B1GCG race

[medinabuckeye1]

I need some help with tiebreakers here please.  I can't find them on the league's website.  I found this yahoo sports article from September which has a link to them but when you click the link you get a "404 page no longer exists" message.  

According to the Yahoo Sports Article (link above) the tiebreakers are:

• H2H.  
• Record against common opponents.  
• Record against the best common opponent, then next best, etc.  
• Cumulative conference winning percentage of conference opponents, ie conference SoS.  
• SportSource Analytics rating.  
• Random draw.  

Mathematically I *think* that every team other than Michigan State (0-5) is still technically in the race but as a practical matter, for the time being I am going to ignore all teams with more than one loss because I think it is very likely that at least two out of UCLA, tOSU, IU, NU, MN, and UW will finish 8-1 or better.  So here they are:

5-0 UCLA is in first place and has a fairly favorable remaining schedule of @MN, vsIL, @M, vsUSC.  They control their own destiny as winning out gets them to 9-0.  If they do lose a game it gets dicey because their SoS (4th tiebreaker) doesn't look good.  UCLA against the other undefeated and 1-loss teams:

• 4-0 tOSU, dnp
• 4-1 IU, dnp
• 3-1 NU, dnp
• 3-1 MN, 11/7 A
• 3-1 UW, W

4-0 Ohio State is in second place but has a trickier remaining schedule and will be breaking in a brand new QB so until we see how that goes they are a wildcard.  The Buckeyes remaining games are @USC, vsUO, vsNU, @UNL, vsM.  Ohio State against the other undefeated and 1-loss teams:

• 5-0 UCLA, dnp
• 4-1 IU, W
• 3-1 NU, 11/14 H
• 3-1 MN, dnp
• 3-1 UW, dnp

4-1 Indiana is in third place but they need help.  They get a shot at MN this weekend but they just have to wait and hope that Ohio State and or UCLA start losing.  Indiana against the other 1-loss and better teams:

• 5-0 UCLA, dnp
• 4-0 tOSU, L
• 3-1 NU, W
• 3-1 MN, 10/31 H
• 3-1 UW, dnp

3-1 Northwestern is one of three teams tied for 4th place.  They can play their way into at least a tie for one of the spots in Indianapolis but the tie would be decided by factors outside of their control so they need some help.  Northwestern against the 1-loss and better teams:

• 5-0 UCLA, dnp
• 4-0 tOSU, 11/14 A
• 4-1 IU, L
• 3-1 MN, 11/21 A
• 3-1 UW, dnp

3-1 Minnesota is another of three teams tied for 4th place.  I *THINK* they control their own destiny because they have shots at UCLA, IU, NU, and UW so if they won out that would put them into no worse than a tie with UCLA so I *THINK* they'd be in based on H2H.  Seeing that Minnesota plays nearly all of the 1-loss and better teams their SoS will be very strong if it comes down to that.  Minnesota against the other 1-loss and better teams:

• 5-0 UCLA, 11/7 H
• 4-0 tOSU, dnp
• 4-1 IU, 10/31 A
• 3-1 NU, 11/21 H
• 3-1 UW, 11/27, A

3-1 Wisconsin is the last of the three teams tied for 4th place.  They appear to need a lot of help because they would lose a tie with UCLA and they trail them and they also trail tOSU and don't play them.  They get a shot at MN but not NU and it looks like their SoS (4th tiebreaker) isn't very strong.  Wisconsin against the other 1-loss and better teams:

• 5-0 UCLA, L
• 4-0 tOSU, dnp
• 4-1 IU, dnp
• 3-1 NU, dnp
• 3-1 MN, 11/27 H

The key games down the stretch are the ones between these teams so, Halloween weekend:

• 3-1 Minnesota at 4-1 Indiana at 3:30 on CBS.  This game is getting the GameDay treatment and I think most of us probably think that is sill because we think IU is just going to roll.  The Hoosiers are favored by 20.5 but this game is probably a B1GCG elimination game and the winner is in the CFP race but the loser is borderline there.  

