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Topic: Playoff picture heading into CCG's

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CWSooner

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2017, 04:20:26 PM »
Quote
OU's offense is fantastic, their defense and special teams are atrocious.
The defense is bad.  Special teams are nothing special overall, but better than average.  Very solid place-kicking, 90% of KOs through the end zone, punt average yardage in the low 40s, none blocked.  OTOH, not much in the return game and no blocks of opposition punts or kicks.
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CWSooner

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2017, 04:30:41 PM »
IMHO most of it is pretty simple:
  • The ACCCG winner (either 11-1 Miami or 12-1 Clemson) is in.  
  • The SECCG winner (either 12-1 UGA or 11-2 Auburn) is in.  
  • Oklahoma is in if they beat TCU in the B12CG to finish 11-1.  
  • Wisconsin is in if they beat tOSU in the B1GCG to finish 13-0.  

The ACC and SEC Championship games are essentially play-in games but they are largely irrelevant to other teams because, IMHO, the winners are in and the losers are out.  

If either Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose, that will open up a spot or two.  IMHO, Bama is the next team in so if either tOSU or TCU win, the Tide are in the playoffs.  

The only real question is what happens if both tOSU and TCU win this weekend?  At that point, the contenders for the last playoff spot would be:
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State
  • 11-2 B12 Champion TCU
  • 11-2 P12 Champion USC (assuming they beat Stanford in the P12CG).  
  • 12-1 non-Champion Wisconsin
IMHO, the above is the order in which those teams would be ranked behind the top-3 but it might depend on the relative strength of tOSU's, TCU's, and USC's CCG wins.  Ie, if one of them pulls a 2014 Ohio State and wins their CCG 59-0 that would potentially vault them ahead of the others.  
I saw an article earlier today on either the CBS or CFN site that makes a point I hadn't really thought about--tOSU is limited by how high Oklahoma is in the rankings.  The Committee is going to be leery about ranking a 2-loss Ohio State over a 2-loss Oklahoma, due to the H2H.

In this analysis, a 2-loss B1G champ Ohio State has a better chance of getting in competing with Bama for the 4th spot rather than through having OU lose to TCU and open up two spots.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2017, 04:32:19 PM »
if osu beats sconnie, then there will be a healthy debate and i can see it going either way. both helmets. osu has more losses, but is a p5 champ, osu has better wins, but worse losses (both score and teams). no idea really how this plays out though.
This^^^^^^^ the mayhem is great with or w/o tOSU in the CFP
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ELA

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2017, 05:35:53 PM »
Curious as to whether we'd have more or less intrigue under the BCS system?

First of all, Wisconsin would absolutely be #1 in the polls right now, but let's assume aside from that, it's all the same.

Wisconsin would be the only team that controlled it's own destiny.  After that who knows?  You'd have a pretty legit shot of leaving two 1 loss BCS champs out among Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia.  I think Auburn would be done, even with a win, with 2 losses.  Even if Clemson and Oklahoma both lost, I think Miami would get in over them just to avoid putting a 2 loss team in.

LSU got in in 2007, but there were no 1 loss conference champs as options.  The only other 1 loss team was a Kansas team that didn't even play for a Big XII title.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2017, 08:12:17 PM »
I saw an article earlier today on either the CBS or CFN site that makes a point I hadn't really thought about--tOSU is limited by how high Oklahoma is in the rankings.  The Committee is going to be leery about ranking a 2-loss Ohio State over a 2-loss Oklahoma, due to the H2H.

In this analysis, a 2-loss B1G champ Ohio State has a better chance of getting in competing with Bama for the 4th spot rather than through having OU lose to TCU and open up two spots.
If that is correct then I believe that Ohio State has no shot at the CFP because I think that 11-1 Bama will get in ahead of a potential 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State.  
I'm not sure what the committee would do with the comparison of:
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State (with H2H home loss to OU), and
  • 11-2 non-Champion Oklahoma (with H2H road win over tOSU).  

Last year isn't the same because last year Ohio State finished 11-1.  

CWSooner

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2017, 12:00:19 AM »
If that is correct then I believe that Ohio State has no shot at the CFP because I think that 11-1 Bama will get in ahead of a potential 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State.  
I'm not sure what the committee would do with the comparison of:
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State (with H2H home loss to OU), and
  • 11-2 non-Champion Oklahoma (with H2H road win over tOSU).  

Last year isn't the same because last year Ohio State finished 11-1.
That situation would certainly present a conundrum to the Committee.  Conference champ and H2H cancel each other out.

Having a dog in the fight, in this situation, I'd probably say eliminate the team with the worse loss.

If I didn't have a dog in the fight, I'd say to go with the conference champion.

