CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 24, 2017, 05:02:45 PM
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Pitt has done it again. Just like 2007 when they tripped up WVU, the Panthers have tripped up a team that seemed to be closing in on an NC.
The playoff implication is clear: The ACC will get one and only one team into the CFP. Previously there was a question of what the committee would do with a 12-1 Miami as compared to a potential 2-loss P5 Champion (mathematically this could be Auburn, Georgia, Oklahoma, TCU, USC, WSU, or Ohio State).
The committee has consistently put P5 Champions ahead of non-Champions with the same number of losses. Thus, I think that the only potential non-champions that are realistic threats for CFP berths are:
- 12-1 or 11-1 Bama
- 10-2 Notre Dame
- 12-1 Wisconsin
Playoff locks:
- The SEC Champion. This will be either 13-0 Bama, 12-1 UGA, 11-2 UGA, or 11-2 Auburn
- The ACC Champion. This will be either 11-1 Miami, 12-1 Clemson, or 11-2 Clemson
That is it and that leaves two spots up for grabs.
Bama winning out would eliminate UGA and Auburn as contenders and potentially open up room for ND, tOSU, USC, TCU, or WSU.
If Bama loses one of their last two, they are probably in as a one-loss non-Champion.
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Nick Saban is a machine. I really don't see BAMA losing to Auburn and to the SEC East champ. They might lose one- and even then I think that's a stretch. They sure is as hell aren't going to lose both. I think it's a very high likelyhood that BAMA is in. Clemson and Miami will knock one of eachother out.
With the way Baker Mayfield has been playing, I think Oklahoma will win out and be in.
3 teams that are most likely in it- Bama, OU, MIA/Clem winner.
Wisconsin will have to beat Ohio State in the B1G CCG to get a playoff spot. I don't think they'll get the love to get in with 1 loss. I'd pick Wisconsin to beat Ohio State, but I don't have a ton of faith in Alex Honibrook. I think the aforementioned 3 teams will be in the playoff, and then Ohio State will throw a monkey wrench in this whole thing when they beat Wisconsin in the B1G CG. Who would be the 4th team in....I have no idea.
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bama will be out of the SEC CG with a loss to Auburn- and UGA will have to play Auburn again. they'd most likely lose that one too if it comes to happen, which reopens the door for Bama. damn circular logic.
if bama beats Auburn and loses to UGA, then both of them are likely in- and with ND tagging along due to the bumping of a strong loss. that is not likely to happen, though... but it could.
either Bama, Auburn or UGA will rep the SEC is all the certainty there is there.... outside chance there will be two.
i think USCe knocks Clemson down, who knocks Miami down another rung in their CCG.
Wiscy winning out is in...
OU and ND will argue about the fourth, and without the Stoops factor playing for the first time in a while, that will be an argument.
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I'd be shocked if Bama is left out now so pencil them in.
Teams in if they win out
-Sconnie
-UGA
-Clemson/Miami
Needs to win out and have Bama win out
-Oklahoma
Potential 2 loss teams
-Clemson
-Auburn
-Ohio State
I can't see any of the other 2 loss teams getting in.
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Clemson is out with 2 losses
a 2 loss ND team does not win an argument with a one-loss Sooner team
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Nick Saban is a machine. I really don't see BAMA losing to Auburn and to the SEC East champ.
Alabama can only lose to 1. They won't play in the SEC Title game with a loss to Auburn.
Get Off My Lawn moment: For OSU my priorities have always been: 1) Beat M*ch**g*n! 2) Win the Big Ten 3) Play in the Rose Bowl.
With The Rose Bowl being part of the Playoff this I'm interested in scenarios that Get OSU to the Rose.
According to FPI, OSU is projected to win their next 2 games (Can they do it? Eye-Oh-Wah?) And, if all the favorites hold serve the easy answer is to include Ohio State in the playoff; but Oh ESPN:
ESPN talking heads are saying they would take 2 loss, non-conference champ Clemson over OSU because their 1 bad loss they didn't have their starting QB.
ESPN talking heads are also saying they would take a 2 loss, non-conference champ Notre Dame over OSU, because of their strength of schedule.
ESPN talking heads are saying they would take a 2 loss, non-conference champ Oklahoma over OSU because of Head to Head.
