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Topic: Other P5 Races headed into week 11

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medinabuckeye1

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Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« on: November 04, 2019, 12:39:57 PM »
ACC-Atlantic:

  • 6-0 Clemson:  The Tigers control their own destiny but the Wake game in two weeks looms large
  • 3-1 Wake:  The Deacons control their own destiny.  If they win out they will do no worse than a tie with Clemson and with a win over Clemson they would win that tie.  
  • 3-2 Louisville:  The Cardinals are technically mathematically alive but they need Clemson to lose both of their remaining ACC games and they need Wake to lose exactly one more ACC game to create a 3-way tie and even then I don't know the ACC's tiebreakers well enough to know if they could win that.  
ACC-Coastal (aka, the most exciting division in the P5):
  • 4-2 Virginia:  The Cavaliers already beat Pitt so they are in control but they lost to Miami and they haven't played VaTech yet so their lead is hardly insurmountable.  
  • 3-2 Pitt:  The Panthers need either somebody to take out UVA.  
  • 2-2 VaTech:  The Hokies' losses were to Dook and BC so neither should be a problem tiebreaker wise.  They still have UVA and Pitt on the schedule so they control their own destiny.  
  • 3-3 North Carolina:  Two of the Tar Heels' three losses were to teams from the other division so that helps but that UVA loss is problematic.  
  • 3-3 Miami:  All three of the Hurricanes' losses were within the division and two of them were to UNC and VaTech so they need a LOT of help.  
  • 2-3 Dook:  All three of the Blue Devils' losses were to divisional teams currently ahead of them in the standings so they need a LOT of help.  
  • 1-4 GaTech:  In most divisions a 1-4 record would mean that you were mathematically or at least practically eliminated but here in the ACC-Coastal they probably still have a shot.  
SEC-East:
  • 4-1 Georgia:  As long as the Bulldogs don't lose to Mizzou this week and don't lose more than once more, they are going to Atlanta.  
  • 4-2 Florida:  The Gators' loss to the Bulldogs means that they would need all kinds of help to get to Atlanta.  
  • 2-2 Mizzou:  With Georgia and Florida still on the schedule the Tigers technically control their own destiny but they just lost back-to-back games to Vandy and Kentucky so I really can't see them now winning back-to-back games with UGA and UF.  
  • 2-3 Tennessee:  The Volunteers already lost to both UGA and UF so they need a lot of help but they are still at least technically in the race.  
  • 3-4 USCe:  The Gamecocks' win over UGA helps but with four losses they would need both the Bulldogs and the Gators to lose the rest of their SEC games and for Mizzou to lose their other two remaining SEC games after beating the Georgia and Florida and even that would only get the Gamecocks into a multi-team tie with UGA, UF, and Mizzou and they already lost to both UF and Mizzou so I don't think even that would do it.  Now that I am running scenarios in my head, I think that USCe is mathematically eliminated.  
  • 2-4 Kentucky and 1-4 Vandy:  Like USCe, the Wildcats and Commodores would need UGA and UF to both lose out just to get into a tie so they aren't going to make it.  
SEC-West:
  • 5-0 Bama:  If the Tide beat LSU, they would have to lose both of their other SEC games (@MissSt, @Aub) to miss the SECCG.  
  • 4-0 LSU:  If the Tigers beat Bama, they would have to lose two of their other three SEC games (@OleMiss, vsArk, vsaTm) to miss the SECCG.  
  • 4-2 Auburn:  The Tigers would need a lot of help.  They would lose a two-way tie with LSU so they need those Tigers to lose two or preferably three times and they need Bama to lose at least once before the Iron Bowl.  
  • 3-2 aTm:  The Aggies already lost to Bama so like Auburn they need a lot of help.  
Divisionless B12:
  • 5-0 Baylor:  The Bears are in so long as they lose less than two games.  If they lose two they still have a pretty good chance.  If they lose three or more they'll need help.  
  • 4-1 Oklahoma:  The Sooners are in if they win out.  If they lose once they still have a pretty good chance.  If they lose two or more they will need a lot of help.  
  • 3-2 Iowa State:  The Cyclones would control their own destiny as winning out would get them in.
  • 3-2 Kansas State:  The Wildcats would really benefit from a Sooner loss.  
  • 3-2 Texas:  The Longhorns need help, but if they win out they will probably make it.  With any more losses they are probably done.  
  • 3-3 Oklahoma State:  The Cowboys are still theoretically in the mix but they need a lot of help.  
  • 2-3 TCU:  Same as OkSU.  
  • 1-4 TxTech:  The Red Raiders have a theoretical mathematical chance but nothing more.  
  • 1-4 WVU:  Same as TxTech.  
  • 1-5 Kansas:  I think that the Jayhawks are mathematically eliminated because everybody can't go 4-5.  
P12-North:
  • 6-0 Oregon:  The Ducks are firmly in control and have earned at least one mulligan.  They can lose any remaining game or any two remaining games not including OrSU and they will go to the P12CG.  
  • 3-2 Oregon State:  The Beavers need Oregon to lose a game prior to their game with the Ducks.  
  • 3-3 Stanford:  In theory the Cardinal could end up in a three-way tie with Oregon and Oregon State and they might be able to win that tie, I don't know.  
P12-South:
  • 5-1 Utah:  The Utes are in control but they would lose a 2-loss tie with either of the SoCal schools.  
  • 4-2 UCLA:  The Bruins control their own destiny, winning out would get them to the P12CG.  
  • 4-2 USC:  Both of the Trojans' losses were non-divisional so that helps.  Still, they need somebody to knock off Utah.  
  • 2-3 Arizona State:  The Sun Devils need a LOT of help because they already lost to both Utah and UCLA.  
  • 2-4 Arizona:  The Wildcats would need a lot of help (Utah losing out, UCLA losing twice, USC losing three times) but in theory they could still win it.  


