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Howdy BBTZ.

Some Small updates:

According to Franklin, the Tight Ends, Running Backs, and Offensive line "have a chance" to be better than last year.  In Franklin speak, that means they will be better than last year.

Only general coach speak about the wide receivers and QB.

Franklin in regards to Allar:  “He’s in a really good place,” Franklin said. “... There’s a lot of things like that to be excited about. He’s also good in the meeting room. I think Sean Clifford really helped with that. So there’s a lot of things to be excited about but we got to build on it and take the next step.”

OC: “Physically he looks great,” Yurcich said. “He’s in tip top shape. His body looks great. The mental aspect of it, the more time you get with them the more well-versed they are. Everything seems to be on schedule and he’s progressing forward very nicely.”

In regards to the WRs:

“So I think we came out of spring saying, ‘OK, we feel good that we’ve got two and a question mark on the third'”

“I thought Omari, the way he ended spring ball I think really helped. That really helped us feeling like we had three guys that had done it in Beaver Stadium. Obviously you’ve got Malick Meiga who’s played a ton of football here and we’re going to need him to continue to compete for one of those jobs. Malik McClain is a guy, there was a lot of buzz, especially from you guys, about him coming in. It’s going to be interesting. He looked great this morning, running and moving around. I’ve heard great things about him. I’ve noticed Kaden Saunders. He kind of jumped out to me. Anthony Ivey’s probably one of the more natural receivers that we have. There’s a bunch of guys that I could mention,” Franklin said. “… Liam’s a guy that I don’t think gets talked about. He’s got a chance because he’s got the intelligence and understanding of the offense. He can play multiple positions.”

In regards to Dante Cephus, the transfer WR from Kent State, who arrived after spring practice:
(Cephus is projected to challenge for the #1 WR spot)

"It's been tough to give a full evaluation of Cephas because of just how limited (things have been)," offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich recently said. "I mean, I can tell you after a few practices, but we haven't practiced yet. Just been some drill work."

"He looks athletic. We knew that coming into it," Yurcich said. "He's a really good route runner. He's got really good hands, got a really good skill set. But on top of that, I just need more familiarity with him and more work with him."

"Haven't been able to see him go one on one yet with my eyes, haven't been able to see him competing against another human being. So it's gonna be an incomplete eval for him."

It sounds like this should be their year if they are to have one any time soonish.

Everything I read is that the PSU defense is gonna be special. Tons of talent.

Could this be PSU's year? Iowa is seemingly always a PIA for PSU. M at home is winnable.

Crossovers are all beatable.

Penn State's defense on the outside will probably be the best in the conference.  The starting cornerbacks, defensive ends, and outside linebackers are among the best in the entire country.  However, they aren't very stout in the middle.  There is TONS of experience at the safety, MLB and DT positions, but there isn't a lot of star power.  

Penn State was not very good against power runs up the middle in 2022, and I don't think that will change much in 2023.  They did improve throughout last year, but they also lost 3 NFL players in the off season.  PJ Mustipher (UDFA), Ji’Ayir Brown (3rd), and Jonathan Sutherland (UDFA)

In a perfect world: 
-The return of Manny Diaz as the defensive coordinator for a second season will lead to continued improvement.  (Likely)
-At least one of the DT's on the roster will surprise everyone and be a force inside (Not Likely)
-There are a bunch of talented guys at the safety position.  Hopefully one will break through with NFL potential. (Likely)
-No Major injuries
-The Fighting Harbaughs step on a bunch of legos before they roll into state college.

Interesting that their crossovers are their first three league games. PSU would still control their own destiny with a loss in any one of those, of course.

Their new starting QB won't really be new anymore by the time they play tOSU and M in October and November but he will be for their trip to Champagne-Urbana and when they host Iowa. Those are games that PSU could lose, particularly if Allar has a "freshman" game.

As an Ohio State fan I REALLY don't like the setup for the PSU/tOSU game: Penn State's three weeks prior are effectively three weeks off so they have most of a month to prepare for the Buckeyes.

The obvious starting point for this discussion is the tOSU and M games. Penn State hasn't beaten tOSU since 2016, they haven't won in Columbus since 2011, and the haven't beaten both tOSU and M in the same season since 2008. If they can't leap at least one of those hurdles then they'll be third in their own division even if they are a nationally top-10 team.

I do not know if this is the year that Penn State could win the division.  Michigan looks downright scary.  However, Penn State is close enough that if they catch a few lucky breaks it is possible.

I do not know if this is the year that Penn State could win the division.  Michigan looks downright scary.  However, Penn State is close enough that if they catch a few lucky breaks it is possible.

The thing that makes it relatively unlikely, IMHO, is that if PSU can't beat Michigan, their path to Indy gets really tricky. 

Even if PSU beats everyone else including Ohio State in Columbus, they'd still need Michigan to lose twice. The most likely of those would be Ohio State but even that is a reach. If we are operating on the assumption that PSU wins in Columbus and loses at home to Michigan then they need a tOSU team that was bad enough to lose to them at home to somehow be good enough to win on the road against a team that PSU wasn't good enough to beat at home. Stranger things have happened, but it isn't likely. 

More doubtful is where Michigan's other loss is going to come from. Michigan's crossovers are Minnesota, Purdue, and Nebraska.  247 picks those teams 8th, 11th, and 10th in the league respectively. 

By the way, good to see you BBTZ!

If OSU, UM, and PSU each lose one game to each other, it would go to the tiebreaker, which is opponents records.  That still doesn't favor PSU, but it IS another way they get in.

It is a possibility but I just think it is pretty unlikely. Using projected final records from 247, here are the projected cumulative records of Ohio State's, Penn State's, and Michigan's crossovers:

Ohio State, 15-12

• 7-2 Wisconsin 
• 6-3 Minnesota 
• 2-7 Purdue 

Michigan, 13-14

• 6-3 Minnesota 
• 5-4 Nebraska 
• 2-7 Purdue 

Penn State, 9-18

• 6-3 Iowa
• 3-6 Illinois 
• 0-9 Northwestern

I'm not saying that I agree exactly with 247's projections, I'm just using them as a starting point and Penn State's opponents have a LOT of ground to make up based on these projections.