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Topic: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?

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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2018, 10:49:39 AM »
UCF didn't hide their speed

if Auburn was stunned, that was their fault
Yes, it is.  I don't think speed shows up well on tape in many cases.  I think Auburn players may have thought "Yeah, well, we're fast too and more physical.".  I didn't mean to make an excuse but to offer an explanation.  Auburn was a strange team this season.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2018, 10:51:50 AM »
I think the "let down" excuse is ponied out any time there is a significant upset in a bowl game.  "Team X lost because they were disappointed and didn't care.".

It's a facile excuse.  It is intended to mean "They really were a lot better but apathetic."

It could be true on occasion with respect to game preparation, but that still is their fault.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2018, 11:14:32 AM »
Of course it's their fault, and the coach's fault.  But it happens X% of the time.  Why is this such a debate?!?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #45 on: January 15, 2018, 11:20:41 AM »
Out of those 19, I've considered 9 letdowns, based on bowl opponent, margin of win/loss, and favorite/underdog.  So while it's not a certainty, these teams were most often the favorite and only went 10-9, which is probably worse than one would expect.  I'm confident that more-talented teams lose games they shouldn't when it's directly following the elimination of their highest goals late in the season.    
Well put together, OAM. I would agree that 10-9 in those games is probably a little lower than "expected", so the letdown theory at least passes the eye test. 
Thanks. 

Hawkinole

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #46 on: January 15, 2018, 03:14:27 PM »
I don't see regular season data points as being more important in determining relative strength of football conferences, than bowl games. Is there some statistical analysis claiming bowl results are less reliable than regular season results, or that there are more upsets in bowl games?

You can't readily compare P-5 conferences based on the regular season as there are few data points. Here is the Big Ten nonconference schedule 2018-20:

 201820192020
    
IllinoisBall StateKent StateAkron
W. KentuckyW. Illinois@Uconn
@ USFUSFE. Michigan
Indiana@ Virginia@ Florida Int'l@Ball St (Indy)
Florida Int'lVirginiaW. Kentucky
GA SouthernBall StateUconn
IowaWyomingN. IllinoisMiami (OH)
@ Iowa StateIowa State@ Iowa State
North TexasNorthern IowaMiddle Tenn.
Maryland@ TexasTexas (FedEx)Bowling Green
Towson@Bowling Green@Temple
UCFTempleSyracuse
MichiganFlorida (Dallas)@Notre DameM. Tennessee
CincinnatiW. MichiganArmy
Air ForceSMUNotre Dame
Michigan StateBowling GreenUtah StateTulsa
W. Michigan@Arizona StW. Michigan
Notre DameC. MichiganArizona State
MinnesotaBuffaloNew Mexico StSouth Dakota St
@Oregon StateFresno State@Fresno State
M. TennesseeMiami (OH)GA Southern
NebraskaArkansas StAkronS. Alabama
@OregonColorado@Colorado
N. IllinoisTroyN. Illinois
NorthwesternNevadaDuke@Stanford
@DukeAkronUmass
Bowling GreenNotre Dame 
Ohio StateOklahomaOregon StateFlorida Atlantic
ArmyTCU (Dallas)Cincinnati
UNLVTulaneMiami (OH)
Penn StateAkronAppalachian StIdaho
Pitt@PittBuffalo
Georgia StateKent StatePitt
PurdueL'ville (Indy)E. Michigan@Nevada
OhioMissouriVanderbilt
@MissouriBoston CollegeTCU
RutgersWashingtonTexas StateUMass
E. Michigan@KansasBoston College
Morgan StateBuffaloLiberty
WisconsinUtah StateW. Kentucky@USF
Florida AtlanticNew MexicoC. Michigan
@BYUBYUNorth Texas
For 2018, I see just 12 Big Ten nonconference games scheduling other P-5 teams. Indiana and Wisconsin have scheduled no P-5 teams over the next three-years.

FearlessF

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2018, 03:51:39 PM »
I don't see regular season data points as being more important in determining relative strength of football conferences, than bowl games. Is there some statistical analysis claiming bowl results are less reliable than regular season results, or that there are more upsets in bowl games?

bowl games are just as valid as regular(pre-season) games in my book
and there are more bowl games and of higher competition
I also consider pre-season games as valid
all are valid 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2018, 04:04:47 PM »
For 2018, I see just 12 Big Ten nonconference games scheduling other P-5 teams. Indiana and Wisconsin have scheduled no P-5 teams over the next three-years.
The Big Ten counted BYU, ND and the service academies as "P5" scheduling when it made the mandate. BYU is 2018, None for 2019*, and ND is for 2020. 2021 has ND and Army.

* I've heard a "neutral" site game at FedEx Field or The Meadowlands could be in the cards to open 2019, but as of right now UW opens up at South Florida that year.

Also, I think you have IU mixed up with Illinois in your post.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2018, 07:29:34 PM »
I don't see regular season data points as being more important in determining relative strength of football conferences, than bowl games. Is there some statistical analysis claiming bowl results are less reliable than regular season results, or that there are more upsets in bowl games?
They're all data points. My only point is that there were only 8 bowl games for the B1G this year. 5 of the 8 were decided by 1 score (4 wins, 1 loss). That is a very small data set, and although the B1G went 7-1, it's not enough of a data set to really draw any conclusion.
I'm not saying bowls are unreliable. I'm saying 8 games isn't enough to say squat.

TyphonInc

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #50 on: January 16, 2018, 02:19:16 PM »
Again I think in determining Strength of Conference versus Other Conferences you only have 50~ish data points, and of those only 20~ish P5 data points. The B1G played 42 OOC games this year, 12 of those P5, and 8 bowl games. Bowl games are significant portion, but not shouldn't they over valued, or disregarded. 

