CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 20, 2018, 12:12:48 PM
-
It seems like a weird season. The top-3 haven't changed much all year and if they keep winning the only possible debate will be for the #4 spot.
In theory we could have Bama, Clemson, and Notre Dame all undefeated and obviously in with three 1-loss P5 Champs (tOSU/M, OU, WSU) in contention for the fourth spot.
Of course we could also see everything turn upside down over the next two weeks and end up with a real mess.
- 11-0 Bama, vsAuburn, vs#5 UGA-SECCG: The Auburn game only matters if Bama loses to UGA and even then it might not. If Bama wins the SECCG, they are in. If they lose it they have a chance with a win over Auburn. If they lose both, they are out.
- 11-0 Clemson, vsUSCe, vs#24 Pitt-ACCCG: Basically the same as Bama only with a smaller chance as a one-loss non-Champion. As long as they beat Pitt, they are in. The USCe game probably doesn't matter.
- 11-0 Notre Dame, @USC: This one is simple. Win in SoCal this weekend and they are in. Lose and they need LOTS of help.
- 10-1 Michigan, @#10 tOSU, vs#20 NU-B1GCG (assuming they beat tOSU): They need to win both and if they do they are about a 95% chance to make the CFP. Lose either one and they are out.
- 10-1 Georgia, vsGaTech, vs#1 Bama-SECCG: The GaTech might not matter. They need to win both to feel safe but losing to GaTech then beating Bama would be better than the reverse.
- 10-1 Oklahoma, @#12 WVU, vs #11 TX or #12 WVU - B12CG: They need to win both to have a real shot.
- 10-1 Washington State, vs#16 UW, vs #18 Utah-P12CG (assuming they beat UW): They need to win both to have a real shot.
- 10-0 UCF: No serious shot.
- 9-2 LSU: No serious shot.
- 10-1 Ohio State, vs #4 Michigan, vs #20 NU-B1GCG (assuming they beat M): They need to win both and if they do they have a shot at the CFP but it would depend on how the B12 and P12 races finish among other things.
IMHO, that is it. Eight teams are still in contention.
All five P5 leagues are still capable of producing an undefeated or one-loss Champion and if Notre Dame wins Saturday night then two of them will be left out.
A USC win this weekend (Saturday, 8pm on ABC) would be a HUGE help for OU (if they beat WVU Friday night), WSU (if they beat UW Friday night), and the tOSU/M winner. IMHO an 11-1 Notre Dame would finish behind all undefeated and 1-loss P5 Champions. However, a 1-loss Notre Dame could still sneak into the playoff if the B12, B1G, and P12 all fail to produce a Champion with less than two losses (unlikely but not completely implausible).
-
I think UGA has to beat Tech to have any shot realistically (and Bama as well).
We could end up with OU, UM/OSU, and Wazzu at 12-1, and possibly UGA as well. UGA would probably just replace Alabama, so that outcome does not impact the other three.
Toughest scenario is OSU wins two close games, OU wins two close games, and Wazzu wins fairly convincingly. There is no obvious choice, though I'd like to see OU matched up with Bama.
-
I haven’t given up hope. If WVU wins out I’m hoping for:
GT to beat UGA
TAMU to beat LSU
UCF to lose one of its next two
Wazzu to lose one of its next two
Northwestern to win the Big Ten
Chances of all that happening? Minuscule. But it’s fun to dream.
-
I think UGA has to beat Tech to have any shot realistically (and Bama as well).
I'm not so sure. If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions. I have no idea how the committee value that. In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion. I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams. Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in. The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation. As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.
-
I'm not so sure. If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions. I have no idea how the committee value that. In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion. I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams. Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in. The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation. As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.
Would a 10-2 UGA get in over a 10-2 WVU that has a conference title?
-
Tech is 7-4, after a 1-3 start, they aren't that bad really. But UGA's OOC slate this year is bad, they don't get a boost from beating a Notre Dame, or even another P5 team.
I wouldn't include them if a 12-1 conference champ was available.
-
There was some talking head insisting that if both OSU and Wazzou win out, then Wazzoo is the obvious choice.
"What was his reasoning?" you ask.
Well it is actually quite simple.
"You can't leave a one-loss Pac 12 Champion outta the Playoffs!"
-
Would a 10-2 UGA get in over a 10-2 WVU that has a conference title?
Georgia would be 11-2. WVU would be 10-2 because of the cancelled NCST game. I think the Conference Championship would prevail here but it would be a close call.