I am coming to the belief that winning your conference should be the play-in to the playoff, and that the Committee should just exist for the purpose of choosing between #4 and #5 of the P5 conference champs.

And no expansion to eight teams.
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Kris61

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2017, 06:30:44 AM »
I don't think Ohio St is in a great place right now.  Even with a win they will either be compared to an Alabama team with one less loss or an Oklahoma team with the same record who beat them in Columbus. They could be compared to both.  And while most of the time Ohio St gets the benefit of the doubt with the "eye test" I don't think they would when compared to Bama and may not against Oklahoma either.

The loss to Iowa is a cloud, too.  I heard some talking head on the radio yesterday ask if you could imagine a scenario where Bama would go into Kinnick and have a double nickel hung on them.  It may not be an entirely fair question but the answer is no for me.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2017, 06:52:35 AM »
I don't think Ohio St is in a great place right now.  Even with a win they will either be compared to an Alabama team with one less loss or an Oklahoma team with the same record who beat them in Columbus. They could be compared to both.  And while most of the time Ohio St gets the benefit of the doubt with the "eye test" I don't think they would when compared to Bama and may not against Oklahoma either.

The loss to Iowa is a cloud, too.  I heard some talking head on the radio yesterday ask if you could imagine a scenario where Bama would go into Kinnick and have a double nickel hung on them.  It may not be an entirely fair question but the answer is no for me.
Agree totally. Also, I don't think it will matter as I think Wisconin is going to kick their ass.
Wisconsin has been undervalued all season.   Fans often confuse " weak schedule" with not very good.  
Look at the granular stats  on Wisconin...they are first or second in an incredible number of measures.  Their defense is sick, and their offense is a machine, plus the are more than respectable on Special Teams.
When they get to the playoffs, I think they will surprise some folks. 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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TresselownsUM

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2017, 10:35:54 AM »
Look at the granular stats  on Wisconin...they are first or second in an incredible number of measures.  Their defense is sick, and their offense is a machine, plus the are more than respectable on Special Teams.

Stats can be misleading. The way Wisconsin runs their offense it was almost always inflate their defensive numbers. They pound the rock, control tempo and clock which means their defense will be on the field less. Fewer plays on the field, better defensive stats. A team like Oregon that's going to try to run it's offense fast, run 85  plays and thus subject it's defense to being on the field an extra 20-30 plays is going to have worse defensive metrics. that doesn't mean Wisconsins D isn't better than a spread team, it may very well be, I just think you have to consider some other variables.

with that being said, I do think this Wisconsin defense is pretty good. they haven't played a team that can really fling it, so that'd be interesting to see how theyd fair against that, but they don't have to worry about that this weekend at least. I think the Wisconsin D will hold up pretty well this coming weekend.

now the offense I don't agree. yes, I think the badgers run ball very effectively, but they are one dimensional. hornibrook is a liability. 63% completions is not bad, but 21 TDs to 13 Picks is not a good ratio. and he just lacks the arm strength to take the top off of a defense. If this badger team ever got down by 14-21 points that's how they could get an ugly number hung on them. I don't think that happens this weekend however, the OSU defensive line has been good but not great and the LB's have been horrible.

I don't think Clemson or Auburn would be good matchups for wiscy though, I think they would struggle to get to 17 points on either of those 2 squads. OU would be a good matchup though, they could definitely run the ball on them.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2017, 10:57:56 AM »
Look at the granular stats  on Wisconin...they are first or second in an incredible number of measures.  Their defense is sick, and their offense is a machine, plus the are more than respectable on Special Teams.

Stats can be misleading. The way Wisconsin runs their offense it was almost always inflate their defensive numbers. They pound the rock, control tempo and clock which means their defense will be on the field less. Fewer plays on the field, better defensive stats. A team like Oregon that's going to try to run it's offense fast, run 85  plays and thus subject it's defense to being on the field an extra 20-30 plays is going to have worse defensive metrics. that doesn't mean Wisconsins D isn't better than a spread team, it may very well be, I just think you have to consider some other variables.

with that being said, I do think this Wisconsin defense is pretty good. they haven't played a team that can really fling it, so that'd be interesting to see how theyd fair against that, but they don't have to worry about that this weekend at least. I think the Wisconsin D will hold up pretty well this coming weekend.

now the offense I don't agree. yes, I think the badgers run ball very effectively, but they are one dimensional. hornibrook is a liability. 63% completions is not bad, but 21 TDs to 13 Picks is not a good ratio. and he just lacks the arm strength to take the top off of a defense. If this badger team ever got down by 14-21 points that's how they could get an ugly number hung on them. I don't think that happens this weekend however, the OSU defensive line has been good but not great and the LB's have been horrible.

