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Topic: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend

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medinabuckeye1

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Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« on: November 23, 2020, 12:37:06 PM »
ACC:
The ACC is playing a divisionless schedule with Notre Dame included so the top two teams will meet in the CG.  There was no change at the top this week because 7-0 Notre Dame and 6-2 UNC had scheduled week off while 6-1 Clemson's and 6-1 Miami's games against FSU and GaTech respectively were postponed and 5-3 NCST played Liberty OOC.   Here is the ACC's 2020 tiebreaking procedure
the ACC's 2020 tiebreaking procedure.  

  • 7-0 Notre Dame:  The Irish are a near lock.  They are mathematically in no matter what even with a loss (remaining games @UNC, v CUSE, @ Wake) and they'd have a decent shot even if they lost two of those three.  
  • 6-1 Clemson:  The Tigers control their own destiny because they beat the Hurricanes but if they lose a game that opens to door for Miami.  
  • 6-1 Miami:  The Hurricanes need somebody to take out Clemson or two somebodies to take out Notre Dame.  
  • 6-2 UNC:  The Tar Heels have ND (this weekend) and Miami (12/12) on the schedule.  If they win out that would take out Miami and get them within a game of both Clemson and ND but they'd still need somebody else to beat either ND or Clemson to get them in.  
The other 11 teams each have at least three losses so while there may be some crazy mathematical possibility for them, as a practical matter they are eliminated.  

B12:
Like the B1G, the B12 had two big showdowns this weekend but theirs were not nearly as suspenseful.  Oklahoma and Iowa State blew out OkSU and KSU respectively to effectively make this a four team race for two spots.  Iowa State is in the driver's seat because they only have one loss.  After them, Oklahoma is in the drivers seat because they are 2-1 against the others (beat Tx and OkSU, lost to ISU).  OkSU is in the most trouble because they are 1-2 (beat ISU, lost to Tx and OU).  

Texas and Iowa State play this weekend (at Texas).  A Cyclone win pretty much eliminates the Longhorns but a Longhorn win potentially puts all four contenders in a loss-column tie.  In that case OU and TX would have the inside track due to their 2-1 H2H records while ISU and OkSU would be on the outside looking in with their 1-2 H2H records.  


PAC12:
Still too early to say much.  

SEC:
Last week I noted that the Tide and Gators were near locks.  They both won so nothing changed.  
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2020, 05:50:52 PM »
Update for the B12 race:

With ISU's win over Texas the Longhorns aren't mathematically eliminated but they need all kinds of help.  

So here is the set up now:

  • 7-1 ISU:  vs WVU next weekend.  In for sure with a win.  Likely in with a loss as well, see below.  
  • 5-2 OU:  vs Baylor, @WVU.  In for sure if they win out.  Probably out with a loss.  
  • 4-2 OkSU:  vs TxTech, @TCU, @Baylor.  In if they win out and OU loses a game.  
  • 4-3 Tx, WVU, KSU:  They can't catch ISU and would need OU and OkSU to lose a game each to get into a tie with them but they'd still need help to win the tie.  

The B12 tiebreaker for a two-team tie is simply H2H.  For a multiple team tie it is:
  • H2H...2H among the tied teams.  
  • Record against the next best team in the league, then the next, etc.  
  • Scoring differential among the tied teams.  
  • Random Draw conducted at the Conference Office.  

If ISU loses their last game (vWVU) while OU (vs Baylor, @WVU) and OkSU (vsTxTech, @TCU, @Baylor) win out then there would be a three-way tie for the two spots in the CG between ISU, OU, and OkSU.  

Tiebreaker #1, H2H2H:
  • 1-1 ISU beat OU, lost to OkSU
  • 1-1 OU beat OkSU, lost to ISU
  • 1-1 OkSU beat ISU, lost to OU

Tiebreaker #2, record against the next best team in the division:
  • ISU's other loss would be to WVU (currently 4-3 but improves to 5-3 if they beat ISU)
  • OkSU's other loss is to TX (currently 4-3)
  • OU's other loss is to KSU (currently 4-3)

If ISU, OkSU, and OU all end up tied it would mean that WVU beat ISU and lost to OU to finish 5-4.  

Thus, the loser of this tie would be whichever team lost to the team that ended up with the worst record:
  • ISU's would be 5-4 WVU.  
  • OkSU's would be Texas (currently 4-3 with @KSU, @KU to go).
  • OU's would be KSU (currently 4-3 with @Baylor, vsTX to go).  


It would probably come down to the Texas @ KSU game with OkSU needing a Longhorn win and OU needing a Wildcat win and ISU in either way.  

It is possible, however, that the Tx/KSU winner could lose their other game while the Tx/KSU loser wins their other game.  This is very unlikely because both Kansas and Baylor are horrible so the Tx/KSU winner should win their other game.  

