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Topic: OSU and reality

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MikeDeTiger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #56 on: October 28, 2019, 01:40:41 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on October 28, 2019, 10:15:50 AM
Oh how soon we forget.  Being the next “ great team” is so fragile, and always ends badly. 

When you play Wisconsin, Penn State, MSU- especially in their better seasons, sometimes Iowa, and always Michigan (if you are OSU), those are games that take a huge physical and emotional toll at the CFB level.

Penn State, and what I think is a whole new level of a Michigan team, back to back.  That’s going to get The Buckeyes.  One or both of them. 

Michigan was never as bad as they looked and Ohio State is not close to unbeatable.  It’s: what are you capable of?  How well, or how poorly can you play? 

Should make for a crazy stretch run. 

I don't think anybody is saying Ohio State won't lose a game.  Only that they're the best team in the country.  

I won't say it's indisputable, your mileage may certainly vary, but it would take some slight of hand to find teams to put ahead of them in a power poll, which is all I mean when I say they're #1, or the best team, or whatever.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #57 on: October 28, 2019, 01:53:50 PM »
Ohio State won't lose a game.
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Mdot21

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #58 on: October 28, 2019, 01:57:55 PM »
Quote
Ohio State won't lose a game.
wouldn't be so sure on that. I think they are obviously great. Perhaps even the best team in the country this year. This defense is the best defense that OSU has had since those 2014/2015 teams. The offense is lethal too, but they don't have a dominant back that can take over the game like they had back then with Zeke. Their backs are very good, not elite top 5 NFL draft pick good like Zeke was. I think Bama or Clemson or LSU could get 'em in the playoff.
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bayareabadger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #59 on: October 28, 2019, 01:58:44 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 28, 2019, 09:23:22 AM
Problem was in '16 JT was pedestrian but he was surrounded with Guys headed for Sunday.When joe came in the 4th qtr receivers didn't have to stop,lean forward or reach back to catch the ball.Hit them in stride arms extended like your seeing in Baton Rouge.Later on that year Clemson exposed this charade - stacked the line took away everything underneath and watched JT arm punt everything over 25 yds.The following spring Urbz handed the starting QB job to JT - half the fanbase was livid. Burrow had went 22-28 the season before but JT had Meyers Party Picture or something.Haskins was still green,then Burrow broke his thumb,but Haskins mounted a comeback vs Michigan that season and it was obvious JT shouldn't had the gig.Problem was that defensive line over 2 seasons sent 6 guys to the League - they were Bama ready.Urbz affection for JT clouded his judgement and hurt the chance for a program NC.But the dood could recruit
I know, I know, he put up a junior season that looked modestly like Burrow’s statistically. it was the greatest disaster of quarterbacking since they started throwing the ball forward.

But what I’m saying is this, in our imaginations when Burrow started as a RS freshman or Haskins as a RS freshmen play like they did at their peak. So if you bench Barrett say after the NW game in 2016, and young Burrow struggles (not an unreasonable guess) and a national title quality team is wasted, we’d hear complaints about benching a guy who threw 17 TDs and four picks, plus run well for an unproven guy.

The nature of people is to assume the QB not playing is awesome and that our team’s staff will get that awesomeness out of them. But that’s using the most rosy glasses. Maybe RS freshman Burrow, Curtis Samuel and a bunch of very fringe NFL guys solve that super nasty Clemson defense, but really, most likely, they knock him around and we hear endlessly about the time Urbs benched a productive vet for a wet behind the ears frosh.
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bayareabadger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #60 on: October 28, 2019, 02:00:43 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 28, 2019, 01:40:41 PM
I don't think anybody is saying Ohio State won't lose a game.  Only that they're the best team in the country. 

I won't say it's indisputable, your mileage may certainly vary, but it would take some slight of hand to find teams to put ahead of them in a power poll, which is all I mean when I say they're #1, or the best team, or whatever. 
Ohio State PROBABLY won’t lose a game before the playoff, after that, who knows?
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MrNubbz

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #61 on: October 28, 2019, 02:36:45 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 28, 2019, 01:58:44 PM
 but really, most likely, they knock him around and we hear endlessly about the time Urbs benched a productive vet for a wet behind the ears frosh.
Not really,Burrow threw for over 11,000 yds in HS you get to the next level you half to stretch the field.When you can't the apple polishing student getting woodshedded is what you get.Joe is a smart kid got his degree in 3 yrs we had the talent prolly/maybe would not have won but a thrower like joe makes it respectable.Look what happens at LSU when preparation meets opportunity - surrounded by athletes.Make you a sig bet - Burrow at least makes an Arena League Roster for one full season
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #62 on: October 28, 2019, 02:37:51 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 28, 2019, 01:58:44 PM
I know, I know, he put up a junior season that looked modestly like Burrow’s statistically. it was the greatest disaster of quarterbacking since they started throwing the ball forward.

But what I’m saying is this, in our imaginations when Burrow started as a RS freshman or Haskins as a RS freshmen play like they did at their peak. So if you bench Barrett say after the NW game in 2016, and young Burrow struggles (not an unreasonable guess) and a national title quality team is wasted, we’d hear complaints about benching a guy who threw 17 TDs and four picks, plus run well for an unproven guy.

