Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

hopefully, some good games this weekend

with a few upsets to spice things up

rooting for the Utes, Mildkitties, and Purdue, of course

We've discussed this around the margins but let's get more thorough, what is actually at stake in each P5 CG:

ACCCG, UNC vs Clemson:
There are no CFP implications but there is still a good bit at stake because the winner goes to the Orange Bowl but the loser has no realistic shot at a NY6 bowl. Thus, while the winner is in the major and famous Orange Bowl, the loser goes to Orlando for the Cheez-it Bowl.

B12CG, KSU vs TCU:
For TCU there is a CFP bid to play for. The Frogs could theoretically make it even with a loss especially if USC also loses but there are no guarantees. KSU gets a NY6 bowl with a win. With a loss they might still sneak in but they'd be sweating out the selections.

B1GCG, M vs Purdue:
Michigan is in the CFP either way and this might not even matter for seeding depending on what happens with UGA and USC. For Purdue this game is the difference between the Rose Bowl and probably the Citrus.

P12CG, USC vs Utah:
USC is the only CG participant that is clearly in with a win and clearly out with a loss so they have the biggest stakes this weekend. Utah is in a situation similar to Purdue in that this game is the difference between the Rose Bowl and the Alamo Bowl.

SECCG, LSU vs UGA:
Georgia has slightly higher stakes than Michigan because with a win they are clearly #1 but with a loss they'd have almost no shot at #1. That said, #1 might not actually be a good thing. It depends on how good you think TCU, USC, and/or tOSU are relative to each other. For LSU in similar fashion to the other underdogs this game makes a big difference in bowl destination between the NY6 and the Citrus.

OSU still looks dangerous to me, but USC with their QB might be more so.  Teams with great QBs often win this thing.

That is an either/or but, as a Georgia fan, how would you rank difficulty of beating those two and TCU?

all these folks who have not seen TCU play are in for a big surprise

Just to play this out, let's assume the following:

• UGA is in regardless and gets the highest seed of teams with their # of losses.
• M is in regardless and is behind only UGA if undefeated but ahead of only tOSU among 1-loss teams (I'm making this assumption because a loss to Purdue would be easily the worst loss for any contender)
• TCU is behind UGA and M as an undefeated and out with a loss unless USC also loses in which case they are #4.
• USC is in with a win and out with a loss.
• tOSU is the "first team out" and gets in if TCU or USC loses but otherwise out.

So there are 16 possibilities based on the outcomes of four games:

The above are roughly in order of likelihood.  I have Georgia in regardless so they have 16 potential situations:

• 7 they play Ohio State (6 1v4, 1 2v3)
• 4 they play TCU (2 of each)
• 3 they play USC (1 1v4, 2 2v3)
• 2 they play Michigan (1 of each)

Michigan is also in in all 16 scenarios:

• 6 they play TCU (2 1v4, 4 2v3)
• 4 they play USC (1 1v4, 3 2v3)
• 4 they play tOSU (2 of each)
• 2 they play Georgia (1 of each)

TCU is in in the eight scenarios in which they beat KSU and the four where they lose but USC also loses:

• 6 they play Michigan (2 1v4, 4 2v3)
• 4 they play Georgia (2 of each)
• 1 they play USC (2v3)
• 1 they play tOSU (1v4)

Ohio State is in in the eight scenarios in which Utah beats USC and the four in which USC wins but TCU loses:

• 7 they play Georgia (5 1v4, 1 2v3)
• 4 they play Michigan (2 of each)
• 1 they play TCU (1v4)

USC is in in the eight scenarios in which they beat Utah:

• 4 they play Michigan (1 1v4, 3 2v3)
• 3 they play Georgia (1 1v4, 2 2v3)
• 1 they play TCU (2v3)

I think TCU is better than a lot of folks are giving them credit for.

I don't think they're good enough to win the CFP, but that's as much because I don't believe anyone is going to beat Georgia, as anything else.

I agree but if given a shot I think TCU could beat the other two

all these folks who have not seen TCU play are in for a big surprise

psh, they only beat texas by 7. who beats texas by only 1 score, lol?