| Nebraska had the type of bounceback performance they needed last week, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But this game is absolutely no fun. Illinois isn't good, but they have more talent than a team that just lost to Eastern Michigan, it's on the road, under the lights. Granted, Nebraska fans always travel well, and Illinois is giving out free tickets. Just how pro-Illini the crowd is is TBD. Illinois' defense has been slightly better so far this year, but I'd expect a heavy bend but don't break appraoch against a Cornhusker team that has struggled big time in the kicking game to start the year. The Huskers have used three kickers, and they've combined to miss 4 of 6 field goals, with a long of 36, and only one attempt longer than that. They have a missed PAT for good measure. There's been no word that Barret Pickering is healthy yet, but the addition of walk-on Matt Waldoch from the school's CLUB soccer team this week is probably a bad sign. I'm most interested in seeing what's real in the matchup between Illinois' run offense vs. Nebraska's run defense. A year ago the Illini were #6 in the nation a 6.1 ypc, this year so far they are #9 JUST IN THE CONFERENCE, at 4.2 ypc, against terrible competition. I'd only expect that to go down. Conversely, Nebraska's run defense was horrible last year, #109 in the nation allowing 5.1 ypc, but so far this year, just 2.2 ypc, 8th best nationally. So what is for real? Nebraska's run defense probably isn't what it's been so far, but it's clearly improved, but Illinois' inability to run the ball is legitimately concerning. Against a UConn team that had probably the worst defense ever last year, Illinois mustered just 3.7 ypc, and picked up 50 yards on one play from the backup RB, so just 2.4 ypc otherwise. Granted they were playing that game without Reggie Corbin. He returned against Eastern Michigan and reeled off 144 yards on 18 carries (8.0 ypc). The issue is that nobody else is stepping up, and Brandon Peters is not a running threat at the quarterback spot, as A.J. Bush Jr. was last year. Last year the Illini had three running backs who each had 60+ carries, and each averaged 5.5 ypc+, plus a quarterback who ran for 733 yards in just 8 complete games. This year, Corbin is back, but Dre Brown, Ra'Von Bonner and Mike Epstein have failed to fill out that stable, and Peters doesn't require a spy. The Husker pass defense is still suspect, allowing the most yards per game, 2nd most per attempt, but have compensated with 5 interceptions, 2 more than any other Big Ten team. Brandon Peters' pass efficiency has been solid. SMall sample size, but he's 6th in the Big Ten, ahead of guys like Shea Patterson, Nate Stanley, Brian Lewerke and Josh Jackson. I think he helps them stay in the game, but Nebraska pulls out a win in a sneaky tough environment. |