-
There was some talking head insisting that if both OSU and Wazzou win out, then Wazzoo is the obvious choice.
"What was his reasoning?" you ask.
Well it is actually quite simple.
"You can't leave a one-loss Pac 12 Champion outta the Playoffs!"
I have no problem with Ohio State being behind WSU right now and I think this is all irrelevant because I really don't think we are going to beat *ichigan on Saturday but I am confident that if the Buckeyes finish 12-1 they will be ranked ahead of WSU. WSU's schedule is REALLY weak. The Buckeyes are a VERY shaky looking 10-1 but if they finish up with wins over #4 Michigan and #20 Northwestern there really wouldn't be a logical argument in favor of WSU other than that tOSU's loss was worse and the committee has consistently ignored that factor. Ohio State would have much better wins and it wouldn't be close.
-
The apparent weakness of the Pac this year would hurt Wazzu. The B1G is probably not as strong as expected, but still better than P12.
-
I think Wazzu is passing the “eye test” now more than Ohio St or Oklahoma. They are the most complete team anyway. They can score and play defense.
-
I think Wazzu is passing the “eye test” now more than Ohio St or Oklahoma. They are the most complete team anyway. They can score and play defense.
I don't disagree . . . now. I'll also add that this is extremely unlikely to be relevant to Ohio State. That said, IF Ohio State somehow manages to win back-to-back games against Michigan and Northwestern it is certain that, at that point, Ohio State will look better than Washington State.
I'll add the same thing wrt Oklahoma. IF they manage to beat WVU and (probably Texas but possible WVU again) in back-to-back games they will, at that point, look better than WSU.
IMHO, among the potential 1-loss P5 Champions (excluding Bama and Clemson on the assumption that they will be undefeated and Georgia on the assumption that Bama will beat them) the order is:
- Michigan
- Oklahoma (but possibly Ohio State if the Buckeyes won big while OU was winning ugly)
- Ohio State
- Washington State
-
I guess UGA at 12-1 would be a lock to make a 3 seed, or so. I don't expect that, but miracles happen.
-
I guess UGA at 12-1 would be a lock to make a 3 seed, or so. I don't expect that, but miracles happen.
That would be an absolute minimum The only possible teams to be seeded ahead of 12-1 Georgia would be:
- 13-0 Clemson
- 12-0 Notre Dame
I wouldn't even be sure of those. Remember that back in 2014 the committee seeded undefeated Florida State behind both 1-loss Alabama and 1-loss Oregon. A 12-1 SEC Champion Georgia coming off of a win over #1 Alabama might move up to #1.
-
I don't disagree . . . now. I'll also add that this is extremely unlikely to be relevant to Ohio State. That said, IF Ohio State somehow manages to win back-to-back games against Michigan and Northwestern it is certain that, at that point, Ohio State will look better than Washington State.
I'll add the same thing wrt Oklahoma. IF they manage to beat WVU and (probably Texas but possible WVU again) in back-to-back games they will, at that point, look better than WSU.
IMHO, among the potential 1-loss P5 Champions (excluding Bama and Clemson on the assumption that they will be undefeated and Georgia on the assumption that Bama will beat them) the order is:
- Michigan
- Oklahoma (but possibly Ohio State if the Buckeyes won big while OU was winning ugly)
- Ohio State
- Washington State
No, I agree with that. Oklahoma and Ohio St have a little more meat left on their schedule.
-
Georgia would be 11-2. WVU would be 10-2 because of the cancelled NCST game. I think the Conference Championship would prevail here but it would be a close call.
I have no real hope WVU will be in the playoff discussion but if that were to happen I’d hope the commitee would take a deeper look at the “extra data point” that UGA would have. WVU would actually have played more P5 opponents than UGA (11 to 10) despite UGA having the extra game. UGA’s extra data point would basically be UMass, Austin Peay, or Middle Tennessee St.
-
No, I agree with that. Oklahoma and Ohio St have a little more meat left on their schedule.
I'd apply the same thoughts to UCF. I think they are too high right now but I don't much care that they are ahead of Ohio State at this point. However, if by some miracle the Buckeyes manage to win the next two weekends then after that it would be patently ridiculous to rank UCF ahead of Ohio State. UCF's best win is over a 9-2 Cincinnati team. If they win out they will pick up wins over 7-4 (then 7-5) USF and either 9-3 (then 9-4) Houston or 8-4 (then 8-5) Memphis. Meanwhile Ohio State would pick up wins over 10-1 (then 10-2) Michigan and either 8-4 or 7-5 (then 8-5 or 7-6) Northwestern. UCF would have a grand total of zero wins over ranked teams while Ohio State would have:
- A win over current #4 Michigan which would drop to about #10 at 10-2.
