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Topic: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

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Cincydawg

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Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« on: August 09, 2018, 09:04:39 AM »
I'm going with USC (the real one).

They remind me of Richt-coached UGA teams a bit now, high on talent and prone to losing twice inexplicably.  Maybe they get it done this year.  They could be 12-1 and very likely make the final four (FF, if they win the CG of course).

Maybe this thread won't get lost in turmoil this year?

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ELA

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2018, 09:20:58 AM »
Considering I have them starting 1-2 in my projections, I will not be going with the Trojans.
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fezzador

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2018, 09:38:49 AM »
Of teams outside the Top 10, I think Sparty and Stanford have the best chances.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2018, 10:38:26 AM »
A bit of history on this:
In four years of the CFP we have had four teams from outside the preseason AP top-10 make the playoff for an average of one per year but it hasn't been consistently one each year:
  • One in 2017:  #15 UGA
  • One in 2016:  #14 Washington
  • Two in 2015:  #12 Clemson and #19 Oklahoma
  • None in 2014
History of preseason AP rank getting to the playoff:
  • #1 has made it three out of four years
  • #2 has made it two out of four years
  • #3 has made it two out of four years
  • #4 has never made it
  • #5 has made it three out of four years
  • #6 has made it once
  • #7 has made it once
  • #8 has never made it
  • #9 has never made it
  • #10 has never made it
  • #11 has never made it
  • #12 has made it once
  • #13 has never made it
  • #14 has made it once
  • #15 has made it once
  • #16 has never made it
  • #17 has never made it
  • #18 has never made it
  • #19 has made it once
  • #20 and all teams ranked #21 and below have never made it
Percentage of teams making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
  • #1: 75%, 3 of 4
  • top-2:  62.5%, 5 of 8
  • top-3:  58.3%, 7 of 12
  • top-4:  43.8%, 7 of 16
  • top-5:  50%, 10 of 20
  • top-6:  45.8%, 11 of 24
  • top-7:  42.9%, 12 of 28
  • top-8:  37.5%, 12 of 32
  • top-9:  33.3%, 12 of 36
  • top-10:  30%, 12 of 40
  • top-11:  27.3%, 12 of 44
  • top-12:  27.1%, 13 of 48
  • top-13:  25%, 13 of 52
  • top-14:  25%, 14 of 56
  • top-15:  25%, 15 of 60
  • top-16:  23.4%, 15 of 64
  • top-17:  22.1%, 15 of 68
  • top-18:  20.8%, 15 of 72
  • top-19:  21.1%, 16 of 76
Medina's theoretical predictive percentage chance of a given team making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
165.0%
250.0%
350.0%
441.5%
534.4%
628.6%
723.7%
819.7%
916.3%
1013.6%
1111.3%
129.3%
137.8%
146.4%
155.3%
16+ total17.0%

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2018, 10:44:05 AM »
It won't be the Wolverines.
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ELA

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2018, 10:44:53 AM »
Quote from: fezzador on August 09, 2018, 09:38:49 AM
Of teams outside the Top 10, I think Sparty and Stanford have the best chances.
No idea how they calculate it, but ESPN's playoff odds say MSU-OSU is the most important swing game for determining playoff participation.
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rolltidefan