I don't think Clemson or Auburn would be good matchups for wiscy though, I think they would struggle to get to 17 points on either of those 2 squads. OU would be a good matchup though, they could definitely run the ball on them.
I get the offense on the field for a long time thing- and it is true.  Still- if you look at things like Yards per carry, red zone defense, third down efficiency- I think your undervaluing the Badger defense.  Just my 2 cents.
Also- you seem pretty sure that Ohio State wont sling it around?  Evidence might say otherwise.
Barrett is the highest rated QB in the conference by 10 points over the next guy, he leads the conference in completion %, is fourth in passing yards (but close to those in front of him), has by far the most TD passes, and by far the best TD pass/Interception ratio.
In fact- now that the regular season is over- if someone asked you to look at a season worth of results, and pick the team to try to pass on the badgers- it would be Barrett and OSU.
And don't forget, Dobbins is first in YPC, and Weber is 3rd (Taylor is second).  So its not like you can just defend the pass when you play OSU.
I think the badgers would give any team in the top 5 an helluva game.  That's the whole point- they do not allow teams to race off to a big lead on them.
I strongly suspect they will get a chance to prove that.
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ELA

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2017, 11:05:05 AM »
S&P+ which adjusts for pace of play and what not, looking at efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives, has Wisconsin's defense #1.

Lot of Big Ten at the top on that side of the ball based on that metric...

1. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
10. Michigan
12. Ohio State
13. Penn State
16. Iowa
24. Northwestern
28. Purdue

LittlePig

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2017, 11:52:12 AM »
S&P+ which adjusts for pace of play and what not, looking at efficiency, explosiveness, field position and finishing drives, has Wisconsin's defense #1.

Lot of Big Ten at the top on that side of the ball based on that metric...

1. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
10. Michigan
12. Ohio State
13. Penn State
16. Iowa
24. Northwestern
28. Purdue
Interesting that the top 8 teams in defense match the top 8 teams in power rankings.

So maybe a better question is how did JT Barret do against the top 8 defenses?  That may be a better predictor how he does against wiscinsin.  

And maybe Barrett's numbers are so much better than anybody else because he has not faced Wisconsin yet.

MaximumSam

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2017, 12:05:06 PM »
Interesting that the top 8 teams in defense match the top 8 teams in power rankings.

So maybe a better question is how did JT Barret do against the top 8 defenses?  That may be a better predictor how he does against wiscinsin.  

And maybe Barrett's numbers are so much better than anybody else because he has not faced Wisconsin yet.
Barrett:
Against MSU: 55 yards rushing, 183 passing
Michigan: 67 yards rushing, 30 passing (left game early)
PSU: 95 rushing, 328 passing
Iowa: 63 rushing, 208 passing

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff picture heading into CCG's
« Reply #27 on: November 28, 2017, 12:10:19 PM »
I said in the OP that I thought Bama would get in if either TCU or tOSU wins this weekend.  The best historical comparison in 2016 Ohio State but others have pointed out that 2016 Ohio State had better wins.  In 2016 (rankings from 2016 final CFP poll):
  • #5 Penn State, lost on the road by a FG
  • #6 Michigan, won at home in 2OT
  • #7 B12 Champion Oklahoma, won on the road by 21
  • #8 Wisconsin, won on the road in OT
Alabama this year has:
  • #6 Auburn, lost on the road by 12 (note, Auburn will move up based on the win)
  • #14 MissSt, won on the road by 7 (note, MissSt will move down based on losing to Ole Miss)
  • #18 LSU, won at home by 14

In my opinion all of the following are completely out of the picture:
  • All non-P5 teams
  • All P5 non-Champions with two or more losses
  • the Pac12:  Because Stanford has three losses including SDSU and USC's best win would be Stanford twice
  • Wisconsin if they lose the B1GCG (because their schedule is weak and their best win would be Northwestern)
Furthermore, as I stated in the OP, I believe that the SEC and ACC Champions are locks and that both Wisconsin and Oklahoma control their own destiny and are locks with wins in their respective CG's.  

That leaves three scenarios in which there is a question of what to do:
Scenario #1:  TCU and Wisconsin win:
The SEC and ACC Champions are in along with Wisconsin.  The contenders for the 4th spot are:
  • 11-1 non-Champion Bama
  • 11-2 B12 Champion TCU

Scenario #2:  Oklahoma and Ohio State win:
The SEC and ACC Champions are in along with Oklahoma.  The contenders for the 4th spot are:
  • 11-1 non-Champion Bama
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State

Scenario #3:  TCU and Ohio State win:
The SEC and ACC Champions are in.  The contenders for the 3rd and 4th spot are:
  • 11-1 non-Champion Bama
  • 11-2 B1G Champion Ohio State
  • 11-2 B12 Champion TCU

 

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