- A win over current #12 Penn State which will finish ranked about #10 9-3 or about #17 at 8-4
- A win over current #19 Northwestern which would finish ranked about #24 at 8-5 or unranked at 7-6.
Same goes for Oklahoma. If the Sooners win out they'll have multiple wins over ranked teams and be 12-1 while UCF can do no better than 13-0 with MAYBE one win over a ranked team (if Cincy gets back in).
-
I have no real hope WVU will be in the playoff discussion but if that were to happen I’d hope the commitee would take a deeper look at the “extra data point” that UGA would have. WVU would actually have played more P5 opponents than UGA (11 to 10) despite UGA having the extra game. UGA’s extra data point would basically be UMass, Austin Peay, or Middle Tennessee St.
Yeah, I don't have much hope they'd actually consider it this way, but it would be nice if they did.
-
UGA has a weak slate this year. Their ONLY shot is somehow 12-1 and beating Bama. Maybe there is some weird situation where they could lose to Tech, but I doubt it.
-
I'm not so sure. If we assume that UGA loses to GaTech then beats Bama they would finish 11-2 and SEC Champions. I have no idea how the committee value that. In their favor they would have a HUMONGOUS win over Bama in the SECCG but to their detriment they would be a 2-loss P5 Champion. I think it is a VERY safe assumption that an 11-2 SEC Champion that just beat Bama would get in ahead of any other 2-loss teams. Assuming ND and Clemson win out, they would obviously be in. The third and fourth spots would be between UGA, 12-1 Bama (assuming they beat Auburn) and any 1-loss teams from the group of tOSU/M/OU/WSU.
I can't imagine the committee putting in Bama over UGA in the situation. As bad a GaTech is, they would be better than any of Bama's OOC opponents and UGA would obviously own the H2H and SEC-Championship "tiebreakers".
Georgia would obviously get in if Northwestern wins the B1G while OU and WSU do not win their leagues.
Sure, it would be strange if the committee picked a 12-1 Bama over an 11-2 Ga just after Ga beat Bama in the SEC CCG.
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
Now I know the 2 situations are not exactly the same, but there is a precedent there for a 1-loss non champion to be picked over the 2-loss champion even though the 2 loss champion beat the non champion H2H.
-
IMHO an 11-1 Notre Dame would finish behind all undefeated and 1-loss P5 Champions.
Multiple sites are now thinking that 11-1 ND would stay ahead of 12-1 OSU because of our piss poor offense and inconstant run game.
-
It's an interesting question whether a team that looked truly dominant all year (outside a first half against CItadel!!!!) would finish 12-1 and be left out.
I think most would agree that an Alabama that had a flukey loss to UGA would probably still be the best team in the country.
But, they just lost in what in effect is a quarterfinal. Do they get a do over? I'd say not, but who knows?
-
well, I'll just root for a 28 point win by the Dawgs over Bammer
nothing flukey about it
-
I will as well obviously, but realistically, I think the Dawgs' chances here would require a 3-0 turnover break AND a special teams play for UGA.
They have looked a bit better since that LSU fiasco, but the OL is in bad shape on the injury front.
-
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
Would it be fair to make a differentiation between a "bad loss" and an "embarrassing loss"?
A bad loss is losing to .500 team or or worse; ie. a team that should have no business beating a National Title Contending team. The committee doesn't seem to penalize that much for bad losses.
An Embarrassing Loss is getting blown out by 4 scores or more. ie. looking really bad while losing a game. I think the committee has knocked teams hard enough to keep Embarrassing teams out of the playoff.
Penn State in 2016 had an embarrassing loss to M*ch*g*n 49-10, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Ohio State in 2017 had an embarrassing loss to Iowa 55-24, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Both times to a "better looking" non champ.
-
The simplest explanation is that a one loss nonchamp is preferred over a two loss champ.
And yes, I recall Auburn.
-
But I still think it was strange that in 2016 that 11-1 OSU was picked over the Big Ten champion 11-2 PSU, a team that also had beat OSU H2H.
I hope you don't think I'm being homerish here because I a consistent advocate for "body of work" over H2H. Another issue that comes into play here is HFA which I consistently assert is a bigger factor than most people give it credit for.
Both of those come into play in the 2016 situation. First, Penn State's entire body of work was indisputably weaker than Ohio State's. The Nittany Lions had more losses (two vs one), worse losses (both were worse, Pitt because of the opponent and Michigan because of the score), and less quality wins. Second, the H2H was a close game on PSU's home field.