ESPN talking Heads are saying they would take a 2 loss, Pac12 champ USC over OSU because number of quality wins.
According to ESPN, OSU will not be in the playoff. So let's hop back on the BEAT M*CH*G*N! train.
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Alabama can only lose to 1. They won't play in the SEC Title game with a loss to Auburn.
Get Off My Lawn moment: For OSU my priorities have always been: 1) Beat M*ch**g*n! 2) Win the Big Ten 3) Play in the Rose Bowl.
With The Rose Bowl being part of the Playoff this I'm interested in scenarios that Get OSU to the Rose.
According to FPI, OSU is projected to win their next 2 games (Can they do it? Eye-Oh-Wah?) And, if all the favorites hold serve the easy answer is to include Ohio State in the playoff; but Oh ESPN:
ESPN talking heads are saying they would take 2 loss, non-conference champ Clemson over OSU because their 1 bad loss they didn't have their starting QB.
ESPN talking heads are also saying they would take a 2 loss, non-conference champ Notre Dame over OSU, because of their strength of schedule.
ESPN talking heads are saying they would take a 2 loss, non-conference champ Oklahoma over OSU because of Head to Head.
ESPN talking Heads are saying they would take a 2 loss, Pac12 champ USC over OSU because number of quality wins.
According to ESPN, OSU will not be in the playoff. So let's hop back on the BEAT M*CH*G*N! train.
It's almost like the worse Syracuse looks--and the Orange lost again today--the more ESPN emphasizes that injury to Clemson's QB. As if losing a guy with a 7:5 TD:INT ratio is the end of the world. And even if he were the best QB in college football, that whole rationale is baloney.
I wouldn't want Oklahoma to have a rematch with Ohio State in the playoff, but a 2-loss B1G-champion tOSU would be more deserving than a 2-loss non-champ Clemson.
Even if all else fails, today you did accomplish your first priority. That's not nothing.
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if Clemson can't beat the Canes, they are not deserving
the Canes are not that good
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Neither Clemson nor Miami has the body of work to go with 2 losses. One, and one only, ACC team in the CFP.
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hopefully only one SEC team as well
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hopefully only one SEC team as well
I'm with you but Alabama will still get in if Georgia loses. I think.
Clemson or Miami should get in- not both. Oklahoma should get in if they take care of business against TCU. Wisconsin should get in if they take care of business against Ohio State.
Will come down to who wins the SEC title.
Alabama's resume is just not that impressive. Who have they played? Auburn and that's pretty much it and Auburn just wiped the floor with them.
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Bama's schedule is kind of meh but they'll get in anyway.
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well, we need the badgers to beat Urban to really put pressure on the committee
will Big Jim Delany call Urban before the game to let him know he's screwed to avoid the temper tantrum on the sideline during the game when the zebras put in the fix?
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does the Big 12 "fix" their conference champ game to get the Sooners in?
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Bama's schedule is kind of meh but they'll get in anyway.
Yeah idk. That schedule was baaaad. Obviously FSU being a 5 win team and falling apart really hurt that schedule. The other teams OOC were Colorado State, Fresno State, and fricken Mercer.
Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Miss State, and Auburn was their conference schedule. Ole Miss, UT, Ark, and A&M all lost their coaches just prior to the season or during the season or right at the end of the season.
Pretty horrendous schedule. They barely escaped Miss State and the one really good team they played was Auburn and Auburn wiped the floor with them.
I really don't think Alabama belongs. They needed to beat Auburn and Georgia in the SEC CG to prove they belonged.
If the committee is going to hold Wisc to that same standard they should hold Alabama.
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does the Big 12 "fix" their conference champ game to get the Sooners in?
The fix didn't appear to be in today. It was a chippy game with WVU, and a lot of the flags thrown, including an ejection that the TV guys (and I) thought unjustified, went against the Sooners.
Next week in Arlington should be something to watch. You know those zebras always stick it to us in Texas. If they don't, that means the fix is in. ;-)
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I'm pretty sure our 4 will be:
1) SEC Champ Auburn/Georgia
2) ACC Champ Clemson/Miami
3) Oklahoma if they beat TCU
4) Wisconsin if they Beat OSU.
5) Alabama if OU or UW stub their toe in the title game.
