CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: betarhoalphadelta on October 04, 2017, 04:44:55 PM
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Purdue is favored (?!?!) in a conference game? Vegas says 4 points...
I haven't really seen much Minnesota football this year. Are they rowing the boat? I heard their goose is cooked (https://www.landof10.com/minnesota/pj-fleck-minnesota-football-geese).
Purdue has plans to heavily honor Joe Tiller before and during the game. Maybe if we're lucky a certain former QB whose NFL team is on a bye week right now will make an appearance and motivate the team...
What do you guys think?
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They looked like crap, then they looked like maybe they had figured it out, then they looked like crap again.
I've only seen them against Buffalo and Maryland, so maybe I'm unfairly down on them.
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Big game for both teams' bowl hopes IMHO.
Minnesota:
The Gophers looked to be successfully rowing the boat at 3-0 (they even had a few votes in the polls) but then they lost unexpectedly to a Maryland team on about their 9th string QB. In retrospect the early wins over Buffalo (3-2 with wins over nobody), OrSU (1-4 with the only win being close at home over an FCS team), and MTSU (2-3) really didn't tell us much.
If the Gophers win that will get them to four wins. Illinois is coming up in two weeks so that should be five. Then they just need to win one of their other six games (most likely vMSU, vUNL, or @NU) to go bowling. They should make it. If they lose this then they'll still need three wins to go bowling so there will not be much margin for error. They'll likely have to beat Illinois and two out of three of MSU, UNL, and NU.
Purdue:
The Boilermakers have a worse record (2-2) but that is largely because they have played a tougher slate so far. They need four more wins to go bowling. If they win this they should also beat Rutgers and Illinois so that leaves them needing just one. They should probably be able to win one of their other five games (most likely vUNL, @NU, or vIU). They should make it. If they lose this then they'll still need four wins to go bowling so there will be almost no margin for error. They'll likely have to beat Illinois and Rutgers and two out of three of vUNL, @NU, vIU.
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Didn't we add even more bowls?
I think the conference will get at least one 5-7 team in. A couple years ago we got 2 right? Minnesota and Nebraska?
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Feels like IL went to SF with a losing record and then won their Bowl Game.
Medina summed up things very well. If Purdue can pull it off, I would be quite surprised if they don't go bowling, in fact depending on if they can stay fairly injury free (we have NO depth), I think 6 wins will be the floor,
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Just when I was ready to buy into both of these teams, they both go and lay an egg. Minnesota loses at home to a Maryland team using its third string quarterback, making his first career start. Purdue's offense looked absolutely dreadful against Michigan. The difference is the Boilermakers have had a week to regroup, while Minnesota has not. For all of the good vibes already for both coaches in Year 1, the loser of this game has to start feeling a little wary of their bowl chances. This one may come down to how often Minnesota can strike Purdue on big pass plays. The Gophers don't want to pass. They do it less than any team in the conference, but when they do, it works. Their 8.9 ypa trails only Ohio State and Wisconsin among Big Ten teams, and their 15.0 ypc is best in the conference. Purdue's defense is the exact opposite, they've been surrending big plays through the air all season, ranking 13th in the conference in pass defense, allowing a league worst 7.6 ypa. Purdue has to win 1st down on defense, and force Minnesota into passing down, because when Minnesota passes because they have to, they struggle. When they pass when they want to, which isn't often, they are among the best, and will be attacking Purdue's biggest weakness. Combine that with Purdue's anemic pass rush, against Minnesota's offensive line, which has been sneaky good at pass blocking, and those big plays will be there. At first glance, after seeing Minnesota last week, this really looks like a game Purdue should win, but I think the things Minnesota does well, line up better with the things Purdue isn't equipped to stop, really even than Michigan does. Michigan just overwhelmed Purdue with depth over 60 minutes. Minnesota can't do that, but they can exploit Purdue. Purdue can slow the Gopher running attack, and if the Minnesota play action isn't there, they will struggle to move the ball. I don't see the Gophers moving up and down the field, but I think they'll hit enough splash plays to pull out the much needed road win.
