I know we don't normally start game threads until the week of but I'm starting this one early for two reasons:
- Both teams are off this week so this is the next game for both of them.
- I think that this game is enormously important both to the two teams involved and to the overall B1GCG race.
USC has a questionable (Lincoln Riley) defense but one of the best offenses in the league. I'm fairly certain that Michigan is the better team and if this game was going to be played in Ann Arbor I wouldn't give the Trojans much of a chance but . . .
West Coast road trips are hard and USC is a legit opponent (defensive issues notwithstanding). Thus, I see this as a game that could realistically go either way and it matters because . . .
For Michigan:
Over the offseason the Wolverines apparently signed up for the Hoosier treatment because their league schedule this year is Charmin soft. There is no Oregon, no Penn State, and no Indiana. Furthermore, this game and possibly at MSU in late October and possibly at Maryland in late November are the only road games against even middling B1G teams. There is no trip to Kinnick, the Wolverines already won in Lincoln, and they don't travel to Washington, Minnesota, or Wisconsin.
If the Wolverines win this one then they'd only have to win games in which they'll be heavily favored to end up 8-1 in conference and even if they suffer an upset along the way they'd still likely enter the final weekend in the B1GCG race with a home game against the Buckeyes as their last chance to get in.
There is also a playoff issue for the Wolverines. The CFP committee isn't blind to SoS. If Michigan loses this, they'll pretty much have to upset the Buckeyes to have any realistic shot at a playoff berth because 9-3 on this schedule isn't getting them in. If they win this, they *might* get to play the Buckeyes with "house money" knowing that a CFP berth is already assured.
For Southern California:
The Trojans's schedule is somewhat similar to the Wolverines. They have only one of the league's top teams (Oregon for USC), one tough OOC road game (ND for USC), and a pretty soft league slate overall.
The Illinois loss looms large for the Trojans because they aren't likely to win in South Bend (10/18) or at Autzen (11/22) which effectively makes this game against Michigan a must-win because the Trojans won't even be in the CFP conversation at 8-4 with losses to Illinois, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon. They could *MAYBE* get there at 9-3 with a win in this game but even that would require a relatively soft bubble.
The point is that if they don't win this game they can't make the CFP without multiple extremely unlikely upsets.
