Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I'll update once the CFP rankings come out Tuesday night but for now, using the AP Poll as a guide and assuming that the favorite wins the CG, the teams would be:

• #1 Oregon 13-0, B1G Champs
• #2 Texas 12-1, SEC Champs 
• #8 SMU 12-1, ACC Champs
• #10 Boise State 12-1 MWC Champs
• #3 Penn State 11-2 at-large
• #4 Notre Dame 11-1 at-large
• #5 Georgia 10-3 at-large
• #6 Tennessee 10-2 at-large
• #7 Ohio State 10-2 at-large
• #9 Indiana 11-1 at-large
• #11 Bama 9-3 at-large
• #12 Arizona State 11-2 B12 Champs

So the match-ups would be:

• Arizona State at Penn State, winner vs Boise St
• Bama at Notre Dame, winner vs SMU
• Indiana at Georgia, winner vs Texas
• Ohio State at Tennessee, winner vs Oregon

Most of the CG's have very little impact on the playoffs overall, here they are sorted from least to most impactful:
B12CG, #12 ASU vs #16 ISU:
As I see it, this game is for the #12 seed so it only impacts these two teams directly.  

MWCCG, #10 Boise vs #19 UNLV:
Boise is favored by 3.5 at home. An upset would move the B12 Champion up to the #4 seed and put UNLV in as the #12 seed.  

B1GCG, #1 Oregon vs #3 Penn State:
Oregon is favored by 3.5 (give the points).  An upset doesn't change much for the rest of the field.  If PSU wins I would expect Texas to slide up to #1 with PSU at #2, and Oregon at #3.  

SECCG, #2 Texas vs #5 Georgia:
Texas is favored by 2.5.  With an upset, Georgia would take Texas' spot as the #2 seed and Texas would probably drop to the #5 seed which would push PSU and ND down one seed each.  

ACCCG, #8 SMU vs #18 Clemson:
SMU is favored by 2.5 but this game is in Charlotte and I could easily see Clemson winning.  If they do, I think that knocks Bama out because Clemson would get an auto-bid and SMU would likely still be in at 11-2.  

If you compare the resumes of Penn St and Ohio St,  there is an argument that Ohio St should still be ranked ahead of Penn St in the CFP. 

Ohio St has good wins over Penn St and Indiana and close losses to Oregon and Mich.  Also a close win over Nebraska,  where OSU almost lost.

Penn St,  it's best win is over Illinois and PSU has 2 close wins, over USC and Minnesota,  where PSU almost lost.

It is a credible argument except that Ohio State's second loss was to a crappy team.  You can't play like that and expect to get any favors.  

Besides, I think Ohio State is better off with a road game in the playoffs.  If they had to play at home after that disaster, it would be ugly.  

Yes, if Penn State has the same record as Ohio Ohio State, and Ohio, Ohio State beat them in their own stadium. It’s hard to imagine Penn State being ranked higher.

on the other hand, when you ship the bed like Ohio State just did you really don’t have any basis to defend yourself lol

Most of the CG's have very little impact on the playoffs overall.

Color me a bit confused by this. 

Of five in play, two are play-ins, with 4-12 seed chicanery in play. One is maybe a play-in, with weird odds of 3-loss Clemson creating some weird seeding mess. 

The other two are what? Flipping byes and maybe jostling the non-bye spots depending on how they fall? 

What kinda CCG would have a big impact? 

Color me a bit confused by this.

Of five in play, two are play-ins, with 4-12 seed chicanery in play. One is maybe a play-in, with weird odds of 3-loss Clemson creating some weird seeding mess.

The other two are what? Flipping byes and maybe jostling the non-bye spots depending on how they fall?

What kinda CCG would have a big impact?

I didn't do a very good job of explaining what I meant.  I meant a big impact on OTHER teams, not just the teams in the game.  

Ie, look at the B12CG.  As I see it, this game is a play-in, but it ONLY impacts the two teams playing in the game.  It is effectively a playoff game for them but that is it.  

That is why I see the ACCCG as the most impactful.  In that one, I think that SMU is in regardless and Clemson is in ONLY if they win.  Thus, that game impacts SMU, Clemson, and some other team not just the two involved.  

Definitely coming into focus

Currently, Oregon, Texas, SMU, and Boise get byes.

• PSU hosts Arizona State
• OSU hosts Tennessee
• ND hosts Alabama
• Georgia hosts Indiana

Those are likely the teams in some order, with one big exception is if Clemson beats SMU. Then it comes down to SMU and Alabama for the last spot. Well, and Iowa State could sub in for ASU

Alabama is getting in come hell, or high water.  Make no mistake about that.  

SMU better win, or they’re out.  Which is total BS.  Bama should not get in.  

I’m personally ok with penalizing teams that play in a CCG.  The reason being the conferences are so big now that teams within the same conference can play very different schedules.  So, I don’t always put a lot of stock in one team playing in a CCG and another didn’t.

Penn St and Ohio State are in the same conference but besides playing each other only had one common opponent, Purdue.  So if Penn St gets beat in the CCG I’m ok with dropping them behind teams from other conferences or even teams within its own conference.

The fact that conference schedules are NOWHERE close to equivalent even within the same conference is going to take some getting used to.  

Per your example, Ohio State's B1G opponents were 44-37 which is 11 games better than Penn State's B1G opponents who went 33-48.  There were eight B1G teams that finished >.500 in the league:  Ohio State played five of them, PSU and ORE played three each, IU played two.  

In the past I think we just said "B1G Schedule" or "SEC Schedule" and viewed all of the B1G schedules and all of the SEC schedules as more-or-less interchangeable but in the era of gigantic mega-conferences where each team is only playing half of the league's teams, that simply isn't true anymore.  

To put this in perspective, here are Oregon's, Penn State's, Indiana's, and Ohio State's league opponents arranged their final records:


This has made the phrase "B1G Schedule" altogether meaningless because which one, tOSU's or IU's?  

There is a reasonable argument to have Ohio State ranked ahead of Penn State if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon, particularly if it is a bad loss.  That said, I can't see the committee dropping PSU because the team immediately behind them is ridiculously overrated.  The Irish only played one game against a currently ranked team and that was against barely-ranked #24 Army.  Despite their Charmin-soft schedule the Irish managed to lose a game.  Granted, Ohio State also lost to an unranked team but you can't credibly argue that the NoIL team that finished .500 in the MAC is as good as a team that finished >.500 in the B1G.  Thus, Ohio State's losses were both to teams better than the team that beat ND and the Irish's best wins were over Army and aTm which are barely ranked and barely unranked.