I think Michigan will be ready on both sides, and definitely on defense.
People are suddenly starting to doubt Don Brown. And I think that's the wrong response to last week's beat down. He's still finishing with three Top 5 overall defenses in three years, after all.
My explanation for last week?
He's historically a great in-game adapter. Very consistently gifted at that. What 2017 PSU and 2018 OSU taught us though is that he's human and his knack for these adaptations have limits. (And in one sense, I think these limitations in those two games might come down to pride or overconfidence.) That when his base defense needs nuanced tweaks to squash an opponent, he's as good as any DC in the country at finding/timing those in real-time. BUT if he enters a game faaaaaaar miscalculating the weaknesses of his defense and needs to entirely revamp his front or coverage (switching from all-man to all-zone is particularly extreme case for Don) to win, he's too overcome with shock to make those changes in time.
I guess that makes him the ideal DC to have in the offseason and still perhaps the nation's best in *allllmost* every game, but in 0-1 games per year, that ego gets to him.
Well at least I'm calling it ego. And happy to forgive him for that if I'm right. I could be wrong. It could just be boilerplate shock. And I'll forgive him for that too. If you've proven you're the nation's runaway #1 defense through 11 games, it's reasonable to expect you can run your business without revamping who you are before the next game.
Having said that, Rutgers in Game 10 was the first offense to sort of consistently test this defense. They did it with crossing routes. Mixed with Michigan not getting a sack. IU in Game 11 took it slightly further with the same poor pressure from M. But neither were objectively bad games on D for Michigan. They just weren't the sub-200-total-yard smashings we'd been treated to prior. Fans explained it away citing injuries and looking ahead to OSU. We even mentioned that we'd played some QBs on off days and should maybe dial back expectations by 20% anyway. That was all reasonable but only educated guesses. And it seems Don Brown treated them with the same probability as fans.
And in the OSU game when the DL couldn't get pressure (even when they NEEDED to) and Michigan's man coverage proved Watson's great season was built on smarts not speed, Don got caught flat-footed. But whereas fans could afford the shock, he couldn't. Should have changed the front into something blitz heavy early. Should have switched to zone by drive #2 or 3.
But again, those are seismic changes for the runaway #1 national defense through 11 games. I'll forgive him for messing it up. But he did. And that's his limitation. He can build a great defense and tweak it masterfully in-game. But when asked to break it all down and start over to stop the bleeding, he can't try.
It's not the worst weakness in the world. And his strengths helped him masterfully outscheme OSU in 2016 and (maybe) win a closer chess match in 2017. But 2017 PSU and 2018 OSU are the real painful consequences when that one weakness comes out.
As for UF:
If I'm right, then they're double-doomed. For one, now Don Brown knows this weakness way in advance. For two, their offense is nothing like 2017 PSU or 2018 OSU.