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Something fishy. Well at least by ESPN standards, they are projecting Wisconsin at 5, and 2 loss Auburn will hop over everyone.
1) Auburn
2) Clemson
3) Georgia
4) Oklahoma
Auburn/Georgia Loser is out.
5) Wisconsin - Win and In vs. OSU
6) Alabama - Rooting for OSU/TCU to win then Sit at Home and In
7) Miami - Win and In vs. #2 Clemson
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Something fishy. Well at least by ESPN standards, they are projecting Wisconsin at 5, and 2 loss Auburn will hop over everyone.
1) Auburn
2) Clemson
3) Georgia
4) Oklahoma
Auburn/Georgia Loser is out.
5) Wisconsin - Win and In vs. OSU
6) Alabama - Rooting for OSU/TCU to win then Sit at Home and In
7) Miami - Win and In vs. #2 Clemson
So Wisconsin, the ONLY undefeated Power Five team left, starts at number 5. They get a convincing road win, two teams in front of them lose, and they are still at 5?
That is fishy, and it stinks.
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Alabama is going to get a pass, and in most years they probably should, but this year they shouldn't.
My bucks are out even with a win , I think the highest they can get is 5. And to be honest, I don't see how we could beat Oklahoma, auburn or Clemson so it's probably a good thing
Pretty much agree it's sec champ, ACC champ, Oklahoma with a win, wiscy with a win.
If either Oklahoma or wiscy loses then Bama is in, if they both lose then Bama is in, a Clemson loser would be next, if Clemson wins then maybe USC or TCU
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Something fishy. Well at least by ESPN standards, they are projecting Wisconsin at 5, and 2 loss Auburn will hop over everyone.
1) Auburn
2) Clemson
3) Georgia
4) Oklahoma
Auburn/Georgia Loser is out.
5) Wisconsin - Win and In vs. OSU
6) Alabama - Rooting for OSU/TCU to win then Sit at Home and In
7) Miami - Win and In vs. #2 Clemson
They're projecting OSU to beat UW? Is that fishy. The Auburn thing is weird, because Clemson will def be ahead of them. Are we sure this isn't he "chance of making the playoff chart"?
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So Wisconsin, the ONLY undefeated Power Five team left, starts at number 5. They get a convincing road win, two teams in front of them lose, and they are still at 5?
That is fishy, and it stinks.
Projecting.
That means they're saying if Wisconsin is 12-1 non-conferece champ. This is not about what happened this week or the poll movement nonsense.
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ESPN (Herbstreit specifically) was projecting what the committee will release this Tuesday.
Not the final poll. Sorry for any confusion. The 1-6 was what they think Tuesday will look like, and then they commented how it will also look a week from now. (That I included after the "-")
Wisconsin is a win and in team, but will be sitting at #5 this Tuesday night.
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this Tuesdays poll means nothing
meant to spur discussion - so putting an undefeated team at #5 and a 2 loss team in the top 2 starts discussion
if Auburn and Clemson win out, what's the chance they meet in the first round? zero percent?
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this Tuesdays poll means nothing
meant to spur discussion - so putting an undefeated team at #5 and a 2 loss team in the top 2 starts discussion
if Auburn and Clemson win out, what's the chance they meet in the first round? zero percent?
On the contrary...it means a ton. They " pre position" based on what they anticipate will happen.
If they ranked then as if the playoff were now, it would clearly be Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Auburn...in some order. So why don't they rank them that way. And the next three would likely be Georgia, Miami and Bama in some order.
Where Wisconsin sits, for example is huge, should they happen to lose. If you beat the number 5 team, not even close to if you beat the number 2 team for example. There are other examples. They place them to get to a final place they like, not where they belong now.
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I could see the committee leaving Wisconsin out in order to "send a message" about scheduling at least one P5 opponent in the non-Conference.
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Wisconsin played as many P5 teams as Alabama played. Plus they played BYU who, along with ND, meets the P5 definition for B1G home office OOC scheduling guidelines.
Anyway, from Paul Finbaum...
"Wisconsin has 3-4 losses with Alabama's schedule."
"FSU would have killed Wisconsin"
Go F yourself, ass clown.
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If the committe wanted to send a message they wouldn't have put Washington in the playoff last year
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A 13-0 Wisconsin will be in. No two ways about it.