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2018, 10:57:53 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 09, 2018, 10:38:26 AM
A bit of history on this:
In four years of the CFP we have had four teams from outside the preseason AP top-10 make the playoff for an average of one per year but it hasn't been consistently one each year:
  • One in 2017:  #15 UGA
  • One in 2016:  #14 Washington
  • Two in 2015:  #12 Clemson and #19 Oklahoma
  • None in 2014
History of preseason AP rank getting to the playoff:
  • Alabama has made it four out of four years
  • #1 has made it three out of four years
  • #2 has made it two out of four years
  • #3 has made it two out of four years
  • #4 has never made it
  • #5 has made it three out of four years
  • #6 has made it once
  • #7 has made it once
  • #8 has never made it
  • #9 has never made it
  • #10 has never made it
  • #11 has never made it
  • #12 has made it once
  • #13 has never made it
  • #14 has made it once
  • #15 has made it once
  • #16 has never made it
  • #17 has never made it
  • #18 has never made it
  • #19 has made it once
  • #20 and all teams ranked #21 and below have never made it
Percentage of teams making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
  • #1: 75%, 3 of 4
  • top-2:  62.5%, 5 of 8
  • top-3:  58.3%, 7 of 12
  • top-4:  43.8%, 7 of 16
  • top-5:  50%, 10 of 20
  • top-6:  45.8%, 11 of 24
  • top-7:  42.9%, 12 of 28
  • top-8:  37.5%, 12 of 32
  • top-9:  33.3%, 12 of 36
  • top-10:  30%, 12 of 40
  • top-11:  27.3%, 12 of 44
  • top-12:  27.1%, 13 of 48
  • top-13:  25%, 13 of 52
  • top-14:  25%, 14 of 56
  • top-15:  25%, 15 of 60
  • top-16:  23.4%, 15 of 64
  • top-17:  22.1%, 15 of 68
  • top-18:  20.8%, 15 of 72
  • top-19:  21.1%, 16 of 76
Medina's theoretical predictive percentage chance of a given team making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
165.0%
250.0%
350.0%
441.5%
534.4%
628.6%
723.7%
819.7%
916.3%
1013.6%
1111.3%
129.3%
137.8%
146.4%
155.3%
16+ total17.0%


just thought i'd fix that real quick ;)
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2018, 11:00:42 AM »
Quote from: ELA on August 09, 2018, 10:44:53 AM
No idea how they calculate it, but ESPN's playoff odds say MSU-OSU is the most important swing game for determining playoff participation.
Link to ELA's note.
There are six games among the top-4 in the B1G-E.  Of those six, the three involving the Buckeyes are ranked #1 (tOSU@MSU), #2 (tOSU@PSU), and #6 (M@tOSU) in ESPN's ranking of "Highest Impact Games for CFP Race, Per Playoff Predictor".  

Interestingly, per ESPN, the other three of the top-6 most important swing games for determining playoff participation all involve Auburn (@Bama, vsWashington, @UGA).  

Of the six, I would think that Auburn at Georgia would have the least impact because it is a cross-divisional game and therefore less likely to determine CG representation.  The other non-divisional game is an OOC game between Auburn and Washington but I see that as highly likely to have an impact on the CFP race because Washington's performance there could have a huge impact on whether or not the Pac Champion gets in and/or whether or not the SEC gets two teams.    
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2018, 11:01:22 AM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on August 09, 2018, 10:57:53 AM
just thought i'd fix that real quick ;)
LoL, it wasn't about teams, it was about rankings but go ahead and take the opportunity to brag!
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rolltidefan

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2018, 11:05:11 AM »
based on coaches poll, i'll take nd on a flier. if they can beat mich at home in first game, they'll be set up nicely, with only stanford (home) and usc (away) as the major tests, imo. maybe va tech and fsu, but i don't think either are ready to compete like irish might be, though they could play upset.

stanford will be tough, but it's at home, and i don't buy usc being great this year.

and really, even if they lose to mich in g1, they have the schedule and name to make up for it.

i don't think it'll happen, but they'd be my pick.
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rolltidefan

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2018, 11:06:11 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 09, 2018, 11:01:22 AM
LoL, it wasn't about teams, it was about rankings but go ahead and take the opportunity to brag!
hey, it's not called the alabama invitational for nothing. it's not called the alabama invitational, but it maybe should be.
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TyphonInc

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2018, 09:09:19 PM »
Because I like symmetry, we need OSU to make the playoff this year and for Clemson and Alabama to miss it. That would give OSU 3, Clemson 3 and the antichrist 4 appearances.  
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2018, 09:46:32 PM »
West Virginia
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ALA2262

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Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2018, 11:41:59 PM »
Whose Top Ten?
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