The nature of people is to assume the QB not playing is awesome and that our team’s staff will get that awesomeness out of them. But that’s using the most rosy glasses. Maybe RS freshman Burrow, Curtis Samuel and a bunch of very fringe NFL guys solve that super nasty Clemson defense, but really, most likely, they knock him around and we hear endlessly about the time Urbs benched a productive vet for a wet behind the ears frosh.


Fans' most popular player is the backup QB.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #63 on: October 28, 2019, 02:39:35 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 28, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
Ohio State PROBABLY won’t lose a game before the playoff, after that, who knows?
Maybe Michigan appears to have woken up a tad.Can't wait but the season is going bye entirely to fast as it is
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"Defensively,as a catcher I lead the major leagues in passed balls in 1967. Which was pretty impressive as I didn't play in every game" Bob Uecker

MrNubbz

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #64 on: October 28, 2019, 02:41:33 PM »
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 28, 2019, 02:37:51 PM

Fans' most popular player is the backup QB. 
Ya or the one who can actually throw a spiral consistently/accurately over 25 yds
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"Defensively,as a catcher I lead the major leagues in passed balls in 1967. Which was pretty impressive as I didn't play in every game" Bob Uecker

MrNubbz

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #65 on: October 28, 2019, 02:44:27 PM »
Quote from: ELA on October 28, 2019, 08:17:12 AM
Chase Young is the best college defensive player since Suh
He certainly in the arguemenmt - both Bosa Bros are looking all that on Sundays - which is a little suprising to me
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"Defensively,as a catcher I lead the major leagues in passed balls in 1967. Which was pretty impressive as I didn't play in every game" Bob Uecker

MrNubbz

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #66 on: October 28, 2019, 02:46:08 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on October 28, 2019, 11:39:39 AM
Enjoy it OSU fans.  This is a special team, even by OSU standards.
No schmoozing from youse
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"Defensively,as a catcher I lead the major leagues in passed balls in 1967. Which was pretty impressive as I didn't play in every game" Bob Uecker

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #67 on: October 28, 2019, 02:59:46 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on October 28, 2019, 02:00:43 PM
Ohio State PROBABLY won’t lose a game before the playoff, after that, who knows?
Exactly. Here's how FPI rates them, obviously not counting CCG yet as it's not officially "on the schedule". Therefore I looked at Wisconsin's FPI (20.0, ranked 10th) vs the odds they gave for PSU (24.4, 5th) at home and the odds they gave for Michigan (18.5, 12th) on the road. I'm going to assume that Wisconsin on a neutral field is slightly more positive for OSU than PSU at home, and as Wisconsin is currently rated tougher than Michigan, going to assume that Wisconsin on a neutral field is just barely easier than Michigan at home.

  • Maryland - 99.2%
  • @Rutger - 99.6%
  • PSU - 81%
  • @Mich - 82%
  • Extrapolation for CCG vs Wisc: 83%


If you multiply it out, OSU is 65.6% likely to win the next 4 games and be undefeated going into the CCG. Assuming my estimate is somewhere close to accurate for the CCG, they'd be around 54-55% to end the entire stretch undefeated and 13-0.

Now, there's not a game in there that they should lose. And 65.6% to go 12-0 might sound a little shaky. But compare that to the other remaining undefeated P5 teams:

  • Alabama - 42.9% likely to go 12-0, and if they get past LSU, STILL only 59.5%
  • Clemson - 83.8% likely to go 12-0 (wow... what a cake schedule! Not a single team in the top 25 of FPI remaining...)
  • LSU - 20.5% likely to go 12-0, and if they get past 'Bama, STILL only 73.9%
  • PSU - 12.6% likely to go 12-0, but if they get past OSU, it's 66.6%
  • Minnesota - 3.1%
  • Baylor - 7.4%, but up to 26.8% if they can upset OU

The only P5 team in better shape is Clemson, because their remaining SoS is terrible. 

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bayareabadger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #68 on: October 28, 2019, 03:13:42 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 28, 2019, 02:36:45 PM
Not really,Burrow threw for over 11,000 yds in HS you get to the next level you half to stretch the field.When you can't the apple polishing student getting woodshedded is what you get.Joe is a smart kid got his degree in 3 yrs we had the talent prolly/maybe would not have won but a thrower like joe makes it respectable.Look what happens at LSU when preparation meets opportunity - surrounded by athletes.Make you a sig bet - Burrow at least makes an Arena League Roster for one full season
Wait, a kid with an OSU offer threw for a lot of yards when he almost never played a school with more than 900 kids. WOW. That’s like 3,000 less than a guy who washed out at Clemson and 5,000 less than a guy Washington fans wanted benched. And they actually played at big schools against better schedules.

I think when all said and done, Joe will be a more productive passer. That I’m not arguing.

I’m saying he probably wouldn’t have helped that OSU team to being better than Clemson that year, and if he wasn’t, people would’ve moaned endlessly about getting too cute unless he turned around and won a title a title the next year. That defense was mean, and if your assumption is, RFr Burrow is gonna score a bunch on that ... it seems fanciful.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: OSU and reality
« Reply #69 on: October 28, 2019, 03:31:34 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on October 28, 2019, 02:44:27 PM
He certainly in the arguemenmt - both Bosa Bros are looking all that on Sundays - which is a little suprising to me

sigh....send him to the Saints with all the other OSU guys so we can complain about another one.  

(actually, nobody complains about Michael Thomas)
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