Finally, I hope that the CFP committee values SoS. I certainly think that they should. In 2016 that was another factor in Ohio State's favor. The Buckeyes owned a road win over the B12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners and had tougher B1G-W cross-overs than PSU.
I like the way the CFP committee has generally treated H2H because it is what I do when I do my Power Ranking votes. I use it as a tiebreaker of sorts for teams that are close overall. However, it is not the end-all-be-all. It can't be because then you inevitably run into the A<B<C<A conundrum. For example, in 2016, Penn State beat Ohio State, Ohio State beat Michigan, Michigan beat Penn State.
If Penn State had beaten the Panthers or been reasonably competitive with the Wolverines then they probably would have gotten in ahead of the Buckeyes. If they had done both then it wouldn't have even been a discussion. They didn't and consequently their entire body of work was not close enough to Ohio State's to bring the H2H "tiebreaker" into play.
The situation at hand might be similar to the 2016 tOSU/PSU situation. Assume:
- Bama beats Auburn, and
- GaTech beats Georgia, and
- Georgia beats Bama in the SECCG.
Georgia would be SEC Champions but have two losses:
- By 20 points at LSU, and
- To a mediocre (at best) GaTech team
Bama would not be a Champion but they would have a decent case based on manhandling their schedule. The weakness in Bama's argument is that their SoS wasn't very good. Their OOC turned out to be complete trash and their two SEC-E opponents (TN and Mizzou) were two of the worst three teams in the SEC-E. Their best two wins would be LSU and aTm. If aTm wins this weekend then Bama would have two wins over ranked teams but those teams would be ranked ~12-17. If LSU wins then Bama would likely finish the season with only one win over a ranked team. To their credit, their loss to Georgia would be a really "good" loss.
-
Would it be fair to make a differentiation between a "bad loss" and an "embarrassing loss"?
A bad loss is losing to .500 team or or worse; ie. a team that should have no business beating a National Title Contending team. The committee doesn't seem to penalize that much for bad losses.
An Embarrassing Loss is getting blown out by 4 scores or more. ie. looking really bad while losing a game. I think the committee has knocked teams hard enough to keep Embarrassing teams out of the playoff.
Penn State in 2016 had an embarrassing loss to M*ch*g*n 49-10, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Ohio State in 2017 had an embarrassing loss to Iowa 55-24, and they were kept out of the playoff.
Both times to a "better looking" non champ.
It is impossible to tell because in both of those situations the team that got left out had BOTH:
- An embarrassing loss (PSU to Michigan, tOSU to Iowa), AND
- Two losses
We can't really tell which of those two things was more important.
-
Multiple sites are now thinking that 11-1 ND would stay ahead of 12-1 OSU because of our piss poor offense and inconstant run game.
I think this is one of those things that is easy to speculate now but highly unlikely to actually occur. In order for this discussion to even come into play the following three things have to happen:
- Ohio State has to beat #4 Michigan on Saturday afternoon, then
- Notre Dame has to lose to unranked USC on Saturday night, then
- Ohio State has to beat #19 Northwestern next Saturday night (while ND is home watching)
I'm not disagreeing with the idea that Ohio State hasn't looked very good this year but if they win back-to-back games against ranked teams while Notre Dame is losing to an unranked team I think that would create a LOT of movement.
Ultimately, if Notre Dame loses in SoCal Saturday night then I think they need to become the world's biggest Northwestern/West Virginia/Washington/Utah fans.
-
We can't really tell which of those two things was more important.
Bad Loss vs. Embarrassing Loss
We can if we expand the field of teams we look at past 4 vs. 5. The general feel I think most poster agree to is that a team with a bad loss doesn't get knocked that much. But, teams who have an embarrassing loss on their schedule haven't made the playoff.
-
Bad Loss vs. Embarrassing Loss
We can if we expand the field of teams we look at past 4 vs. 5.
Eh, the problem with this is that everybody knows that the only meaningful distinction in any CFP ranking is the distinction between top-4 team and not top-4 team in the final rankings each year.
-
Making an NY6 bolw game is a meaningful distinction.
It's a least a nice parting gift.
-
There are two really big games tonight:
Oklahoma/West Virginia:
If the Sooners win they keep the B12 in the CFP hunt. The victorious Sooners would be 11-1 and headed to the B12CG with a strong likelihood that they would get an opportunity to avenge their only loss of the season by playing Texas again.