I would order the the significance of determining Strength of Conference something like this:
1) OOC P5 - 35% - you get the most data points from this, and most varied data points here.
2) Bowl Games - 30% - you get the 2nd most significant data points, supposedly the closest matched games. 
3) Advanced Metrics - 20% - Advanced metrics, let the number crunches do what they do, this let's us know past Wins and Losses how strong certain results are. This year B1G had 5 bowl games determined by one score, ie really close games that could have gone a different way, don't get too big a head you played a competitive game.
4) Conference games - 10% - doesn't determine Strength of Conference vs Conference at all, but in conference pecking order to compare to other conferences pecking order. (IE we can see if a below average conference team beat an above average OOC team.)
5) OOC other - 5% - I think only significant when an upset occurs.

B1G East went 7-4 versus other P5, pretty impressive. They went 4-3 in OOC and 3-1 in bowls. IE bowls are significant, just not the biggest part.
OSU 3-1 (1-1 P5)
PSU 4-0 (2-0 P5)
MSU 3-1 (1-1 P5)
UM 3-1  (1-1 P5)
Rut 1-2 (0-1 P5)
Mary 2-1 (1-0 P5)
Ind 3-0 (1-0 P5)


B1G West went 6-3 versus other P5, impressive. They went 2-3 in OOC and 4-0 in Bowls. The bowl games took the B1G west from below average versus P5 too impressive. 
Wis 4-0 (1-0 P5)
NW 3-1 (1-1 P5)
Pur 3-1 (1-1 P5)
Iowa 4-0 (2-0 P5)
Neb 1-2 (0-1 P5)
Minn 3-0 (1-0 P5)
Ill 2-1 (0-0 P5)

Caveat, I understand for scheduling purposes some non-P5 schools count as P5, but I only counted Notre Dame here. Those other teams are popular enough to warrant P5 money but schedule they are not. While as Notre Dame plays 5 ACC, 2 P12, and B1G every year (ie a P5 schedule.)

In the grand scheme of things 20 data points are not enough to determine which conference is better than another, and 8 bowl games is definitely not enough. But we can with a wide enough brush start to paint a picture of how a conference is by looking at all of this in the right lens.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #51 on: January 16, 2018, 08:34:56 PM »
It's largely judgment unless some conference has an outstanding year.  The Big Ten was close to that I think (judgment).

I also tend to winnow out the OOC games between say Indiana and Kansas (not that they played, just an example).

If you latch onto MAJOR OOC games, you have even fewer to judge.

When LSU loses to Troy, it certainly has to count for something.  If they beat Troy, not really much unless it's in OT or something and then it's a negative.  Good teams routinely beat lesser teams by 30 points or more.  If they win say 31-24, it's not a good sign, but it's a W.  

Georgia last year (2016) barely beat some poor teams (and was 8-5).  They weren't a good team at all.  This year a sign early was how they were blowing out poor teams.  That means a something.

If you think Conference X is best, it's fine with me unless it's a bizarre selection, and even then it's fine.  Not many who post here are bizarre in their analyses.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #52 on: January 16, 2018, 10:09:27 PM »
Yeah, you need a multi-year set of data - and we may not be able to tell the best conference in 2017 until 2020 or sometime.  

The SEC's former claim was a tsunami of various data points - best bowl record AND most draft picks AND the national champion AND the best recruiting, etc.

That multitude made it easy to say, "yeah, the SEC is #1", but it's usually not that cut-and-dry.  Time will reveal, though.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

CousinFreddie

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #53 on: January 16, 2018, 10:16:46 PM »
I don't see regular season data points as being more important in determining relative strength of football conferences, than bowl games. Is there some statistical analysis claiming bowl results are less reliable than regular season results, or that there are more upsets in bowl games?

You can't readily compare P-5 conferences based on the regular season as there are few data points. Here is the Big Ten nonconference schedule 2018-20:
Hawkinole, you have Oklahoma listed in year 2019 (if I'm reading your table correctly)? 
Yet, from what I know (soonerstats.com) our major OOC that year is UCLA.  We don't play a B1G until Nebraska comes to town to renew the rivalry in 2021.
Unless you know something soonerstats doesn't know?

ELA

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #54 on: January 19, 2018, 11:27:51 AM »
Since we didn't do a Post-Bowl Power Rankings, I'll put here the final composite computer rankings (97 computers - last week in parenthesis)

1.Alabama (4)
2.Georgia (2)
3.OHIO STATE (3)
4.WISCONSIN (6)
5.Clemson (1)
6.PENN STATE (7)
7.Oklahoma (5)
8.Central Florida (9)
9.Notre Dame (10)
10.Auburn (8)
11.TCU (14)
12.Washington (11)
13.Miami (13)
14.USC (12)
15.MICHIGAN STATE (18)
16.Oklahoma State (17)
17.NORTHWESTERN (19)
18.IOWA (25)
19.NC State (24)
20.Mississippi State (-)
21.Stanford (15)
22.LSU (20)
23.Virginia Tech (16)
24.Memphis (21)
25.Boise State (-)
-
26.Michigan (22)
40.Purdue (41)
61.Indiana (60)
69.Minnesota (69)
73.Maryland (74)
77.Nebraska (75)
95.Rutgers (95)
111.Illinois (110)
...and the final conference rankings
1.ACC
2.Big Ten
3.SEC
4.Big XII
5.Pac 12
6.AAC
7.Mountain West
8.MAC
9.Conference USA
10.Sun Belt
.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2018, 12:03:00 PM by ELA »

Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Did going 7-1 in its bowls prove the B1G is the best conference?
« Reply #55 on: January 19, 2018, 04:43:41 PM »
Had the B1G gone 1-7, folks would be talking about it a good bit.


 

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