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Topic: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt

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CWSooner

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #28 on: November 26, 2017, 01:07:30 PM »
A 13-0 Wisconsin will be in.  No two ways about it.

A 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin will need a lot of help.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #29 on: November 26, 2017, 01:11:13 PM »
Wisconsin played as many P5 teams as Alabama played. Plus they played BYU who, along with ND, meets the P5 definition for B1G home office OOC scheduling guidelines.

.
Cool. That puts BYU on par with Army, Cincinnati, Navy and UConn. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #30 on: November 26, 2017, 01:17:24 PM »
Alabama plays an 8 game conference schedule. Period.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #31 on: November 26, 2017, 01:38:24 PM »
On the contrary...it means a ton.  They " pre position" based on what they anticipate will happen.
If they ranked then as if the playoff were now, it would clearly be Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Auburn...in some order.  So why don't they rank them that way.  And the next three would likely be Georgia, Miami and Bama in some order.
Where Wisconsin sits, for example is huge, should they happen to lose.   If you beat the number 5 team, not even close to if you beat the number 2 team for example. There are other examples.  They place them to get to a final place they like, not where they belong now.
perhaps, the committee has shown in the past, they can and will vote whoever they like the final week to get the four teams they like.
are you suggesting a 2-loss Ohio St. might get in if they rout a #2 ranked Badger team instead of a #5 ranked Badger team?  Ohio St needs plenty of outside help to have a chance, regardless of 3 or 4 places in the Badger's standing.
the teams that win P5 conference champ games next week with less than 2-losses are going to jump into the top 4.  Period.  Doesn't matter the ranking this week.
If the badgers, Canes, Sooners, and Dawgs win next week, there is the top 4.
If the Badgers or the Sooners lose Bama is in.
If the Badgers, Sooners, and Clemson lose next week, the Buckeyes will have a slim chance.  I suppose it's possible the Badger's ranking could make the difference.  I'd guess the Buckeyes get in over Clemson because the ACC champ is in and already have two SEC teams.  Not going to have a playoff with Bama, Auburn, Miami, and Clemson.
gonna be very interesting if there is an upset or two.
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FearlessF

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #32 on: November 26, 2017, 01:42:55 PM »
Bama's schedule is only slightly better than the Badgers because the Tide played Miss st and Auburn on the road, a solid LSU team at home

Badgers had Northwestern and Michigan at home and get the additional game vs Ohio St. at a neutral site

but, I'm sure the committee won't see it that way
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #33 on: November 26, 2017, 01:43:54 PM »
Good point.

Next year's schedule is really a juggernaut, with BYU, New Mexico and Western Kentucky all at home. 

As luck would have it though, Delany had the audacity to pollute the crossover schedule with a road game against Penn St. 
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #34 on: November 26, 2017, 02:10:13 PM »
If you assume the top 4 right now ( in no particular order) Oklahoma, Clemson, auburn and Wisconsin, then who are the next three?

To me, it is some order of Miami, Bama and Georgia.   But I would have both Miami and Georgia ahead of Bama, simply due to higher quality wins.  
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TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #35 on: November 26, 2017, 02:24:46 PM »
On the contrary...it means a ton.  They " pre position" based on what they anticipate will happen.
If they ranked then as if the playoff were now, it would clearly be Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Auburn...in some order.  So why don't they rank them that way.  And the next three would likely be Georgia, Miami and Bama in some order.
Where Wisconsin sits, for example is huge, should they happen to lose.   If you beat the number 5 team, not even close to if you beat the number 2 team for example. There are other examples.  They place them to get to a final place they like, not where they belong now.
Again, what I posted is just ESPN's projection of what the committee will do Tuesday. Committee has shown they will do things differently than traditional polls where wins move you up and losses move you down.

 :-\ Conspiracy Theory Tin Hat Time: If Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team is placed at 1 (or even in the Top 4) and OSU soundly beats them (FPI says they will, my gut says they won't) Then there is a narrative that OSU should be included in the top 4 by beating a top 4 team.
But If OSU soundly beats some "weak @ss chump team" from the weak @ss Big Ten West, that wasn't going to be included in the playoff anyway, then no need to include OSU for consideration when we have the ultimate, best-est, SEC team eva that just happens to be sitting over on the sidelines ready to go win a National title for the glory of eSECpn.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2017, 03:09:48 PM by TyphonInc »

bayareabadger

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2017, 02:27:31 PM »
Good point.

Next year's schedule is really a juggernaut, with BYU, New Mexico and Western Kentucky all at home.

