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Topic: OT - D-Day, what if?

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SFBadger96

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #112 on: June 07, 2019, 06:15:36 PM »
That's unique--and pretty cool.

My son wanted the game and he's the one I play it with (and his buddies and SFIrish, to some degree). He has the same problem with it that he has with chess--he understands the strategy well, but he isn't as focused as he should be on the end game (he also just turned 12, so he's got time to learn). He loves building towers of tanks and battleships. Two things the game reflects pretty well are that minor numerical advantage doesn't necessarily mean victory, and economically powerful actors can also afford poor strategy much better than the economically weak.

CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #113 on: June 07, 2019, 06:54:05 PM »
Getting even further off topic, but all of these "what if's" involving WWII have me thinking that I need to read more about WWI. 

I do find the second-guessing of WWII to be interesting but at the end of the day I just come back to the economic realities and generally conclude that no matter what changes you made to this or that battle the massive allied industrial advantage would eventually put the allies on top.  Part of that is because there was never any chance whatsoever that the US would join on the Axis side and after the 1940 Presidential election the question wasn't really "if" the US would join the UK but rather "when" the US would join the UK. 

For example, the US occupied Iceland while still technically a "neutral" country and began escorting convoys bound for Britain to Iceland (half way across the Atlantic) even before that.  The US Navy was actively fighting (and sinking and being sunk by) the U-boats well before war was declared. 

One more example:  After the Bismark suck the Hood in 1940 the British temporarily lost contact with the German ship.  It was an American patrol plane that found it and the information was promptly given to the British who proceeded to catch and sink the Bismark. 

Given US industrial capacity and the fact that the absolute best the Nazi's could hope for was for the US to be technically neutral while still strongly supporting the UK/USSR, you really have to stretch credibility to come up with hypothetical Axis paths to victory.

Good stuff, Medina.

The airplane that found the Bismarck after the fight in the Denmark Straight was an American-built PBY Catalina, but it had been sent via Lend-Lease to the UK.  However, it was (unofficially) under command of a U.S. Navy pilot at the time.

I would amplify on your point about us escorting convoys.  We started out running "Neutrality Patrols," in which we looked for German subs and reported any sightings to the Brits.  Later, on the premise that we needed to make sure that Lend-Lease materiel got to its destination safely, we started directly escorting convoys, and handing them off to the Royal Navy halfway across the Atlantic.  This led to the shooting incidents involving USS Greer (dropped depth charges, 4 Sep 41), USS Kearney (torpedoed, survived with loss of 11 lives, 17 Oct 41) and USS Reuben James (torpedoed, sank with the loss of 100 lives, 31 Oct 41).  Reuben James was actually based in Iceland.  Had Hitler wanted war with the United States, he could have had it right there.

Interestingly, after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, Hitler declared war on the U.S. even though he was not obligated to do so.  He said happily that victory was now guaranteed, as Germany had an ally who had never lost a war in 3,000 years.

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This is why I find WWI so fascinating.  At the time of WWI the productive capacity of Russia and the USA was substantially lower than it was 25 years later while Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally was a major industrial nation themselves.  Furthermore, at the outset of WWI there was no guarantee that the US would get involved nor even on which side they would join if they did.  At the time there were literally millions of people in the US not removed by more than a few generations from their German, Austro-Hungarian, and Irish roots.  Many of these people had a natural ethnic sympathy for their European cousins and/or had an antipathy to the British.  If the Germans had played their diplomatic cards right they probably could have AT LEAST kept the US out of the war. 


Even without getting that deep into the war, at the very outset the Germans almost succeeded.  The elder von Moltke is rumored to have died muttering "Keep the right wing strong".  This refers to his plan to invade France via Belgium and Luxembourg and to "Let the last man on the right brush the channel with his sleeve" thus to keep the British from being able to interfere. 

The German plan worked nearly to perfection but they were shocked by a Russian invasion of the ancient ancestral homelands of the Prussian elite.  That the Russians could organize and launch an offensive so quickly was not expected.  Consequently, an entire army was pulled out of the German right wing on the French front to help repel the "Russian hordes" in the East.  When the French, to their credit, managed to form a cohesive line and launch a counter-attack their point of aim was exactly at the area of the German line that had been weakened in order to strengthen the Eastern Front. 

The ironic thing is that all those German troops pulled out of the line in the West to shore up the line in the East ended up accomplishing nothing.  While they were still being transported all the way across Germany, the Eastern commanders crushed the Russians and sent them fleeing back East.  Then, the severely overtaxed German logistical section was tasked with turning all those troops pulled out of the Western Front back around again and shipping them back to the Western Front as it was apparent that they were not yet needed in the East. 