If the Mountaineers win the B12's CFP hopes would be on life support. The victorious Mountaineers would be 9-2 and headed to the B12CG to play either 9-3 Texas or 10-2 Oklahoma. The only B12 team with a shot at the CFP would be the B12CG winner but that would be either:
- 11-2 Oklahoma, or
- 10-2 West Virignia, or
- 10-3 Texas
Washington/Washington State:
If the Cougars win they keep the P12 in the CFP hunt. The victorious Cougars would be 11-1 and headed to the P12CG to play Utah. Utah will be either 9-3 or 8-4 heading into the P12CG.
If the Huskies win the P12's CFP hopes are over. The 9-3 Huskies would, at best, play the 9-3 Utes in the P12CG. Washington State would finish the season 10-2 but with no CG, a ridiculously weak OOC, a bad overall SoS, and probably only one win over a ranked team they wouldn't have a serious chance.
-
In terms of national impact, the biggest game of the weekend is ND/USC on Saturday night. The Irish are clearly in with a win and most likely out with a loss so that game impacts the Irish and all of the teams that could potentially end up 4th if the Irish lose.
Georgia/GeorgiaTech has some national impact but it is conditional because the game probably is only really relevant IF Georgia beats Bama next weekend. Even then I'm not sure how relevant it is because an 11-2 SEC Champion Georgia that just took out Bama is probably going to find a way into the CFP anyway.
The Bama/Auburn and Clemson/USCe games are less nationally relevant because Bama and Clemson could probably afford rivalry losses as long as they win their respective CG's next weekend.
Michigan/Ohio State is less nationally relevant because either way the winner will be 11-1 and heading to Indianapolis to play Northwestern while the loser will be 10-2 and not a Champion. Michigan has a somewhat stronger resume but either way the winner is a CFP contender if they beat Northwestern while the loser is out and the winner has no shot without beating Northwestern.
-
So the Pac22 is out but the B12 is still in the race.
-
so, there will be folks rooting for the Horns
-
so, there will be folks rooting for the Horns
Yes, but first the Trojans. If this early USC lead holds up it opens up a spot such that the OU/UT and tOSU/ NU are less relevant to each other.
-
So, it gets fairly simple, though a lot of STUFF could happen.
Bama - UGA - winner is in, loser might be in depending if it's Bama
ND - IN
Clemson - I'll call them IN barring some weird meltdown with Pitt. Clemson can score points and plays some defense.
Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama - IF all finish 12-1, no right answer I think here.
UCF - I can't get over the schedule.
Of course, we'd have MAYHEM if NW downs OSU and Texas does the same and UGA edges Bama. I'd guess Bama would get the nod, rightly or wrongly.
-
UCF - I can't get over the schedule.
Of course, we'd have MAYHEM if NW downs OSU and Texas does the same and UGA edges Bama. I'd guess Bama would get the nod, rightly or wrongly.
I'd like to see chaos. Rooting for Texas, Northwestern, Georgia, and even Pitt
Put UCF in w/o the star QB
-
Pulling I guess for Bama, Pitt, Utah and Ohio St.
I can't pull for Tom Herman anymore, but don't particularly want the Sooners to win either. So put me down for a meteorite in the XII.
For the G5 Ccgs, gimme Application St, the Blazers, Memphis, Boise, and... oh I dunno... Buffalo?
-
I saw Bama started as "only" a 10 point favorite. I thought it might be 14.
-
I’m rooting for UGA, because I don’t think OSU is getting in unless OU loses, and while certainly not impossible ,but I think OU gets revenge. So I think it’d be the end of playoff as we know it when the SEC gets 2 in and 2 power 5 schools at 12-1 are left out
-
I saw Bama started as "only" a 10 point favorite. I thought it might be 14.
so, you're taking Bama?
-
I think it would take a near perfect game by the Dawgs plus a couple of breaks to beat Bama this year. Last year I though the teams were close to equal, sans Tu'a, this year not.
I'd guess a score of something like Bama 27 UGA 16.
The Dawgs have been looking better after the LSU debacle. They certainly over powered Tech and that quirky offense. Tech had nothing on offense. But Bama is not Tech, duh.
I don't like playing Tech. They were about as good as they can be this season and there is no credit to be had in beating them and you can easily get players hurt from those roll blocks.
Next year is probably UGA's "year" to make some waves. They have a very young team.
-
Of course, we'd have MAYHEM if NW downs OSU and Texas does the same and UGA edges Bama. I'd guess Bama would get the nod, rightly or wrongly.
