Author
Topic: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff
(Read 3993 times)

Cincydawg · « **on:** August 09, 2018, 09:04:39 AM »

I'm going with USC (the real one).

They remind me of Richt-coached UGA teams a bit now, high on talent and prone to losing twice inexplicably. Maybe they get it done this year. They could be 12-1 and very likely make the final four (FF, if they win the CG of course).

Maybe this thread won't get lost in turmoil this year?

ELA · « **Reply #1 on:** August 09, 2018, 09:20:58 AM »

Considering I have them starting 1-2 in my projections, I will not be going with the Trojans.

fezzador · « **Reply #2 on:** August 09, 2018, 09:38:49 AM »

Of teams outside the Top 10, I think Sparty and Stanford have the best chances.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #3 on:** August 09, 2018, 10:38:26 AM »

A bit of history on this:
In four years of the CFP we have had four teams from outside the preseason AP top-10 make the playoff for an average of one per year but it hasn't been consistently one each year:

One in 2017: #15 UGA
One in 2016: #14 Washington
Two in 2015: #12 Clemson and #19 Oklahoma
None in 2014

History of preseason AP rank getting to the playoff:

#1 has made it three out of four years
#2 has made it two out of four years
#3 has made it two out of four years
#4 has never made it
#5 has made it three out of four years
#6 has made it once
#7 has made it once
#8 has never made it
#9 has never made it
#10 has never made it
#11 has never made it
#12 has made it once
#13 has never made it
#14 has made it once
#15 has made it once
#16 has never made it
#17 has never made it
#18 has never made it
#19 has made it once
#20 and all teams ranked #21 and below have never made it

Percentage of teams making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:

#1: 75%, 3 of 4
top-2: 62.5%, 5 of 8
top-3: 58.3%, 7 of 12
top-4: 43.8%, 7 of 16
top-5: 50%, 10 of 20
top-6: 45.8%, 11 of 24
top-7: 42.9%, 12 of 28
top-8: 37.5%, 12 of 32
top-9: 33.3%, 12 of 36
top-10: 30%, 12 of 40
top-11: 27.3%, 12 of 44
top-12: 27.1%, 13 of 48
top-13: 25%, 13 of 52
top-14: 25%, 14 of 56
top-15: 25%, 15 of 60
top-16: 23.4%, 15 of 64
top-17: 22.1%, 15 of 68
top-18: 20.8%, 15 of 72
top-19: 21.1%, 16 of 76

Medina's theoretical predictive percentage chance of a given team making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:

1	65.0%
2	50.0%
3	50.0%
4	41.5%
5	34.4%
6	28.6%
7	23.7%
8	19.7%
9	16.3%
10	13.6%
11	11.3%
12	9.3%
13	7.8%
14	6.4%
15	5.3%
16+ total	17.0%

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #4 on:** August 09, 2018, 10:44:05 AM »

It won't be the Wolverines.

ELA · « **Reply #5 on:** August 09, 2018, 10:44:53 AM »

Quote from: fezzador on August 09, 2018, 09:38:49 AM

Of teams outside the Top 10, I think Sparty and Stanford have the best chances.

No idea how they calculate it, but ESPN's playoff odds say MSU-OSU is the most important swing game for determining playoff participation.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #6 on:** August 09, 2018, 10:57:53 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 09, 2018, 10:38:26 AM