A 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin will need a lot of help.
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Wisconsin played as many P5 teams as Alabama played. Plus they played BYU who, along with ND, meets the P5 definition for B1G home office OOC scheduling guidelines.
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Cool. That puts BYU on par with Army, Cincinnati, Navy and UConn.
Big Ten (2016+)
Any team from the ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC, plus Army, BYU, Cincinnati, Navy, Notre Dame, and UConn. No FCS opponents.
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Alabama plays an 8 game conference schedule. Period.
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On the contrary...it means a ton. They " pre position" based on what they anticipate will happen.
If they ranked then as if the playoff were now, it would clearly be Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Auburn...in some order. So why don't they rank them that way. And the next three would likely be Georgia, Miami and Bama in some order.
Where Wisconsin sits, for example is huge, should they happen to lose. If you beat the number 5 team, not even close to if you beat the number 2 team for example. There are other examples. They place them to get to a final place they like, not where they belong now.
perhaps, the committee has shown in the past, they can and will vote whoever they like the final week to get the four teams they like.
are you suggesting a 2-loss Ohio St. might get in if they rout a #2 ranked Badger team instead of a #5 ranked Badger team? Ohio St needs plenty of outside help to have a chance, regardless of 3 or 4 places in the Badger's standing.
the teams that win P5 conference champ games next week with less than 2-losses are going to jump into the top 4. Period. Doesn't matter the ranking this week.
If the badgers, Canes, Sooners, and Dawgs win next week, there is the top 4.
If the Badgers or the Sooners lose Bama is in.
If the Badgers, Sooners, and Clemson lose next week, the Buckeyes will have a slim chance. I suppose it's possible the Badger's ranking could make the difference. I'd guess the Buckeyes get in over Clemson because the ACC champ is in and already have two SEC teams. Not going to have a playoff with Bama, Auburn, Miami, and Clemson.
gonna be very interesting if there is an upset or two.
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Bama's schedule is only slightly better than the Badgers because the Tide played Miss st and Auburn on the road, a solid LSU team at home
Badgers had Northwestern and Michigan at home and get the additional game vs Ohio St. at a neutral site
but, I'm sure the committee won't see it that way
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Good point.
Next year's schedule is really a juggernaut, with BYU, New Mexico and Western Kentucky all at home.
As luck would have it though, Delany had the audacity to pollute the crossover schedule with a road game against Penn St.
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If you assume the top 4 right now ( in no particular order) Oklahoma, Clemson, auburn and Wisconsin, then who are the next three?
To me, it is some order of Miami, Bama and Georgia. But I would have both Miami and Georgia ahead of Bama, simply due to higher quality wins.
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On the contrary...it means a ton. They " pre position" based on what they anticipate will happen.
If they ranked then as if the playoff were now, it would clearly be Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Auburn...in some order. So why don't they rank them that way. And the next three would likely be Georgia, Miami and Bama in some order.
Where Wisconsin sits, for example is huge, should they happen to lose. If you beat the number 5 team, not even close to if you beat the number 2 team for example. There are other examples. They place them to get to a final place they like, not where they belong now.
Again, what I posted is just ESPN's projection of what the committee will do Tuesday. Committee has shown they will do things differently than traditional polls where wins move you up and losses move you down.
:-\ Conspiracy Theory Tin Hat Time: If Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team is placed at 1 (or even in the Top 4) and OSU soundly beats them (FPI says they will, my gut says they won't) Then there is a narrative that OSU should be included in the top 4 by beating a top 4 team.
But If OSU soundly beats some "weak @ss chump team" from the weak @ss Big Ten West, that wasn't going to be included in the playoff anyway, then no need to include OSU for consideration when we have the ultimate, best-est, SEC team eva that just happens to be sitting over on the sidelines ready to go win a National title for the glory of eSECpn.
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Good point.
Next year's schedule is really a juggernaut, with BYU, New Mexico and Western Kentucky all at home.
As luck would have it though, Delany had the audacity to pollute the crossover schedule with a road game against Penn St.
Last year that woulda been pretty unpleasant actually. BYU was 9-4 and top-40 S&P+, WKU 11-3 and top-20 with Brohm and New Mexico was 9-4 against a softer schedule with that absurdly weird option offense. This year, that group is 12-24.