I actually think that situation is cleaner than if Alabama beats Georgia. In yours I think Alabama is pretty obviously in. It would be them vs. a bunch of 2 loss non champs.
If Ohio State, Oklahoma and Georgia all lose, I think it gets crazier. Does Michigan sneak back in? Georgia might stay #4 if it's a close loss to Bama.
-
I personally would prefer that CGs are "play in" games. If you lost, you are out. I realize in weird years that may not be practicable, and this may be one of them.
-
I personally would prefer that CGs are "play in" games. If you lost, you are out. I realize in weird years that may not be practicable, and this may be one of them.
Notre Dame is in, and whoever wins the SEC deserves it. So even that still requires upsets in 2 of the 3 out of the ACC, Big Ten and Big XII to get an undeserving conference champ in the mix. Even at that, unless the 2 upsets are Northwestern and Pitt, I'd have a hard time getting too lathered up about Texas getting in.
-
Yeah, very true, it's that fourth slot, AGAIN, that could get dicey obviously.
Teams that are in now (or almost), not in order:
1. ND
2. SEC champion
3. Clemson, I can't see any way they lose to Pitt, so I count this chicken.
4. Ah, this is going to be a controversy, again.
-
Ohio State has a shot if Alabama beats Georgia. As much as it pains me to say it, Saturday's Ohio State is better than Oklahoma or anyone else ranked 10 through 5.
-
Oklahoma has a better loss than OSU, and if they beat Texas, a better win in the CG as well. OSU has a better win overall.
I think it would be OU. Or Bama.
-
It really is only that fourth slot that will be a controversy. All discussion can be about that alone (unless you want to include the possibility of a Clemson loss).
The ACC is obviously weak this year aside from the top dog. The B1G W champ is at least a credible opponent.
-
with or without upsets, I predict an outrage and clamoring for expansion to 6 or 8
-
Yep, let's just keep on letting more and more teams in. Let mediocrity in. Let's get that first 3-loss national champ ASAP!
-
Warning: Playoff Expansion Proponents:
Let's say UGA upsets Bama, and they both get in. The horror! Nay! Outrage!
Playoff expanded. Partially because a non-champ is getting in over conf champs, partially because the SEC keeps hoarding playoff spots.
It expands to 8.
But as often as the SEC got 2 of the 4 playoff teams, it's then getting 3 of the 8. One year (disaster!), the SEC gets 4 of the 8. Multiple national playoff final games are all-SEC teams. The horror! Nay! Outrage!
Warning: expanding the playoff may lead to even more SEC successes. Sorry.
-
I still think that they should withhold the final playoff rankings until the day after the Army-Navy game.
Really build up the suspense.
-
If somehow UGA upsets Bama and they both get in .... holy cow.
We will hear lamentations of their women, gnashing of teeth, vows to boycott ESPiN, and never watch any SEC team play ever again.
SEC fans will be drinking from the skulls of their enemies. That's a metaphor.
-
I actually think that situation is cleaner than if Alabama beats Georgia. In yours I think Alabama is pretty obviously in. It would be them vs. a bunch of 2 loss non champs.
If Ohio State, Oklahoma and Georgia all lose, I think it gets crazier. Does Michigan sneak back in? Georgia might stay #4 if it's a close loss to Bama.
I thought about the possibility of Michigan sneaking back in but, IMHO, there is zero chance of that for several reasons:
- I think that 10-2 Michigan would be ranked behind even an 11-2 non-Champion Georgia. Georgia would have a 1/2 game better record and their losses (#1 Bama and #~10 LSU) would be AT LEAST comparable to Michigan's losses (#~3 ND and #~5 tOSU). Each team's best win would be approximately equal. Michigan had a blowout win over #12 PSU while UGA had a slightly lesser blowout win over #9 UF.
- I really don't think that 10-2 Michigan would be ranked ahead of an 11-2 Ohio State that beat them H2H for at least three reasons: First, Ohio State would have a 1/2 game better record. Second, Ohio State's second loss would come in a CG that Michigan didn't have to play and it has seemed to me that the committee has not wanted to severely penalize teams for losing CG's. Finally, even though Ohio State's losses would CLEARLY be worse than Michigan's, Ohio State would also have a much better win.
- Michigan can't realistically pass Bama, Clemson, or Notre Dame because the worst any of those three could do is 12-1 and Michigan is stuck at 10-2. I think that you can add Georgia (see #1 above), Ohio State (see #2 above), and possibly Oklahoma to the list of teams that Michigan can't realistically pass and just assume that Michigan's ceiling in the final CFP rankings is no better than #6.
