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Topic: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend

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Kris60

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2018, 05:45:41 PM »
I don't disagree . . . now.  I'll also add that this is extremely unlikely to be relevant to Ohio State.  That said, IF Ohio State somehow manages to win back-to-back games against Michigan and Northwestern it is certain that, at that point, Ohio State will look better than Washington State.  
I'll add the same thing wrt Oklahoma.  IF they manage to beat WVU and (probably Texas but possible WVU again) in back-to-back games they will, at that point, look better than WSU.  
IMHO, among the potential 1-loss P5 Champions (excluding Bama and Clemson on the assumption that they will be undefeated and Georgia on the assumption that Bama will beat them) the order is:
  • Michigan
  • Oklahoma (but possibly Ohio State if the Buckeyes won big while OU was winning ugly)
  • Ohio State
  • Washington State

No, I agree with that.  Oklahoma and Ohio St have a little more meat left on their schedule.

Kris60

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2018, 07:56:57 PM »
Georgia would be 11-2.  WVU would be 10-2 because of the cancelled NCST game.  I think the Conference Championship would prevail here but it would be a close call.  
I have no real hope WVU will be in the playoff discussion but if that were to happen I’d hope the commitee would take a deeper look at the “extra data point” that UGA would have.  WVU would actually have played more P5 opponents than UGA (11 to 10) despite UGA having the extra game.  UGA’s extra data point would basically be UMass, Austin Peay, or Middle Tennessee St.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2018, 11:24:17 AM »
No, I agree with that.  Oklahoma and Ohio St have a little more meat left on their schedule.
I'd apply the same thoughts to UCF.  I think they are too high right now but I don't much care that they are ahead of Ohio State at this point.  However, if by some miracle the Buckeyes manage to win the next two weekends then after that it would be patently ridiculous to rank UCF ahead of Ohio State.  UCF's best win is over a 9-2 Cincinnati team.  If they win out they will pick up wins over 7-4 (then 7-5) USF and either 9-3 (then 9-4) Houston or 8-4 (then 8-5) Memphis.  Meanwhile Ohio State would pick up wins over 10-1 (then 10-2) Michigan and either 8-4 or 7-5 (then 8-5 or 7-6) Northwestern.  UCF would have a grand total of zero wins over ranked teams while Ohio State would have:
  • A win over current #4 Michigan which would drop to about #10 at 10-2.  
  • A win over current #12 Penn State which will finish ranked about #10 9-3 or about #17 at 8-4
  • A win over current #19 Northwestern which would finish ranked about #24 at 8-5 or unranked at 7-6.  

Same goes for Oklahoma.  If the Sooners win out they'll have multiple wins over ranked teams and be 12-1 while UCF can do no better than 13-0 with MAYBE one win over a ranked team (if Cincy gets back in).  

utee94

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2018, 11:33:28 AM »
I have no real hope WVU will be in the playoff discussion but if that were to happen I’d hope the commitee would take a deeper look at the “extra data point” that UGA would have.  WVU would actually have played more P5 opponents than UGA (11 to 10) despite UGA having the extra game.  UGA’s extra data point would basically be UMass, Austin Peay, or Middle Tennessee St.
Yeah, I don't have much hope they'd actually consider it this way, but it would be nice if they did.

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2018, 12:04:57 PM »
UGA has a weak slate this year.  Their ONLY shot is somehow 12-1 and beating Bama.  Maybe there is some weird situation where they could lose to Tech, but I doubt it.

LittlePig

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2018, 01:35:22 PM »
I'm not so sure.  If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions.  I have no idea how the committee value that.  In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion.  I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams.  Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in.  The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.  
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation.  As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".  
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.  
Sure, it would be strange if the committee picked a 12-1 Bama over an 11-2 Ga just after Ga beat Bama in the SEC CCG.
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
Now I know the 2 situations are not exactly the same, but there is a precedent there for a 1-loss non champion to be picked over the 2-loss champion even though the 2 loss champion beat the non champion H2H.

TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2018, 01:42:59 PM »
 
IMHO an 11-1 Notre Dame would finish behind all undefeated and 1-loss P5 Champions.  
Multiple sites are now thinking that 11-1 ND would stay ahead of 12-1 OSU because of our piss poor offense and inconstant run game.

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2018, 01:47:05 PM »
It's an interesting question whether a team that looked truly dominant all year (outside a first half against CItadel!!!!) would finish 12-1 and be left out.

I think most would agree that an Alabama that had a flukey loss to UGA would probably still be the best team in the country.

