Just when I was ready to buy into both of these teams, they both go and lay an egg. Minnesota loses at home to a Maryland team using its third string quarterback, making his first career start. Purdue's offense looked absolutely dreadful against Michigan. The difference is the Boilermakers have had a week to regroup, while Minnesota has not. For all of the good vibes already for both coaches in Year 1, the loser of this game has to start feeling a little wary of their bowl chances. This one may come down to how often Minnesota can strike Purdue on big pass plays. The Gophers don't want to pass. They do it less than any team in the conference, but when they do, it works. Their 8.9 ypa trails only Ohio State and Wisconsin among Big Ten teams, and their 15.0 ypc is best in the conference. Purdue's defense is the exact opposite, they've been surrending big plays through the air all season, ranking 13th in the conference in pass defense, allowing a league worst 7.6 ypa. Purdue has to win 1st down on defense, and force Minnesota into passing down, because when Minnesota passes because they have to, they struggle. When they pass when they want to, which isn't often, they are among the best, and will be attacking Purdue's biggest weakness. Combine that with Purdue's anemic pass rush, against Minnesota's offensive line, which has been sneaky good at pass blocking, and those big plays will be there. At first glance, after seeing Minnesota last week, this really looks like a game Purdue should win, but I think the things Minnesota does well, line up better with the things Purdue isn't equipped to stop, really even than Michigan does. Michigan just overwhelmed Purdue with depth over 60 minutes. Minnesota can't do that, but they can exploit Purdue. Purdue can slow the Gopher running attack, and if the Minnesota play action isn't there, they will struggle to move the ball. I don't see the Gophers moving up and down the field, but I think they'll hit enough splash plays to pull out the much needed road win.
MINNESOTA 26, PURDUE 24
