| Northwestern came out guns blazing on Saturday, looking for a massive home upset over a top 15 Michigan team, similar to the one they pulled off over this Michigan State program a year ago. The difference is that Northwestern offense was absolutely humming, while this one was not...and that was before their starting running back retired. The Wildcats ran out to a 17-0 lead in the first 17 minutes of the game, but it's clear that once the scripted plays ran out, so did Northwestern's offense. On the first three drives, the Wildcats accumulated 145 yards and 8 first downs, while putting up 17 points. Over the remaining 9 drives of the game, the Wildcats were shut out, and had 57 yards of offense, only 7 first downs. The loss of Larkin was noticeable, with Northwestern mustering just 28 rushing yards on 0.8 ypc. Granted the 6 sacks also had something to do with that. Right around this time last year, the Northwestern offensive line looked like a complete mess against Wisconsin, and right as the calendar swung to October, they turned it around. Is that coming this year? If it is, there aren't any signs of it. That means the Spartans defensive front should eat. The pass rush is finally coming around the past two weeks, and if the Spartans can get there with four, that should really ease some pressure on the back end. The problem is that as bad (inexplicably) as Northwestern's offensive line is (PFF ranks it #12 in the conference), Michigan State's has actually been worse, sliding in at #13. The issues are in run blocking, where PFF determined a week ago that Connor Hayward had one of the two best weeks for a Big Ten running back...while running for 48 yards on 3.2 ypc. I said in the preseason that Michigan State was woefully thin, and was fortunate to have fantastic injury luck last season. So far in 2018, that has not been the case, losing their top cornerback in the preseason, and their punter on an uncalled late hit. But it's been offensively where the damage has been the worst. L.J. Scott hasn't played since the first half of the Arizona State game, the injury to Cody White means three of the top four WRs are down, and seemingly most impactful has been multiple injuries along the offensive line. It's clear from how he looked early in the season, that the coaching staff wanted a more composed Brian Lewerke, less gun slinging, less undesigned run plays. That wasn't working, he looked tentative, and it was even hurting his passing. Late in the Indiana game, it seems a shift was allowed to occur, and Lewerke looks freer, more like the guy we saw last year. Right now, on paper, a dominant Spartan defense (ranked #1 in the conference and top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency) plus Lewerke, at home, should be enough. But the quick passing game, as a running game has given Michigan State fits the past two seasons. The Wildcats have scored 93 points, while throwing the ball a combined 83 times. Last year neither team could run the ball worth a damn, but Lewerke and Thorson combined to go 73-105 for 801 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. It seems doubtful that happens again, Lewerke has Felton Davis and some walk ons to throw to, and Thorson looks like a shell of his 2017 self. But this is the type of offense Dantonio's defenses have traditionally struggled with. The key is how quickly Michigan State can get there with four. If they do, they'll be able to disrupt the timing routes, and rely on their talent edge. If not, it may start to look like last year. |
