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Topic: New Playoff Rankings

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FearlessF

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #28 on: November 30, 2022, 12:02:14 PM »
As for TCU, it's just hard to get past the name.  How important is defense in the CFP?

playing offenses like USC and Ohio St., ya gotta be able to get a couple stops
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rolltidefan

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #29 on: November 30, 2022, 12:05:50 PM »
UGA is certainly "gettable".  Any team is, pretty much.  UGA has looked pretty pedestrian at times, I'm not sure exactly why.  Motivation?

We may learn more in the CG.

As for TCU, it's just hard to get past the name.  How important is defense in the CFP?


d is very important.

the scoring d rank of each champ in cfb playoff:
uga - 1
bama - 13
lsu - 31
clem - 1
bama - 1
clem - 10
bama - 3
osu - 26

lsu and osu are bit of anomalies, but that lsu d really turned it on second half of season. and ended up holding their cfbp opp to their lowest and 3rd lowest (by 1 point) scores of their seasons.
the osu d isn't so clear it was getting better, but that was a weird year. they were still the 2nd ranked scoring d from the cfb playoff participants. outlier maybe, i don't know.

this years cfb playoff hopefuls scoring d rank (pre ccg weekend):
uga - 1
mich - 3
tcu - 53
usc - 60
osu - 13
bama - 10 (i don't think bama is in it, don't think bama should be in it, but i'm also a homer and a hypocrite, so suck it)

Cincydawg

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2022, 12:10:21 PM »
UGA lost probably their best player on defense (aside from Carter) before the Tenn game.  That one hurt (LB).

medinabuckeye1

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2022, 12:13:55 PM »
all these folks who have not seen TCU play are in for a big surprise
I think TCU is better than a lot of folks are giving them credit for.
I think you may be misunderstanding some of our views of TCU.

This is a discussion of the CFP and the contenders for that have been narrowed down to TCU, UGA, M, USC, and tOSU. To say that you think any one of those is the worst of the bunch isn't necessarily saying that they are a bad team. The competition is REALLY strong and one of them has to be the weakest.

My take on the five:
TCU: 
They have a lot more close wins than one would expect for teams at this level and those close wins include a few over teams that NC contenders absolutely should not struggle with. That said, they have beaten all opponents so far so maybe they are this year's 2002 tOSU. The problem, as I see it, is that works . . . until it doesn't.  For the vast majority of teams like that it eventually doesn't work and they play like they did against a crap opponent and lose to a good one.

Georgia:
When they've been at their best they've looked unstoppable. However, they seem to forget they are playing from time to time and they end up in inexplicable situations like close late with Kent and Mizzou or only up by a FG at halftime over a woeful GaTech team. I suspect that as defending Champions there are more-or-less just bored and they'll be at their best in the CFP but I could see a possibility where they lose the semi-final if they show up as 3 TD favorites and sleep walk through 3/4 of the game.

Michigan:
They have looked very beatable at times but much like TCU and UGA they've always been able to find what they needed. The problem, same as for TCU is that works . . . until it doesn't.

USC: They have a Heisman-to-be QB who is a threat to score on every play and a really good offense around him but their defense only does one thing reasonably well. The good news is that one thing is create turnovers but that is the bad news too because if they don't get the turnovers they aren't stopping anybody in this group.

Ohio State:
I think question #1 is where their collective head is. They were sloppy and indisciplined against Michigan and it cost them dearly. Those 9 penalties for 91 yards ended a few tOSU drives and extended a few M drives and easily could have been the difference in the game. If they get the opportunity they could spend December working to earn redemption and show up looking like the team to beat or they could spend December feeling sorry for themselves and show up looking like a shell of "September Ohio State".

Cincydawg

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2022, 12:23:31 PM »
"19 year old kids ..."

Cincydawg

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2022, 12:25:07 PM »
My step son in law had some NFL games going while we were there and I watched more NFL than I usually watch in a year.  I was struck by how businesslike it seemed (!!!).  It almost was like the NBA where players barely play hard at all at times.  I saw few to no examples of real effort beyond the usual, and little enthusiasm.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2022, 02:05:22 PM »
d is very important.

the scoring d rank of each champ in cfb playoff:
uga - 1
bama - 13
lsu - 31
clem - 1
bama - 1
clem - 10
bama - 3
osu - 26

lsu and osu are bit of anomalies, but that lsu d really turned it on second half of season. and ended up holding their cfbp opp to their lowest and 3rd lowest (by 1 point) scores of their seasons.
the osu d isn't so clear it was getting better, but that was a weird year. they were still the 2nd ranked scoring d from the cfb playoff participants. outlier maybe, i don't know.
Those LSU and tOSU teams also each had a guy on offense who just played head-and-shoulders above everyone else at least at the end of the season.