If ISU/OkSU/OU were all tied for first/second/third at 7-2 while WVU/TX/KSU were all tied at 5-4 then we would move to:

Tiebreaker #3, scoring differential among the tied teams:
  • 21 OU:  beat OkSU by 28, lost to ISU by 7
  • 4 ISU:  beat OU by 7, lost to OkSU by 3
  • -25 OkSU:  beat ISU by 3, lost to OU by 28

In that case OU would get the #1 seed, ISU would get the #2 seed, and OkSU would be out.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2020, 06:07:01 PM »
How would you rank the potential matchups by probability?
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utee94

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2020, 06:10:00 PM »
I think OU wins out and wins the B12.  They've improved quite a bit from their early-season woes.  I think they beat ISU in a rematch.

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2020, 06:43:04 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on November 27, 2020, 06:10:00 PM
I think OU wins out and wins the B12.  They've improved quite a bit from their early-season woes.  I think they beat ISU in a rematch.
I agree with @utee94 .  

Relevant teams/games and most likely outcomes:
  • 7-1 ISU:  Beats WVU at home, finishes 8-1.  
  • 5-2 OU:  Beats Baylor at home and WVU in Morgantown, finishes 7-2.  
  • 4-2 OkSU:  Beats txTech at home and TCU in Ft. Worth and Baylor in Waco, finishes 7-2.  
  • 4-3 Texas:  Beats KSU in Manhattan and Kansas in Lawerence, finishes 6-3. 
  • 4-3 KSU:  Beats Baylor in Waco and loses to TX at home, finishes 5-4
  • 4-3 WVU:   Loses to ISU in Ames and to OU at home, finishes 4-5.  

OU wins the tie with OkSU based on H2H and, like Utee, I think they have improved a lot since they lost to ISU by a TD in Ames.  They win.  

Side note, has ISU mathematically clinched a spot in the CG:
Their worst case scenario would be to finish 7-2 which only OU and OkSU can match.  In the event of a three-way tie where the three teams are 1-1 against each other the next tiebreaker is record against the next best team in the league:
  • WVU would be 5-4 (see above, for this to happen they have to beat ISU and lose to OU).  
  • The Texas/KSU winner would be either 5-4 or 6-3
  • The Texas/KSU loser would be either 5-4 or 4-5
If Texas/KSU/WVU all end up 5-4 then OkSU is out while OU and ISU are in (see above, scoring differential).  

The B12 tiebreaker rules state that when comparing to two tied teams you break that tie based on H2H first, THEN make the comparison.  
  • If Texas finished 6-3 that would mean that OU and ISU would get in because they beat Texas while OkSU lost to the Longhorns.  
  • If KSU finished 6-3 that would mean that ISU and OkSU would be in because they beat KSU while OU lost to the Wildcats.  
  • If Texas and WVU finished 5-4 while KSU finished 4-5 then the Tx/WVU tie would be broken based on H2H.  Texas beat WVU so OU and ISU are and and OkSU is out.  
  • If KSU and WVU finished 5-4 while Texas finished 4-5 then the KSU/WVU tie would be broken based on H2H.  WVU beat KSU so OkSU and OU would be in based on their wins over WVU while ISU would be out based on their loss to WVU.  
Thus, ISU has NOT mathematically clinched because they would miss the CG if all of the following happened:
  • They lose to WVU, and
  • OU beats Baylor, and
  • OU beats WVU, and
  • OkSU beats TCU, and
  • OkSU beats Baylor, and
  • KSU beats Texas, and
  • KSU loses to Baylor, and
  • Texas loses to Kansas

Ie, ISU is, for all practical purposes, in.  However, there is a mathematical possibility that they could miss the CG.  

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utee94

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2020, 06:52:01 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2020, 06:43:04 PM
I agree with @utee94 . 

Relevant teams/games and most likely outcomes:
  • 7-1 ISU:  Beats WVU at home, finishes 8-1. 
  • 5-2 OU:  Beats Baylor at home and WVU in Morgantown, finishes 7-2. 
  • 4-2 OkSU:  Beats txTech at home and TCU in Ft. Worth and Baylor in Waco, finishes 7-2. 
  • 4-3 Texas:  Beats KSU in Manhattan and Kansas in Lawerence, finishes 6-3.
  • 4-3 KSU:  Beats Baylor in Waco and loses to TX at home, finishes 5-4
  • 4-3 WVU:  Loses to ISU in Ames and to OU at home, finishes 4-5. 

OU wins the tie with OkSU based on H2H and, like Utee, I think they have improved a lot since they lost to ISU by a TD in Ames.  They win. 