Cincydawg

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 03:10:05 PM »
In practical terms, the SEC is pretty simple (probably), LSU-Bama winner and UGA (unless of course UGA lays two eggs).  UGA has Mizzou this weekend at home and A&M L42 cee3dc ater at home.  If they can't win those two, fine and dandy.

Cincydawg

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 03:15:31 PM »
Medina, thanks again for your detailed analyses that includes all the improbables.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 03:28:53 PM »
What would be the most improbable CCG match up that can still be achieved for each P5 Conference?
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Cincydawg

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2019, 03:34:58 PM »
A&M and Vandy may be possible still.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2019, 04:14:21 PM »
What would be the most improbable CCG match up that can still be achieved for each P5 Conference?
Next week I might be willing to answer this question.  

For now there are still a pretty substantial number of mathematically possible results so just pick one.  

FearlessF

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2019, 04:19:50 PM »
What would be the most improbable CCG match up that can still be achieved for each P5 Conference?
That one might include Michigan!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2019, 04:28:30 PM »
That one might include Michigan!
I covered that last week and it is pretty improbable.  Even if Michigan wins out, they still need one of two things to get to the B1GCG:
  • Penn State to lose three games and Ohio State to lose at least one prior to THE GAME, or
  • Ohio State to lose to either UMD or RU but beat PSU and PSU to also lose to another divisional opponent (either IU or RU).  

In scenario #1 Penn State is out and Michigan ties with Ohio State and wins the tie based on H2H.  

In scenario #2 the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Nittany Lions all tie at 7-1 and are all 1-1 H2H2H so it would go to the second tiebreaker, divisional record.  In this scenario Michigan and Ohio State would both be 5-1 while Penn State would be 4-2.  That would eliminate PSU then tOSU and M would revert to their H2H where Michigan would win.  


FearlessF

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Re: Other P5 Races headed into week 11
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2019, 06:50:44 PM »
that's what Brutus is getting at here

Michigan's chance being "pretty" improbable
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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