MINNESOTA 26, PURDUE 24
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ELA:
Something to consider on Purdue's 13th ranked pass defense: They've played pretty good passing teams. Every team they've played so far has had a YPA passing rating in the top 40.
While every team in the league has been played at least one or two patsies, Purdue has played one of the harder schedules in the Big Ten so far. The worst team they've played is Missouri, which is still Power 5.
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Minnesota leads the all time series 37-32-3
So far in the 2010s, Minnesota leads Purdue 4-2
In the 20ots Purdue went 5-3 vs Minnesota
In the 1990s Purdue went 6-4 vs Minnesota
In the 80s Minnesota went 6-4 vs Purdue
In the 70s Minnesota went 3-2 vs Purdue
In the 60s Purdue went 5-4 vs Minnesota
In the 50s it was all knotted up at 3-3-1
In the 40s Minnesota went 4-2 vs Purdue
In the 30s Minnesota went 3-1-2 vs Purdue
In the 20s Minnesota won the only contest in 1928
In the 1890s they went 2-2 against each other, with Minnesota taking the first game in 1894
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I read this interview (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2017/10/5/16429636/purdue-minnesota-football-preview-blogger-interview) at Hammer & Rails with Scout's Gopher blogger, Ryan Burns.
It was... Depressing. It sounds like the sorts of things Purdue bloggers would have written while we had Hazell.
It seems like Fleck runs his backs into stacked boxes all day long (with no success), so Purdue's good run defense should be pretty solid against this rushing attack.
It sounds like their defensive backfield is a walking wounded, after graduating 4, expelling 3, and losing several DBs to injury. They're talking about converting WR to DB just for depth purposes. Not exactly the sort of defensive backfield you want to be featuring when you face Jeff Brohm's passing offense.
For the people who have watched them, is it this bad?
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The Boilers are gonna run a train on the Gopher secondary.
(https://i.pinimg.com/736x/84/6a/50/846a50ad388e0b8b8be96311e74ffd22--purdue-logo-sports-logos.jpg)
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"Minnesota loses at home to a Maryland team using its third string quarterback, making his first career start."
But but but... Pee Wee said that it was not the 3rd stringer. He said it was the 3rd 1st stringer. And then he said that he looks forward to coaching the team with his own players. But then again, he has said that this is year zero for the program (so it doesn't count, I guess??).
And no, I'm not making this shit up.
I guess he keeps forgetting that he has taken over a team that won 9 games last season, for the second time since 1905.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLdT1zrXcAAr0cL.jpg)
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After I had read about all of Minn's DB problems, I feel a lot better about a game that felt like a toss up all week. Purdue 44, Minn 28
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Purdue 31
Minnie 20
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After I had read about all of Minn's DB problems, I feel a lot better about a game that felt like a toss up all week. Purdue 44, Minn 28
I hope so. The weather report bothers me. Supposed to be raining and windy today, with both peaking around game time.
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The Purdue defense is without it's best player (LB Bentley), and a starting safety for the first half. Without the depth, this could have a big impact.
I didn't realize Minn had that big of an issue in the secondary. Brohm has likely been salivating for 2 weeks over that.
I think it's close for a half, and just when you think Purdue's depth might be an issue, they get 2 starters back. Eventually the Boilers shake off the Mich loss, find rhythm, and win convincingly.
RIP Cowboy Joe. Boiler Up.
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Gopher boards are in meltdown mode after this one.
Looks like they are starting to turn on pee wee and his antics/gimmicks. I knew they would, but I didn't think it would be so quick.
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Still unsure what type of Minnesota team we are going to see off this two game tailspin, a fired up one, or one in meltdown. It feels almost assured it will be one of those things, not in between.
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I still can't believe Purdue won a game they were once -4 in TO's.
So happy we waited out the 90 min storm delay, that was one hell of a finish. We haven't seen a rally drive like that for a win in a game that actually mattered since Orton.
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We haven't seen a rally drive like that for a win in a game that actually mattered since Orton.
I'd argue that 2009 against Michigan was a fairly spectacular rally and a meaningful game.
...but I get your point.