IMHO, there are only six teams left in contention for the four CFP spots and they are the current top-6. Current CFP rankings:
- 12-0 Bama will finish 13-0 or 12-1 and might already be a CFP lock. I think the only thing that would keep them out would be if they just got destroyed by Georgia while OU and tOSU were destroying Texas and Northwestern and Clemson also won. Even then I'm not sure.
- 12-0 Clemson will finish 13-0 or 12-1. Their major problem, should they lose, is that their SoS isn't all that good and their loss would be BAD. Their loss would be bad enough that it would be comparable to Ohio State's loss to Purdue and Clemson would NOT be a Conference Champion.
- 12-0 Notre Dame, season complete. The Irish are absolute 100% locks, the only question is seeding.
- 11-1 Georgia will finish 12-1 or 11-2. At 12-1 they would CLEARLY be in. At 11-2 they would need help, a lot of help. It could happen but probably only if the loss was at least competitive and the Buckeyes and Sooners both lost.
- 11-1 Oklahoma will finish 12-1 or 11-2. At 11-2 they have no chance. At 12-1 they should be ok, but it would help them a LOT to win BIG over Texas and for Ohio State to either lose or at least win ugly.
- 11-1 Ohio State will finish 12-1 or 11-2. The Buckeyes probably need either a Texas win or a MAJOR blowout of Northwestern coupled with Oklahoma beating Texas but looking bad doing it. It would also help if Bama either beats Georgia or gets run out of the Georgia Dome.
- 10-2 Michigan is done at 10-2. It is unlikely that they could pass even one of the teams ranked ahead of them.
- 11-0 UCF can finish 12-0 but they still will not have any quality wins and their SoS is something around 197.
- 9-3 Florida is done at 9-3. They'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.
- 9-3 LSU is done at 9-3. Like Florida, they'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.
- 9-3 Washington will finish 10-3 or 9-4. They might pass LSU, Florida, and UCF if they win but I think that is their ceiling, #8.
- 9-3 Penn State is done at 9-3. In theory they could pass Washington if the Huskies lose but in practice I don't think it matters because if Washington loses it means that #17 Utah wins and the Utes would probably trade places with the Huskies so PSU is probably stuck behind the winner either way. Like Florida and LSU they'll pass UCF if Memphis wins.
- 10-2 Washington State is done at 10-2. See PSU but worse because they might not pass the Huskies even if Utah does win due to H2H.
- 9-3 Texas will finish 10-3 or 9-4. If they win they'll probably move to the front of the 3-loss line which would put them at #9 and my guess is that the committee would move Oklahoma behind them due to the 2xH2H so that gets them to #8. Additionally, they might pass either UCF or tOSU or both if either or both of those teams lose and possibly Michigan as well so in theory they might finish #5 but I can't see anything higher than that.
-
I was thinking that putting Michigan ahead of UCF seemed like a good fail safe. Now if somehow Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all lose, maybe lose ugly, the committee still has a buffer to keep UCF out. But if they decide UCF now gets its shot, they can still jump Michigan with the argument that they are now conference champs, which is enough to slide them past. If they had dropped UM below UCF, there is no way they could jump Michigan back with a UCF win.
That's why I'm also a little surprised about Oklahoma ahead of OSU. Oklahoma plays a better opponent, you can put Ohio State ahead for now, and still reevaluate if both win this weekend. I think by putting Oklahoma ahead, they've closed the discussion. I don't think blowing out a 5 loss Northwestern team, even if Oklahoma wins close, does much for me.
-
I was thinking that putting Michigan ahead of UCF seemed like a good fail safe. Now if somehow Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all lose, maybe lose ugly, the committee still has a buffer to keep UCF out. But if they decide UCF now gets its shot, they can still jump Michigan with the argument that they are now conference champs, which is enough to slide them past. If they had dropped UM below UCF, there is no way they could jump Michigan back with a UCF win.
