions:

If Bama wins out they will be 13-0 and all other SEC teams will have at least two losses.
If Miami wins out they will be 13-0 and all other ACC teams will have at least two losses.

There are not a lot of potential 1-loss non-Champions left. They are:

#1 Bama: If the Tide lose to either Auburn or UGA they will finish either 11-1 or 12-1 and a non-Champion.
#3 Miami: If the Hurricanes win out to the ACCCG then lose to Clemson they will finish 12-1 and a non-Champion.
#5 Wisconsin: If the Badgers win out to the B1GCG then lose to Ohio State (and it would almost certainly be Ohio State) they will finish 12-1 and a non-Champion.

That is it. There are no other potential 1-loss P5 non-Champions. Where would those teams be ranked relative to potential 2-loss Champions:

#2 Clemson could be a 2-loss Champion if they lose to USCe
#4 Oklahoma could be a 2-loss Champion if they lose to WVU
#6 Auburn could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out
#7 UGA could be a 2-loss Champion if they lose to either Kentucky or GaTech
#9 Ohio State could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out
#10 Penn State could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out (and get some major help)
#11 USC could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out
#12 TCU could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out
#13 OkSU could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out (and get some major help)
#14 WSU could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out
#18 Washington could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out (and get some major help)
#24 Michigan could be a 2-loss Champion if they win out (and get some major help)

FearlessF · « **Reply #240 on:** November 17, 2017, 07:25:21 PM »

1-loss non-champ vs 2-loss champ would be interesting and put pressure on the committee

1-loss Bama is probably in, 1-loss Miami and 1-loss Wisconsin probably out

TresselownsUM · « **Reply #241 on:** November 17, 2017, 09:27:17 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on November 17, 2017, 05:29:20 PM

It's not UW's fault that BYU went in the shitter and no big schools will schedule them other than for "neutral" games. It is what it is.

Yes it is. BYU the last 10 years is an avg 8 win program. That's not bad, but BYU is getting most of their wins against Idaho, San Jose st, Utah st uconns of the world. Who did you think you were scheduling? Alabama? BYU would be a middling BIG 10 team at best. BYU, FAU, UTAH st. That's a murderers row.

I'm tired of hearing no one will do a home and home with Wisconsin, it's a total BS excuse. Ohio st did a home and home with Toledo, Michigan st has played at MAC schools, get off your high horse and quit asking for 2-for-1 games against "perceived" lesser teams and tell Barrie to man up and play power 5 schools. Wisconsin can't get a home and home with: Missouri, South Carolina, TCU, Iowa st, cal, Oregon, wash st, ucla, Texas am, Arkansas, ga tech, Pitt, west va etc?

Come on now, pick up the phone

MaximumSam · « **Reply #242 on:** November 27, 2017, 08:10:06 PM »

I'm really not sure what to think.

The obvious is a lineup of Auburn/Georgia, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Miami/Clemson, and if Wiscy or OU loses we don't know what will happen.

I've soured on Bama's chances. I could be wrong, but was thinking back to the LSU/Bama BCs game and how much of a debacle that was. It was completely unsatisfying to everyone not rooting for Bama or LSU. The committee is not a bunch of SEC fans, and I'm not sure they will feel very motivated to get two SEC teams in there (especially with as poor as much of the SEC was this year).

Bama is not OSU from last year. OSU last year had some really strong wins (over Oklahoma, over Michigan, over Wisconsin). Bama this year has pretty mediocre wins, and nothing really knocks your socks off except for their jerseys. I would be surprised if the committee works hard to get them in. But I'm also not sure who they would lean towards - USC or TCU might be a surprise choice.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #243 on:** November 27, 2017, 09:56:00 PM »

Quote from: TresselownsUM on November 17, 2017, 09:27:17 PM

Yes it is. BYU the last 10 years is an avg 8 win program. That's not bad, but BYU is getting most of their wins against Idaho, San Jose st, Utah st uconns of the world. Who did you think you were scheduling? Alabama? BYU would be a middling BIG 10 team at best. BYU, FAU, UTAH st. That's a murderers row.

I'm tired of hearing no one will do a home and home with Wisconsin, it's a total BS excuse. Ohio st did a home and home with Toledo, Michigan st has played at MAC schools, get off your high horse and quit asking for 2-for-1 games against "perceived" lesser teams and tell Barrie to man up and play power 5 schools. Wisconsin can't get a home and home with: Missouri, South Carolina, TCU, Iowa st, cal, Oregon, wash st, ucla, Texas am, Arkansas, ga tech, Pitt, west va etc?

Come on now, pick up the phone

Me? I didn't schedule Bama. King Barry did.

Who do I think I could get? Nobody. I'm just an Engineer and former booster.

I should pick up the phone? Sure. Let's do a conference call with me, you, King Barry and all of the schools you mentioned.

I'm sure the all of those schools would all LOVE to schedule a sure loss. But yeah, since YOU have them all on speed dial, I'll get King Barry on a conference call.

You can call 847-KMA-STFU.

Password is CLUELESS.

I bid you good evening.