November 6/7:

• 5-0 UCLA at 3-1 Minnesota.  IF (and that is a big 'if') the Gophers knock off Indiana in Bloomington, then this becomes the game of the week in the B1G and possibly nationally.  

November 13/14:

• 3-1 Northwestern at 4-0 Ohio State.  Depending on how these two teams do the next two weeks this could be a humongous game between two contenders or a forgettable game between two also-rans.  

November 20/21:

• 3-1 Northwestern at 3-1 Minnesota.  Depending on how these two teams do the next three weeks this could be a humongous game between two contenders or a forgettable game between two also-rans.  

November 27/28:

• 3-1 Minnesota at 3-1 Wisconsin.  Same as the last two weekends' games.  

There are five games among the remaining plausible contenders but four of them involve Minnesota so if the Gophers get dropped this weekend in Bloomington then the only one left is NU@tOSU in mid-November.  

[ManHawk]

If the Big Ten still had old divisions

EAST
Ohio St 4-0
Ind 4-1
Mich 1-3
Rut 1-3
MD 0-4
Penn St 0-4
Mich St 0-5
Overall 10-20

WEST
Minn 3-1
NW 3-1
Wisc 3-1
ILL 2-2
Iowa 2-2
Neb 2-2
Pur 2-2
Overall 17-11

PAC
UCLA 5-0
USC 3-2
Ore 2-2
Wash 1-3
Overall 11-7

[ManHawk]

I need some help with tiebreakers here please.  I can't find them on the league's website.  I found this yahoo sports article from September which has a link to them but when you click the link you get a "404 page no longer exists" message. 

According to the Yahoo Sports Article (link above) the tiebreakers are:

• H2H. 
• Record against common opponents. 
• Record against the best common opponent, then next best, etc. 
• Cumulative conference winning percentage of conference opponents, ie conference SoS. 
• SportSource Analytics rating. 
• Random draw. 

Nice summary Medina.

I think the consensus on this board is that if you cant figure out the tiebreaker rules,  then probably none of us are going to figure it out.  But for the fun of it, some of us will try anyway,  but I think I will wait a couple weeks before I attempt it.  

This whole process could get more interesting in 2027 when the Big Ten gets rid of its CCG.  I guess in some sense it may not matter as much because the Big Ten will probably go back to having co-champions and all the co-champions will likely make it into a 24-team CFP. 

But it might be fun to speculate, for example who would win the tiebreaker if both UCLA and Ohio St finish undefeated in the conference and there was no CCG this year.

[medinabuckeye1]

Nice summary Medina.

Thank you.  

But it might be fun to speculate, for example who would win the tiebreaker if both UCLA and Ohio St finish undefeated in the conference and there was no CCG this year.

As I understand it, this one is pretty easy.  They don't play so there is no H2H and if they are both undefeated then their records against all and each individual common opponents also will not resolve it so it would come down to SoS, specifically "cumulative conference record of conference opponents".  Ohio State and UCLA have the following common opponents:

• 0-4 Maryland
• 2-2 Oregon
• 2-2 Illinois
• 1-3 Michigan
• 3-2 USC

So that leaves these that would decide it:
UCLA:

• 2-2 Purdue
• 3-1 Wisconsin 
• 0-5 Michigan State
• 3-1 Minnesota

tOSU:

• 2-2 Iowa
• 4-1 Indiana
• 3-1 Northwestern
• 2-2 Nebraska

The four B1G teams that UCLA plays and Ohio State does NOT play are currently a cumulative 8-9 while the four B1G teams that tOSU plays and UCLA does NOT play are currently a cumulative 11-6 so Ohio State is up by three games but that is hardly clinched, there is a lot of football to be played.  If that plays out this year it will only determine which school gets to wear home jerseys in Indianapolis.