It is reasonably likely that if the Germans had left their plan alone instead of panicking when the Russians launched what turned out to be a very ill-conceived and unprepared invasion that the German advance into France in the fall of 1914 would have been a total success on the order of the one they conducted 26 years later in 1940. 

Had that happened it is almost certain that the Central Powers would have won WWI at least on the Continent. 

The other thing that absolutely fascinates me about WWI is that I feel that the cultural and technological changes were even larger than they were in WWII. 

If you think about it, the powers destroyed in WWII were mostly fairly new.  Hitler's Nazi's only controlled Germany for a little over a decade and Mussolini's Fascists only controlled Italy for about two decades.  The powers destroyed in WWI were much older.  The Hohenzollerns and Hapsburgs ruled all or part of what became Germany and Austria-Hungary respectively for centuries prior to WWI. 

The technological changes were fantastic as well.  When WWI started many of Europe's generals still hadn't learned the lessons of the American Civil War.  Aerial warfare was in it's infancy.  The planes of 1914 look like bedsheets lashed over sticks because that is basically what they were.  There were no tanks or even armored cars and for nearly all soldiers if you had to go somewhere you were going to get there either by walking or on a horse. 

At the end of WWI warfare looked pretty modern.  There were metal-skinned mono-wing fighters and bombers flying over fields where tanks duked it out with one another, etc. 

An early WWI battlefield would appear reasonably familiar to a Napoleonic or American Revolutionary soldier.  Meanwhile, a late WWI battlefield would appear reasonably familiar to a modern soldier.


Moltke the Younger did as much as any individual to make sure that the assassination of Franz Ferdinand turned into a general European War, and then he effed it up.  Then, seeing his failure, he had a nervous breakdown and quit.  What a man.

German diplomany in WWI was, as usual, maladroit to say the least.  The Germans, late to unify as a nation-state, convinced of their own righteousness, feeling victimized by the other Great Powers, have never had a talent for seeing themselves as others see them.  Their propaganda in WWI reflects that weakness--it only convinces the already convinced.
Here's an example:


The caption, translated, reads: "The aware man has a broad chest--forewarned is forearmed."
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MrNubbz

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #114 on: June 07, 2019, 07:06:27 PM »
WW I was an extension of centuries of haggling and hostilities of kindoms,states and principalities.The Brits didn't win their empire with courtly manners and fair play, more in line with Earth-shaking violence.And at one time the Sun never set on it or it's cricky aristocracy.A time of different morals and expectations
« Last Edit: June 07, 2019, 07:30:16 PM by MrNubbz »
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CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #115 on: June 07, 2019, 07:40:57 PM »
WW I was an extension of centuries of haggling and hostilities of kindoms,states and principalities.The Brits didn't win their empire with courtly manners and fair play, more in line with Earth-shaking violence.And at one time the Sun never set on it or it's cricky aristocracy.A time of different morals and expectations
Yeah.
But the Brits--with longer experience and maybe due to their own political system--ruled their empire with a better understanding of what the natives wanted, needed, expected, could tolerate, better than any of the Great Powers.  And back to the WWI propaganda point, with all that experience, they understood exactly what points they needed to emphasize to get the rest of the world on their side.  No "Aware Man Has Broad Chest" in their propaganda.
Also, they cut the telegraph line from the European mainland to North America on the first day of the war.  That meant that all telegraphy between Europe and the Americas had to come through Britain, as they of course left their own cable intact.
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #116 on: June 07, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
" the Guns of August".

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MrNubbz

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #117 on: June 07, 2019, 10:00:39 PM »
Really?British conquered countries then call them colonies.The Bengal Famine,the Potato Famine - didn't hear any problems about a British Famine.Read up on the Crown's crap in this country.Just because we share the same tongue our ideals were quite different.Germany/Ausria didn't start WWI Britain blockaded and starved many Germans/Northern Europeans,the Gerries have an ugly language but the Crown greased the skids for the 2nd WW unfortunately.BTW CW great point on the Brits cutting the cable so guess who's POV had been told to the USA
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 08:06:36 AM by MrNubbz »
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #118 on: June 08, 2019, 12:34:21 AM »
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Whew!  Good thing God was on our side!  


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MrNubbz

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #119 on: June 08, 2019, 07:25:47 AM »
In great contests each party claims to act in accordance with the will of God. Both may be, but one must be wrong. God cannot be  for and  against the same thing at the same time.
Abraham Lincoln
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #120 on: June 08, 2019, 08:06:54 AM »
It has been common in history to "beseech the blessings of God" in war, obviously by both sides often as not.

That sort of language probably has gone out of fashion today in the US and Europe.