But, they just lost in what in effect is a quarterfinal.  Do they get a do over?  I'd say not, but who knows?

FearlessF

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2018, 02:01:30 PM »
well, I'll just root for a 28 point win by the Dawgs over Bammer

nothing flukey about it
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2018, 02:04:58 PM »
I will as well obviously, but realistically, I think the Dawgs' chances here would require a 3-0 turnover break AND a special teams play for UGA.

They have looked a bit better since that LSU fiasco, but the OL is in bad shape on the injury front.

TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2018, 02:14:13 PM »
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.

Would it be fair to make a differentiation between a "bad loss" and an "embarrassing loss"?  
A bad loss is losing to .500 team or or worse; ie. a team that should have no business beating a National Title Contending team. The committee doesn't seem to penalize that much for bad losses.
An Embarrassing Loss is getting blown out by 4 scores or more. ie. looking really bad while losing a game. I think the committee has knocked teams hard enough to keep Embarrassing teams out of the playoff.
Penn State in 2016 had an embarrassing loss to M*ch*g*n 49-10, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Ohio State in 2017 had an embarrassing loss to Iowa 55-24, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Both times to a "better looking" non champ.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 02:23:30 PM by TyphonInc »

Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2018, 02:35:01 PM »
The simplest explanation is that a one loss nonchamp is preferred over a two loss champ.

And yes, I recall Auburn.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2018, 03:34:36 PM »
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
I hope you don't think I'm being homerish here because I a consistent advocate for "body of work" over H2H.  Another issue that comes into play here is HFA which I consistently assert is a bigger factor than most people give it credit for.  
Both of those come into play in the 2016 situation.  First, Penn State's entire body of work was indisputably weaker than Ohio State's.  The Nittany Lions had more losses (two vs one), worse losses (both were worse, Pitt because of the opponent and Michigan because of the score), and less quality wins.  Second, the H2H was a close game on PSU's home field.  
Finally, I hope that the CFP committee values SoS.  I certainly think that they should.  In 2016 that was another factor in Ohio State's favor.  The Buckeyes owned a road win over the B12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners and had tougher B1G-W cross-overs than PSU.  
I like the way the CFP committee has generally treated H2H because it is what I do when I do my Power Ranking votes.  I use it as a tiebreaker of sorts for teams that are close overall.  However, it is not the end-all-be-all.  It can't be because then you inevitably run into the A<B<C<A conundrum.  For example, in 2016, Penn State beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Michigan, Michigan beat Penn State.  
If Penn State had beaten the Panthers or been reasonably competitive with the Wolverines then they probably would have gotten in ahead of the Buckeyes.  If they had done both then it wouldn't have even been a discussion.  They didn't and consequently their entire body of work was not close enough to Ohio State's to bring the H2H "tiebreaker" into play.  
The situation at hand might be similar to the 2016 tOSU/PSU situation.  Assume:
  • Bama beats Auburn, and
  • GaTech beats Georgia, and
  • Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.  
Georgia would be SEC Champions but have two losses:
  • By 20 points at LSU, and
  • To a mediocre (at best) GaTech team
Bama would not be a Champion but they would have a decent case based on manhandling their schedule.  The weakness in Bama's argument is that their SoS wasn't very good.  Their OOC turned out to be complete trash and their two SEC-E opponents (TN and Mizzou) were two of the worst three teams in the SEC-E.  Their best two wins would be LSU and aTm.  If aTm wins this weekend then Bama would have two wins over ranked teams but those teams would be ranked ~12-17.  If LSU wins then Bama would likely finish the season with only one win over a ranked team.  To their credit, their loss to Georgia would be a really "good" loss.  

« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 06:22:12 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into rivalry weekend
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2018, 03:36:18 PM »
Would it be fair to make a differentiation between a "bad loss" and an "embarrassing loss"?  
A bad loss is losing to .500 team or or worse; ie. a team that should have no business beating a National Title Contending team. The committee doesn't seem to penalize that much for bad losses.
An Embarrassing Loss is getting blown out by 4 scores or more. ie. looking really bad while losing a game. I think the committee has knocked teams hard enough to keep Embarrassing teams out of the playoff.
Penn State in 2016 had an embarrassing loss to M*ch*g*n 49-10, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Ohio State in 2017 had an embarrassing loss to Iowa 55-24, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Both times to a "better looking" non champ.
It is impossible to tell because in both of those situations the team that got left out had BOTH:
  • An embarrassing loss (PSU to Michigan, tOSU to Iowa), AND
  • Two losses
We can't really tell which of those two things was more important.  

 

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