Burrow for LSU was sensational and Zeke's performance in the last three games was just about at that level. For that year Zeke was very good with the third highest rushing total nationally but if you back out the last three games he was only "good". His stat lines from the last three games:
  • Vs UW: 20 carries, 220 yards, 11 yard avg, 2 TD's
  • Vs Bama: 20 carries, 230 yards, 11.5 yard average, 2 TD's
  • Vs Oregon: 36 carries, 246 yards, 6.8 yard average, 4 TD's
  • Average: 25.3 carries, 232 yards, 9.2 yard average, 2.7 TD's
That is just insane and when matched with an already potent offense and a defense that I do think had improved somewhat over the course of the year it was unstoppable.

It is hard to quantify improvement over the season but the 20 points that Oregon scored in the title game was their lowest of the year. Only Zona (24) and WSU (38) held them to 42 or less. The shutout of Wisconsin in the CG was easily Wisconsin's lowest output of the year and even the 35 that your Crimson Tide put up in the Sugar Bowl was fairly low by Bama's standards that year.


Kris60

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #35 on: November 30, 2022, 04:01:02 PM »
agreed, they play defense
Actually, outside of the Texas game when their defense played lights out their defense has just been kinda meh.  74th in total defense, 53rd in scoring defense.  The offense has been the better unit of the two.  4th in scoring offense, 16th in total. They are balanced offensively too.

But make no mistake, I put TCU a notch behind UGA and Michigan. USC too, but to a lesser extent.

Cincydawg

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2022, 04:04:31 PM »
I think TCU is "good enough" to win this thing with a break or three.  They need to win the CG first of course.  That's a top ten ranked matchup.

I think every team will need a break or three to win three tough games in a row.

FearlessF

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #37 on: November 30, 2022, 04:17:43 PM »
Actually, outside of the Texas game when their defense played lights out their defense has just been kinda meh.  74th in total defense, 53rd in scoring defense.  The offense has been the better unit of the two.  4th in scoring offense, 16th in total. They are balanced offensively too.

But make no mistake, I put TCU a notch behind UGA and Michigan. USC too, but to a lesser extent.
hah, I watched the Texas game and the Iowa St game

a couple of their better defensive performances
any defense that can shut down the Horn's running backs is pretty solid
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #38 on: November 30, 2022, 04:52:08 PM »
As an Ohio State fan I can only hope this changes but there really haven't been many CG upsets in the CFP era.

rolltidefan

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #39 on: November 30, 2022, 06:04:58 PM »
As an Ohio State fan I can only hope this changes but there really haven't been many CG upsets in the CFP era.
interested in this. went back to look.

in sec - only 2021 #4 bama over #1 uga, and in 2017 #6 uga over #4 au. not sure i'd consider either of those upsets, more like toss up winners.
in b1g - 2017 #8 osu over #4 wisc, 2016 #7 psu over #6 osu, and 2015 #5 mich st over #4 iowa. again, wouldn't consider any of those upsets, just toss up winners.
in bigxii - 2020 #12 oklahoma over #8 iowa st and 2021 #9 baylor over #5 ok st. again, toss ups, imo.
in acc - 2020 #3 clemson over #2 notre dame. such a weird one, and no, just a toss up.
in pac - 2021 - #14 utah over #10 oregon, 2020 UR oregon over #13 usc, finally a real upset. but didn't effect playoffs.

in fact, memory might be messing with me, but only 2017 osu and uga wins, 2015 mich st win, 2020 clemson win, and maybe 2021 baylor win effected the cfbp. and 3 of those were play in games.

Mdot21

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #40 on: November 30, 2022, 06:11:27 PM »
Michigan:
They have looked very beatable at times but much like TCU and UGA they've always been able to find what they needed. The problem, same as for TCU is that works . . . until it doesn't.
yeah I'm just not seeing where Michigan has looked very beatable at times aside from an Illinois game where like half their starters were sitting out and they were clearly on cruise control and looking ahead to Ohio State. 

The two top 10 teams they played- Penn State and Ohio State, they steamrolled by 3+ TDs. Everyone else they played they played a vanilla brand of ball on and still choked them all into submission. You want to give Maryland and Iowa props for scoring garbage points with seconds left in games that were already decided by double digits- one by 15 and one by 20, be my guest. But I don't. 

Mdot21

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Re: New Playoff Rankings
« Reply #41 on: November 30, 2022, 06:14:14 PM »
Probably a running threat from the QB not sure about passing
They are a much better team all around this year. JJ has better passing #'s than Cade. JJ has 2 More pass TD's and 4 LESS INT's than Cade in 3 less games. Cade started 14 games last year. JJ has only started 11 and he's got nearly as many yards as Cade did in 14, his completion % is higher, he's got more TD passes and he's got 4 less INT's. 

JJ has been a SIGNIFICANTLY better QB than Cade has. Especially when you factor in the element of his legs. It's not really close.

 

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