Side note, has ISU mathematically clinched a spot in the CG:
Their worst case scenario would be to finish 7-2 which only OU and OkSU can match.  In the event of a three-way tie where the three teams are 1-1 against each other the next tiebreaker is record against the next best team in the league:
  • WVU would be 5-4 (see above, for this to happen they have to beat ISU and lose to OU). 
  • The Texas/KSU winner would be either 5-4 or 6-3
  • The Texas/KSU loser would be either 5-4 or 4-5
If Texas/KSU/WVU all end up 5-4 then OkSU is out while OU and ISU are in (see above, scoring differential). 

The B12 tiebreaker rules state that when comparing to two tied teams you break that tie based on H2H first, THEN make the comparison. 

  • If Texas finished 6-3 that would mean that OU and ISU would get in because they beat Texas while OkSU lost to the Longhorns. 
  • If KSU finished 6-3 that would mean that ISU and OkSU would be in because they beat KSU while OU lost to the Wildcats. 
  • If Texas and WVU finished 5-4 while KSU finished 4-5 then the Tx/WVU tie would be broken based on H2H.  Texas beat WVU so OU and ISU are and and OkSU is out. 
  • If KSU and WVU finished 5-4 while Texas finished 4-5 then the KSU/WVU tie would be broken based on H2H.  WVU beat KSU so OkSU and OU would be in based on their wins over WVU while ISU would be out based on their loss to WVU. 
Thus, ISU has NOT mathematically clinched because they would miss the CG if all of the following happened:

  • They lose to WVU, and
  • OU beats Baylor, and
  • OU beats WVU, and
  • OkSU beats TCU, and
  • OkSU beats Baylor, and
  • KSU beats Texas, and
  • KSU loses to Baylor, and
  • Texas loses to Kansas

Ie, ISU is, for all practical purposes, in.  However, there is a mathematical possibility that they could miss the CG. 



Wow, thorough analysis, well done!

I suppose that's why ESPN's predictor has ISU at 99% for the B12 CCG, but not 100%.

Also, let's think about how stupid this is going to get-- if everything goes as expected ISU will have won the B12 outright by having the best record in a full roundrobin.  And yet they'll be forced to play a superfluous rematch with an OU team they already beat, and since I expect they will lose that game, they will forfeit their rightful B12 championship, due to a stupid, superfluous, completely unnecessary CCG.

That's really going to suck for them.


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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2020, 06:55:07 PM »
It sucks every year for the top team in the Big XII.  And to think:  THEY PLANNED IT THIS WAY!
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2020, 07:46:03 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2020, 06:43:04 PM

  • They lose to WVU, and
  • OU beats Baylor, and
  • OU beats WVU, and
  • OkSU beats TCU, and
  • OkSU beats Baylor, and
  • KSU beats Texas, and
  • KSU loses to Baylor, and
  • Texas loses to Kansas


It didn't really seem all that far fetched until number 8. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2020, 08:10:25 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 27, 2020, 07:46:03 PM
It didn't really seem all that far fetched until number 8.
Number eight is very unlikely but it might be more likely than all seven of the others. The key here is the "all". None of them are all that unlikely individually but all of them together are very unlikely 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2020, 08:14:24 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on November 27, 2020, 06:52:01 PM
Wow, thorough analysis, well done!

I suppose that's why ESPN's predictor has ISU at 99% for the B12 CCG, but not 100%.

Also, let's think about how stupid this is going to get-- if everything goes as expected ISU will have won the B12 outright by having the best record in a full roundrobin.  And yet they'll be forced to play a superfluous rematch with an OU team they already beat, and since I expect they will lose that game, they will forfeit their rightful B12 championship, due to a stupid, superfluous, completely unnecessary CCG.

That's really going to suck for them.
Thank you.


That does suck about CG'S. It really sucks in that hypothetical where they are the outright champ AND already beat their CG opponent but after the 2014 fiasco I think they felt that they needed the SoS boost for their Champion. 
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utee94

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2020, 11:41:10 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on November 27, 2020, 07:46:03 PM
It didn't really seem all that far fetched until number 8.
Last year Texas needed a walkoff field goal to beat Kansas.  I don't think Texas losing to Kansas is all that far-fetched.  Unfortunately.
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utee94

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Re: Other P5 Championship races heading into Thanksgiving weekend
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2020, 11:44:34 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 27, 2020, 08:14:24 PM
Thank you.


That does suck about CG'S. It really sucks in that hypothetical where they are the outright champ AND already beat their CG opponent but after the 2014 fiasco I think they felt that they needed the SoS boost for their Champion.
It was a knee-jerk reaction, an unnecessary solution in search of a problem that didn't exist.  The CFP Selection Committee just throwing out their nonsensical bullshit about how they wanted to see a "13th data point" because they didn't want to deal with uncomfortable questions, but then in the case of Notre Dame, not wanting or needing a "13th data point" at all.  Shocking, right?
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