As luck would have it though, Delany had the audacity to pollute the crossover schedule with a road game against Penn St.
Last year that woulda been pretty unpleasant actually. BYU was 9-4 and top-40 S&P+, WKU 11-3 and top-20 with Brohm and New Mexico was 9-4 against a softer schedule with that absurdly weird option offense. This year, that group is 12-24. 
In the Bama vs. UW thing, seems good to use S&P rank (granted there's some weird bunching there) with top-50
Bama:
No. 7 Auburn (Loss)
No. 20 LSU
No. 28 Miss State 
No. 50 Miss State
Good P5
No. 26 Fresno State (Those numbers really like Fresno for some reason)
No. 42 Colorado State
UW
No. 22 Michigan
No. 41 Purdue
No. 43 NW (the numbers aren't so hot on the Wildcats)
Good P5
No. 15 FAU (See Fresno State)
So Bama's is stronger at the moment, but beating 10-3 OSU might change that

bayareabadger

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #37 on: November 26, 2017, 02:29:49 PM »
Again, what I posted is just ESPN's projection of what the committee will do Tuesday. Committee has shown they will do things differently than traditional polls where wins move you up and losses move you down.
Conspiracy Theory Tin Hat Time: If Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team is placed at 1 (or even in the Top 4) and OSU soundly beats them (FPI says they will, my gut says they won't) Then there is a narrative that OSU should be included in the top 4 by beating a top 4 team.
But If OSU soundly beats some "weak @ss chump team" from the weak @ss Big Ten West, that wasn't going to be included in the playoff anyway, then no need to include OSU for consideration when we have the ultimate, best-est, SEC team eva that just happens to be sitting over on the sidelines raedy to go win a National title for the glory of eSECpn.
Whenever I see someone argue "My team has been screwed or is about to be screwed" I don't tend to put too much stock in it. Everyone wants to feel their team is getting jobbed. 
The prediction game is so front and center because people can't help but take it seriously. Poke around, don't get worked up, and when we get to the end, then we can start sorting things out. 

TyphonInc

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #38 on: November 26, 2017, 03:14:51 PM »
Would adding a crazy person icon help with the "Tin Hat" lead in? Personally, I'm not worked up over OSU and playoffs. My top 3 goals for OSU is 1) Beat M*ch*g*n (Check) 2) Win the Big Ten (punchers chance this weekend.) 3) Play in the Rose Bowl (13 person panel will decide if that can happen if they complete goal 2.)

Back to Wisconsin; sounder ESPN talking heads are coming around, 7 of the 8 project them in their top 4, and even 2 have them up to 3.

Kris61

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #39 on: November 26, 2017, 07:26:44 PM »
Whenever I see someone argue "My team has been screwed or is about to be screwed" I don't tend to put too much stock in it. Everyone wants to feel their team is getting jobbed.
The prediction game is so front and center because people can't help but take it seriously. Poke around, don't get worked up, and when we get to the end, then we can start sorting things out.
What's funny is on WVU's board you have people who swear to this day Wisconsin threw the 2014 Big Ten CCG so Ohio St could get in and the committee unfairly put Ohio St in last year because of the big alumni base and name recognition.  Then over here it's like Ohio St is "Lil' Johnny Underdog."  It's fascinating to get people's different perspectives.

847badgerfan

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #40 on: November 26, 2017, 07:33:08 PM »
What's funny is on WVU's board you have people who swear to this day Wisconsin threw the 2014 Big Ten CCG so Ohio St could get in and the committee unfairly put Ohio St in last year because of the big alumni base and name recognition.  Then over here it's like Ohio St is "Lil' Johnny Underdog."  It's fascinating to get people's different perspectives.
That is a major discredit to the players on that team. They didn't try to lose. 

Their coach quit on them, for sure, when he secretly accepted a new job the Tuesday before the game. I'd put it more on that than anything, but the truth is Ohio State was just a superior team. 59-0 superior, probably not. But superior nonetheless.
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Kris61

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Re: Playoff picture after Miami's loss to Pitt
« Reply #41 on: November 26, 2017, 07:40:55 PM »
That is a major discredit to the players on that team. They didn't try to lose.

Their coach quit on them, for sure, when he secretly accepted a new job the Tuesday before the game. I'd put it more on that than anything, but the truth is Ohio State was just a superior team. 59-0 superior, probably not. But superior nonetheless.
You don't have to convince me.  I'm not a conspiracy theorist but we have plenty of 'em.

 

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