FearlessF

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #121 on: June 08, 2019, 08:28:39 AM »
gotta find your motivation
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MrNubbz

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #122 on: June 08, 2019, 11:15:27 AM »
No atheists in the foxholes....or on the putting green
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #123 on: June 08, 2019, 01:02:57 PM »
I believe the Allies took Rome right around the same time as D-Day and knocked Italy out of the war.  Hitler set up a rump state in Northern Italy and Kesselring continued his very good defense on the peninsula until the end of the war despite having left overs.

Speaking of generals, Mark Clark often does not come off well in histories, I don't know if that is fair or not.

John S. Wood and Creighton Abrams come out well among those who have heard of them.

CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #124 on: June 08, 2019, 04:16:25 PM »
Really?British conquered countries then call them colonies.The Bengal Famine,the Potato Famine - didn't hear any problems about a British Famine.Read up on the Crown's crap in this country.Just because we share the same tongue our ideals were quite different.Germany/Ausria didn't start WWI Britain blockaded and starved many Germans/Northern Europeans,the Gerries have an ugly language but the Crown greased the skids for the 2nd WW unfortunately.BTW CW great point on the Brits cutting the cable so guess who's POV had been told to the USA
I disagree with this, MrNubbz:

In the history of European colonialism/imperialism, who ruled their colonies better than the Brits?

Whether we want to admit it or not, we owe our own self-government to the fact that we had been largely self-governing in our colonies until after the French and Indian War, and it was our desire to continue to be/return to being self governing that caused us to rebel.  The revolution began over our assertion of our rights as British subjects.

And this is largely the case throughout the former British Empire.  The former colonies that are most successful today are predominantly former British colonies.

I don't get your point that the Brits greased the skids for World War II.  I think the Germans have a lot more responsibility for that one.

All of which doesn't really have much to do with my point that I think you were responding to, which is that the British were much better at propaganda than the Germans in World War I.
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CWSooner

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Re: OT - D-Day, what if?
« Reply #125 on: June 08, 2019, 04:22:11 PM »
It has been common in history to "beseech the blessings of God" in war, obviously by both sides often as not.

That sort of language probably has gone out of fashion today in the US and Europe.
Text of President Roosevelt's Radio Address - Prayer on D-Day, June 6, 1944:

"My fellow Americans: Last night, when I spoke with you about the fall of Rome, I knew at that moment that troops of the United States and our allies were crossing the Channel in another and greater operation. It has come to pass with success thus far.

And so, in this poignant hour, I ask you to join with me in prayer:

Almighty God: Our sons, pride of our Nation, this day have set upon a mighty endeavor, a struggle to preserve our Republic, our religion, and our civilization, and to set free a suffering humanity.

Lead them straight and true; give strength to their arms, stoutness to their hearts, steadfastness in their faith.

They will need Thy blessings. Their road will be long and hard. For the enemy is strong. He may hurl back our forces. Success may not come with rushing speed, but we shall return again and again; and we know that by Thy grace, and by the righteousness of our cause, our sons will triumph.

They will be sore tried, by night and by day, without rest-until the victory is won. The darkness will be rent by noise and flame. Men's souls will be shaken with the violences of war.

For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and good will among all Thy people. They yearn but for the end of battle, for their return to the haven of home.

Some will never return. Embrace these, Father, and receive them, Thy heroic servants, into Thy kingdom.

And for us at home -- fathers, mothers, children, wives, sisters, and brothers of brave men overseas -- whose thoughts and prayers are ever with them--help us, Almighty God, to rededicate ourselves in renewed faith in Thee in this hour of great sacrifice.

Many people have urged that I call the Nation into a single day of special prayer. But because the road is long and the desire is great, I ask that our people devote themselves in a continuance of prayer. As we rise to each new day, and again when each day is spent, let words of prayer be on our lips, invoking Thy help to our efforts.

Give us strength, too -- strength in our daily tasks, to redouble the contributions we make in the physical and the material support of our armed forces.

And let our hearts be stout, to wait out the long travail, to bear sorrows that may come, to impart our courage unto our sons wheresoever they may be.

And, O Lord, give us Faith. Give us Faith in Thee; Faith in our sons; Faith in each other; Faith in our united crusade. Let not the keenness of our spirit ever be dulled. Let not the impacts of temporary events, of temporal matters of but fleeting moment let not these deter us in our unconquerable purpose.

With Thy blessing, we shall prevail over the unholy forces of our enemy. Help us to conquer the apostles of greed and racial arrogancies. Lead us to the saving of our country, and with our sister Nations into a world unity that will spell a sure peace a peace invulnerable to the schemings of unworthy men. And a peace that will let all of men live in freedom, reaping the just rewards of their honest toil.

Thy will be done, Almighty God.

Amen."
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