That's why I'm also a little surprised about Oklahoma ahead of OSU. Oklahoma plays a better opponent, you can put Ohio State ahead for now, and still reevaluate if both win this weekend. I think by putting Oklahoma ahead, they've closed the discussion. I don't think blowing out a 5 loss Northwestern team, even if Oklahoma wins close, does much for me.
now now, I just heard yesterday the committee chairman doesn't consider what might happen in the next week when deciding on where to rank teams. ;)
-
now now, I just heard yesterday the committee chairman doesn't consider what might happen in the next week when deciding on where to rank teams. ;)
I think we learned that last year. If you remember, last year when they released the second-to-last rankings they stated that 5 (Bama) through 8 (Ohio State) were all very close. Then NOTHING unexpected happened in the CG's and yet they didn't move Ohio State ahead of Alabama. Last year's second-to-last rankings and what happened:
- Clemson, beat #7 Miami, stayed #1
- Auburn, lost to #6 Georgia, dropped to #7
- Oklahoma, beat #11 TCU, rose to #2
- Wisconsin, lost to #8 Ohio State, dropped to #6
- Alabama, did not play
- Georgia, beat #2 Auburn, rose to #3
- Miami, lost to #1 Clemson, dropped to #10
- Ohio State, beat #4 Wisconsin, moved to #5
It really doesn't bother me that my team didn't pass Bama. My complaint is with the committee's comment. In retrospect it OBVIOUSLY was not true. If #8 Ohio State had truly been "very close" to #5 Bama then beating #4 Wisconsin while Bama sat home watching would have been enough to move the Buckeyes ahead of the Tide. It wasn't.
-
I was thinking that putting Michigan ahead of UCF seemed like a good fail safe. Now if somehow Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma all lose, maybe lose ugly, the committee still has a buffer to keep UCF out. But if they decide UCF now gets its shot, they can still jump Michigan with the argument that they are now conference champs, which is enough to slide them past. If they had dropped UM below UCF, there is no way they could jump Michigan back with a UCF win.
You might be right but I'm not sure that Michigan is the team they would put in if that happened. Even with ugly losses for UGA, OU, and tOSU I still think that at least the Bulldogs would stay ahead of the Wolverines.
-
That's why I'm also a little surprised about Oklahoma ahead of OSU. Oklahoma plays a better opponent, you can put Ohio State ahead for now, and still reevaluate if both win this weekend. I think by putting Oklahoma ahead, they've closed the discussion. I don't think blowing out a 5 loss Northwestern team, even if Oklahoma wins close, does much for me.
It is definitely a troubling indicator for the Buckeyes. I think that the Buckeyes probably need a Texas win and if not they are probably going to need an ugly OU win and something on the order of the 2014 B1GCG 59-0 win to make up that gap.
-
I still am unsure as to whether "the four best teams" means just that, or "the four best teams FOR THE PLAYOFF" means something different.
If it's the former, there need be nothing else said about winning conferences etc., it is the four best teams, end of discussion.
The addendum suggests some other considerations are significant, or could be.
-
If you don't care about on field results then you might as well take the top four accumulated recruiting classes over the last five years and be done with it.
Thank God that that's not their approach.
-
I'd be fine with UCF making if the 3 candidates all lose and UCF wins.
Michigan should be out of the game entirely. If UGA loses a close game and OU and OSU lose, maybe.
-
UCF can win a NC without even participating in the playoffs, like last year.
-
They probably won't win by being included.
-
I think we learned that last year. If you remember, last year when they released the second-to-last rankings they stated that 5 (Bama) through 8 (Ohio State) were all very close. Then NOTHING unexpected happened in the CG's and yet they didn't move Ohio State ahead of Alabama. Last year's second-to-last rankings and what happened:
- Clemson, beat #7 Miami, stayed #1
- Auburn, lost to #6 Georgia, dropped to #7
- Oklahoma, beat #11 TCU, rose to #2
- Wisconsin, lost to #8 Ohio State, dropped to #6
- Alabama, did not play
- Georgia, beat #2 Auburn, rose to #3
- Miami, lost to #1 Clemson, dropped to #10
- Ohio State, beat #4 Wisconsin, moved to #5
It really doesn't bother me that my team didn't pass Bama. My complaint is with the committee's comment. In retrospect it OBVIOUSLY was not true. If #8 Ohio State had truly been "very close" to #5 Bama then beating #4 Wisconsin while Bama sat home watching would have been enough to move the Buckeyes ahead of the Tide. It wasn't.
Hence my wink emoji. I just wish they would be upfront about things because it becomes very obvious that they are bending the truth if not outright lying when they talk about the process week in and week out.
-
They probably won't win by being included.
they would like to find out
3 teams that are included probably won't win either
but, upsets happen
-
So for Michigan fans, say Texas wins, then Alabama wins. Do you root for Northwestern, to open up a shot at the playoff, but knowing if (as medina thinks) they still won't take you, and you've lost the Rose; or do you root for OSU and lock in the Rose?
-
root for OSU and hope for the Rose
not going to jump the Bucks - head to head