The big thing that stands out to me here is VT's defense was pretty bad. 54th in the country. Despite being just 1 year removed from an elite season, this just isn't the 2000 VT team.
And if you wanted to say 'maybe their special teams would be the difference,' well the Gators under UM blocked a lot of kicks, too and even though Andre Davis had a monster punt returning year, these 09 Gators only allowed 5 punts to be returned at all. 5 returns in 14 games.
The overall team talent goes Florida's way. Tebow showed what he could do vs a lesser pass D (their run D was actually good) vs Cincinnati (482 yds).
I don't think the line on this on would be close.