In the Bama vs. UW thing, seems good to use S&P rank (granted there's some weird bunching there) with top-50
Bama:
No. 7 Auburn (Loss)
No. 20 LSU
No. 28 Miss State
No. 50 Miss State
Good P5
No. 26 Fresno State (Those numbers really like Fresno for some reason)
No. 42 Colorado State
UW
No. 22 Michigan
No. 41 Purdue
No. 43 NW (the numbers aren't so hot on the Wildcats)
Good P5
No. 15 FAU (See Fresno State)
So Bama's is stronger at the moment, but beating 10-3 OSU might change that
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Again, what I posted is just ESPN's projection of what the committee will do Tuesday. Committee has shown they will do things differently than traditional polls where wins move you up and losses move you down.
Conspiracy Theory Tin Hat Time: If Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team is placed at 1 (or even in the Top 4) and OSU soundly beats them (FPI says they will, my gut says they won't) Then there is a narrative that OSU should be included in the top 4 by beating a top 4 team.
But If OSU soundly beats some "weak @ss chump team" from the weak @ss Big Ten West, that wasn't going to be included in the playoff anyway, then no need to include OSU for consideration when we have the ultimate, best-est, SEC team eva that just happens to be sitting over on the sidelines raedy to go win a National title for the glory of eSECpn.
Whenever I see someone argue "My team has been screwed or is about to be screwed" I don't tend to put too much stock in it. Everyone wants to feel their team is getting jobbed.
The prediction game is so front and center because people can't help but take it seriously. Poke around, don't get worked up, and when we get to the end, then we can start sorting things out.
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Would adding a crazy person icon help with the "Tin Hat" lead in? Personally, I'm not worked up over OSU and playoffs. My top 3 goals for OSU is 1) Beat M*ch*g*n (Check) 2) Win the Big Ten (punchers chance this weekend.) 3) Play in the Rose Bowl (13 person panel will decide if that can happen if they complete goal 2.)
Back to Wisconsin; sounder ESPN talking heads are coming around, 7 of the 8 project them in their top 4, and even 2 have them up to 3.
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Whenever I see someone argue "My team has been screwed or is about to be screwed" I don't tend to put too much stock in it. Everyone wants to feel their team is getting jobbed.
The prediction game is so front and center because people can't help but take it seriously. Poke around, don't get worked up, and when we get to the end, then we can start sorting things out.
What's funny is on WVU's board you have people who swear to this day Wisconsin threw the 2014 Big Ten CCG so Ohio St could get in and the committee unfairly put Ohio St in last year because of the big alumni base and name recognition. Then over here it's like Ohio St is "Lil' Johnny Underdog." It's fascinating to get people's different perspectives.
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What's funny is on WVU's board you have people who swear to this day Wisconsin threw the 2014 Big Ten CCG so Ohio St could get in and the committee unfairly put Ohio St in last year because of the big alumni base and name recognition. Then over here it's like Ohio St is "Lil' Johnny Underdog." It's fascinating to get people's different perspectives.
That is a major discredit to the players on that team. They didn't try to lose.
Their coach quit on them, for sure, when he secretly accepted a new job the Tuesday before the game. I'd put it more on that than anything, but the truth is Ohio State was just a superior team. 59-0 superior, probably not. But superior nonetheless.
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That is a major discredit to the players on that team. They didn't try to lose.
Their coach quit on them, for sure, when he secretly accepted a new job the Tuesday before the game. I'd put it more on that than anything, but the truth is Ohio State was just a superior team. 59-0 superior, probably not. But superior nonetheless.
You don't have to convince me. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but we have plenty of 'em.
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What's funny is on WVU's board you have people who swear to this day Wisconsin threw the 2014 Big Ten CCG so Ohio St could get in and the committee unfairly put Ohio St in last year because of the big alumni base and name recognition. Then over here it's like Ohio St is "Lil' Johnny Underdog." It's fascinating to get people's different perspectives.
Yes..I am sure they think Alabama threw the semi final and Oregon the final.
I don't see anything or anyone over here promoting Ohio State as what you describe.
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I'm not sure Jim Delany would stick it to the Buckeyes for any reason, even if it means being left out of the playoff
no underdog