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Topic: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023

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medinabuckeye1

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Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« on: November 13, 2023, 11:33:09 AM »
ACC:
Florida State has not only clinched but they are done with ACC play at 8-0.  Their two games prior to the ACCCG are OOC games against a creampuff then Florida.  

Louisville is their probable opponent.  They are 6-1 with only one ACC game remaining (Miami) then an OOC game against Kentucky the week before the ACCCG.  If Louisville wins at Miami they are in with no need to resort to tiebreakers.  However, if they lose then one or more of the three two-loss teams could finish tied with them.  The three two-loss teams are UNC, NCST, and VaTech.  Louisville already beat NCST and VaTech but they don't play UNC.  From a quick look at the ACC tiebreakers this would go to Louisville if they tied either of the teams they already defeated but if not it would depend on winning percentage among common opponents and I'm not going to bother with that until next week.  At that point we'll know if it even could be relevant.  

SEC:
Georgia's win over Ole Miss locked up the SECCG for UGA (and Bama) and Bama's win locked up their spot so the SECCG is set, it will be UGA/Bama.  Nice to see some new faces in the SECCG.  

B12:
After beating Oklahoma the Cowboys of OkSU looked to be on top of the world.  Then they played UCF and got absolutely smoked.  Texas is still in control at 6-1 but they haven't clinched yet and we have a four-way tie for second between the two Oklahoma schools, ISU, and KSU all at 5-2.  If that isn't quite complicated enough for you, there are another three teams (WVU, TXTech, KU) all at 4-3 that are still at least mathematically in the race.  Maybe I can pare this down to possible scenarios after next weekend's games.  We might need to call in @utee94 to help clear it all up.  

P12:
Washington (7-0) and Oregon (6-1) are in control but the team to watch is Oregon State.  The Beavers host the Huskies this weekend then visit the Ducks next weekend.  If they were to win both they would at least tie for a spot in the final P12CG and they would win every tie except one, a tie with Arizona.  

Washington clinches a spot with a win in either of their two remaining games (@OrSU, vsWSU).  

Oregon would clinch with a win (@ASU) and losses by OrSU (vsUW) and Zona (vsUtah).  

It is not all that unlikely that both Washington and Oregon will clinch this weekend.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2023, 11:38:57 AM »
Actually, the Vol loss at Mizzou secured the East for UGA before the Ole Miss game.

UGA and Bama have only played 3 times in the SEC CG, by my count.

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utee94

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2023, 11:39:28 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 13, 2023, 11:33:09 AM


B12:
After beating Oklahoma the Cowboys of OkSU looked to be on top of the world.  Then they played UCF and got absolutely smoked.  Texas is still in control at 6-1 but they haven't clinched yet and we have a four-way tie for second between the two Oklahoma schools, ISU, and KSU all at 5-2.  If that isn't quite complicated enough for you, there are another three teams (WVU, TXTech, KU) all at 4-3 that are still at least mathematically in the race.  Maybe I can pare this down to possible scenarios after next weekend's games.  We might need to call in @utee94 to help clear it all up. 


Ha!  It's a huge cluster, no doubt.

I'll let you know for sure in 2 weeks... ;)
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rolltidefan

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2023, 12:14:36 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 13, 2023, 11:33:09 AM
ACC:
Florida State has not only clinched but they are done with ACC play at 8-0.  Their two games prior to the ACCCG are OOC games against a couple of creampuffs then Florida. 

Louisville is their probable opponent.  They are 6-1 with only one ACC game remaining (Miami) then an OOC game against Kentucky the week before the ACCCG.  If Louisville wins at Miami they are in with no need to resort to tiebreakers.  However, if they lose then one or more of the three two-loss teams could finish tied with them.  The three two-loss teams are UNC, NCST, and VaTech.  Louisville already beat NCST and VaTech but they don't play UNC.  From a quick look at the ACC tiebreakers this would go to Louisville if they tied either of the teams they already defeated but if not it would depend on winning percentage among common opponents and I'm not going to bother with that until next week.  At that point we'll know if it even could be relevant. 

SEC:
Georgia's win over Ole Miss locked up the SECCG for UGA (and Bama) and Bama's win locked up their spot so the SECCG is set, it will be UGA/Bama.  Nice to see some new faces in the SECCG.  fwiw, bama won the west title before uga could help out. we don't need no stinkin' help... unless someone has ideas on how to beat uga.

B12:
After beating Oklahoma the Cowboys of OkSU looked to be on top of the world.  Then they played UCF and got absolutely smoked.  Texas is still in control at 6-1 but they haven't clinched yet and we have a four-way tie for second between the two Oklahoma schools, ISU, and KSU all at 5-2.  If that isn't quite complicated enough for you, there are another three teams (WVU, TXTech, KU) all at 4-3 that are still at least mathematically in the race.  Maybe I can pare this down to possible scenarios after next weekend's games.  We might need to call in @utee94 to help clear it all up.  did not realize ucf was a conf game this year. lol what a terrible result made so much worse.

P12:
Washington (7-0) and Oregon (6-1) are in control but the team to watch is Oregon State.  The Beavers host the Huskies this weekend then visit the Ducks next weekend.  If they were to win both they would at least tie for a spot in the final P12CG and they would win every tie except one, a tie with Arizona. 

Washington clinches a spot with a win in either of their two remaining games (@OrSU, vsWSU). 

Oregon would clinch with a win (@ASU) and losses by OrSU (vsUW) and Zona (vsUtah). 

It is not all that unlikely that both Washington and Oregon will clinch this weekend. 

it's hilarious to me the p12 "final season" they might be the most entertaining conference.
good stuff.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2023, 12:52:26 PM »
Quote from: rolltidefan on November 13, 2023, 12:14:36 PM
good stuff.
Thanks.

I left that creampuff/UF thing out there just to see who would take a swing at it.

Agree on P12.

As I see it, Bama and tOSU are in remarkably similar situations:
  • Up through 2020 they had been easily the most dominant teams in their respective leagues for the CFP era.
  • They were surpassed the past two seasons.
  • Both looked shaky to start this season.
  • Both find themselves in control of their CFP destiny with just a few games left.
  • I wouldn't pick either to win their league at this point but both have shown enough potential that a path exists and it wouldn't be altogether shocking for either or both to get there.

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2023, 09:39:20 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on November 13, 2023, 12:52:26 PM
Thanks.

I left that creampuff/UF thing out there just to see who would take a swing at it.


Florida is the cream to Northern Alabama's puff? 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2023, 10:24:07 AM »
https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/football/big-12-conference-offers-addendum-to-clarify-murky-tiebreaker-rule

Apparently the B12 felt the need to clarify/ammend their tiebreaker procedure. 

Previously, in the event of a multi-team tie, it appeared that H2H was controlling ONLY if each tied team had played all of the others.

Now if any team defeated each of the others, that team goes.

If not, they go to the next step.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Other P5 CG races heading into the last two weekends of 2023
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2023, 11:09:02 AM »
https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/11/16/four-week-12-games-that-will-have-a-profound-impact-on-the-big-12-race/

If you are following the wild-and-wacky B12CG race, this article breaks it down nicely.
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