A bit of history on this:
In four years of the CFP we have had four teams from outside the preseason AP top-10 make the playoff for an average of one per year but it hasn't been consistently one each year:
One in 2017: #15 UGA
One in 2016: #14 Washington
Two in 2015: #12 Clemson and #19 Oklahoma
None in 2014
History of preseason AP rank getting to the playoff:
Alabama has made it four out of four years
#1 has made it three out of four years
#2 has made it two out of four years
#3 has made it two out of four years
#4 has never made it
#5 has made it three out of four years
#6 has made it once
#7 has made it once
#8 has never made it
#9 has never made it
#10 has never made it
#11 has never made it
#12 has made it once
#13 has never made it
#14 has made it once
#15 has made it once
#16 has never made it
#17 has never made it
#18 has never made it
#19 has made it once
#20 and all teams ranked #21 and below have never made it
Percentage of teams making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
#1: 75%, 3 of 4
top-2: 62.5%, 5 of 8
top-3: 58.3%, 7 of 12
top-4: 43.8%, 7 of 16
top-5: 50%, 10 of 20
top-6: 45.8%, 11 of 24
top-7: 42.9%, 12 of 28
top-8: 37.5%, 12 of 32
top-9: 33.3%, 12 of 36
top-10: 30%, 12 of 40
top-11: 27.3%, 12 of 44
top-12: 27.1%, 13 of 48
top-13: 25%, 13 of 52
top-14: 25%, 14 of 56
top-15: 25%, 15 of 60
top-16: 23.4%, 15 of 64
top-17: 22.1%, 15 of 68
top-18: 20.8%, 15 of 72
top-19: 21.1%, 16 of 76
Medina's theoretical predictive percentage chance of a given team making the CFP based on preseason AP rank:
1 65.0%
2 50.0%
3 50.0%
4 41.5%
5 34.4%
6 28.6%
7 23.7%
8 19.7%
9 16.3%
10 13.6%
11 11.3%
12 9.3%
13 7.8%
14 6.4%
15 5.3%
16+ total 17.0%

just thought i'd fix that real quick

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** August 09, 2018, 11:00:42 AM »

Quote from: ELA on August 09, 2018, 10:44:53 AM

No idea how they calculate it, but ESPN's playoff odds say MSU-OSU is the most important swing game for determining playoff participation.

Link to ELA's note.
There are six games among the top-4 in the B1G-E. Of those six, the three involving the Buckeyes are ranked #1 (tOSU@MSU), #2 (tOSU@PSU), and #6 (M@tOSU) in ESPN's ranking of "Highest Impact Games for CFP Race, Per Playoff Predictor".

Interestingly, per ESPN, the other three of the top-6 most important swing games for determining playoff participation all involve Auburn (@Bama, vsWashington, @UGA).

Of the six, I would think that Auburn at Georgia would have the least impact because it is a cross-divisional game and therefore less likely to determine CG representation. The other non-divisional game is an OOC game between Auburn and Washington but I see that as highly likely to have an impact on the CFP race because Washington's performance there could have a huge impact on whether or not the Pac Champion gets in and/or whether or not the SEC gets two teams.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 09, 2018, 11:01:22 AM »

Quote from: rolltidefan on August 09, 2018, 10:57:53 AM

just thought i'd fix that real quick

LoL, it wasn't about teams, it was about rankings but go ahead and take the opportunity to brag!

rolltidefan · « **Reply #9 on:** August 09, 2018, 11:05:11 AM »

based on coaches poll, i'll take nd on a flier. if they can beat mich at home in first game, they'll be set up nicely, with only stanford (home) and usc (away) as the major tests, imo. maybe va tech and fsu, but i don't think either are ready to compete like irish might be, though they could play upset.

stanford will be tough, but it's at home, and i don't buy usc being great this year.

and really, even if they lose to mich in g1, they have the schedule and name to make up for it.

i don't think it'll happen, but they'd be my pick.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #10 on:** August 09, 2018, 11:06:11 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 09, 2018, 11:01:22 AM

LoL, it wasn't about teams, it was about rankings but go ahead and take the opportunity to brag!

hey, it's not called the alabama invitational for nothing. it's not called the alabama invitational, but it maybe should be.

TyphonInc · « **Reply #11 on:** August 09, 2018, 09:09:19 PM »

Because I like symmetry, we need OSU to make the playoff this year and for Clemson and Alabama to miss it. That would give OSU 3, Clemson 3 and the antichrist 4 appearances.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #12 on:** August 09, 2018, 09:46:32 PM »

West Virginia

ALA2262 · « **Reply #13 on:** August 09, 2018, 11:41:59 PM »

Whose Top Ten?

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.

Topic: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

Cincydawg

Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

ELA

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

fezzador

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

medinabuckeye1

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

ELA

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

rolltidefan

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

medinabuckeye1

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

medinabuckeye1

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

rolltidefan

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

rolltidefan

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

TyphonInc

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff

ALA2262

Re: Out of the top ten team to make the playoff