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Northwestern Wildcats (1-3, 1-6) at Iowa Hawkeyes (1-3, 3-4)

3:30 - Iowa City, IA - espn2

When this game opened, it had the lowest over/under of any game so far this year.  It has already been bet up 6 points, and probably with good reason.  Yes, Iowa's offense struggles.  But I think because Rutgers takes up all of the air in the room for bad team jokes, people are somehow giving Northwestern a free pass.  The Wildcats currently sit at #114 in the Massey composite rankings.  Those rankings go back to 1998, and Northwestern currently ranks as the third worst Big Ten team in the past 25 years.  And that's with a fluky conference win, across an ocean, seemingly the week after the 4th of July.  Would anyone pick that to happen again?  Iowa's offense is famously bad, but where do they rank in FPI?  #101.  Guess who is #100?  Northwestern.  And the Wildcats' defense is #69, not #1.  For good measure they also have the 6th worst special teams in the FBS.  Whatever chance Northwestern has, is, I guess, simply that Fitzgerald has done it before.  In his 17th season at his alma mater, he trails only Kirk Ferentz in tenure among Big Ten coaches.  Not only that, but he has won 3 straight road games in Kinnick, and is 6-3 for his career in that stadium.  I wonder if any other programs have 6 wins in Kinnick in that time frame?  Northwestern could use the defense that showed up in the rain in Happy Valley.  Unfortunately, looking like 65 and sunny in Saturday in Iowa City.  Even in losing 54-10 to Ohio State, the Hawkeye defense held the Buckeyes to just 360 yards, under 70 on the ground, AND scored a touchdown themselves.  But the offense turned the ball over 6 times.  Northwestern forced 5 turnovers against Penn State, on natural grass, in horrible weather, and still lost.  Iowa's offense can play a lot more conservative this week, and that should be more than enough, against a historically bad Big Ten team.

IOWA 33, NORTHWESTERN 10