FearlessF · « **Reply #244 on:** November 27, 2017, 10:10:11 PM »

hah, I always wondered about the 847

perhaps I asked and was told before

MaximumSam · « **Reply #245 on:** November 29, 2017, 07:02:20 AM »

1	Clemson University	11-1
2	Auburn University	10-2
3	University of Oklahoma	11-1
4	University of Wisconsin	12-0
5	University of Alabama	11-1
6	University of Georgia	11-1
7	University of Miami	10-1
8	Ohio State University	10-2

MaximumSam · « **Reply #246 on:** November 29, 2017, 07:04:06 AM »

The comments from the committee made it seem like these were the only teams that mattered, though I think TCU could jump up there and maybe USC. Still, some interesting comments along the lines of "teams 5-8 are super close and a conference championship might settle it" which seems like a big hint on what they are thinking. But since this is all about what people are thinking, who knows

rolltidefan · « **Reply #247 on:** November 29, 2017, 10:22:58 AM »

i didn't get to watch all of it, but from what i caught from the cfp spokesman, seemed like they would lean osu over bama in that scenario.

all bama fans are talking about bama/osu, but i've been saying best scenario for bama is ou losing to tcu. that pretty much guarantees bama is in. at least i think it does.

Entropy · « **Reply #248 on:** November 29, 2017, 11:12:40 AM »

Not suggesting that is how I feel it should happen, but rather what I think will happen.

ACC champ
SEC Champ
Wisky
OU

If either Wisky or OU loses, bama is in. If both lose, then the committee will most likely chose OSU. Again, I think that is what would happen regardless of personal feelings.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #249 on:** November 29, 2017, 11:31:47 AM »

if both lose, the argument is picking 2 from the 4:
2 loss b1g champ osu
1 loss non-champ bama
2 loss bigxii champ tcu
and potentially 2 loss pac champ usc

edit: could also throw in 1 loss non champ wisk in there, but, rightly or wrongly, they aren't going to get the same love bama is getting in all likelyhood.

i think bama and osu are both in if that happens.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #250 on:** November 29, 2017, 12:01:10 PM »

I think that Max's list includes all the contenders. The committee only moved Ohio State, Penn State, USC, and TCU up one spot each from 9-12 to 8-11. They all passed former #8 Notre Dame which lost to Stanford. Stanford moved up nine spots to #12 but it does not matter. They have three losses so even if the beat USC to be P12 Champion they'll be 10-3 and a 3-loss team is not going to the playoffs.

Here is what we know:

#1 or #7 will lose
#2 or #6 will lose
#3 or #11 will lose
#4 or #8 will lose
#5 will sit idle and hope for losses by #3 and/or #4.
#9 is idle and has no chance.
#10 or #12 will lose but neither has a chance.

That covers the top-12 and nobody behind that is even relevant to the discussion.

For each team:

Clemson is obviously in if they beat #7 Miami and out if they lose. If they lose to Miami they'll be an 11-2 non-Champion and that will not get them in ahead of undefeated, 1-loss, or 2-loss Champions or 1-loss non-Champion Bama.
Auburn is obviously in if they beat #6 UGA and out if they lose. If they lose to Georgia they'll be a 10-3 non-Champion.
Oklahoma is obviously in if they beat #11 TCU and out if they lose. If they lose to TCU they'll be an 11-2 non-Champion in the same boat as a losing Clemson (see above).
Wisconsin is obviously in if they beat #8 Ohio State and out if they lose. If they lose to tOSU they'll be a 12-1 non-Champion. That might get some teams in, but those teams don't have Wisconsin's schedule.
Alabama is most likely the next team in but the problem for them is that losses by either #1 Clemson or #2 Auburn would not help. That is because the teams playing Clemson and Auburn are ranked #6 and #7 and would leap-frog over the Tide by gaining the combination of a Conference Championship and a quality win over #1 or #2. Therefore, Bama fans have no real reason to care about the ACC and SEC CG's and should focus instead on the B1G and B12 CG's. If TCU wins then Bama is a lock. If OU and tOSU win then it is a really close call between tOSU and Bama. Ohio State would have better wins, worse losses, more losses, and a Conference Championship. Bama would have worse wins, a better loss, less losses, and no Conference Championship.
Georgia is in with a win and out with a loss.
Miami is in with a win and out with a loss.
Ohio State has a chance with a win and is obviously out with a loss.
Penn State has no chance despite the fact that I personally think they are one of the top-4 this year.
USC has no chance because they somehow managed to have the quietest helmet team 10-2 season I can remember.
TCU has no chance because they can't make up enough ground to get there. If they win they will pass most or all of the teams ahead of them that lose, but they will not pass the ones that win or Bama.
Stanford has no chance because even with a win they'll still be the weakest P5 Champion.

Kris61 · « **Reply #251 on:** November 29, 2017, 07:40:55 PM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on November 29, 2017, 10:22:58 AM

i didn't get to watch all of it, but from what i caught from the cfp spokesman, seemed like they would lean osu over bama in that scenario.

all bama fans are talking about bama/osu, but i've been saying best scenario for bama is ou losing to tcu. that pretty much guarantees bama is in. at least i think it does.

I agree.

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Topic: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

FearlessF

Re: Playoffs! Did someone say Playoffs?

medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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TresselownsUM

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MaximumSam

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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MaximumSam

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MaximumSam

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rolltidefan

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Entropy

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rolltidefan

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medinabuckeye1

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Kris61

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