Very few teams overcome that 3-0 margin. Obviously, an "OSU" could do that playing "Akron", but not in anything reasonably competitive. I view TOs are about 85% random events. A team that pressures the passer and has aggressive DBs will get more INTs than "average", but fumbles often are just helmet meets ball. Even strips are somewhat random when you consider the recovery probability.
ND might be better than MSU, but not by what the score would suggest IMHO. ND has an interesting schedule I think. Miami (OH) and @UNC, and then USC, NC State, Wake, @Miami, Navy, @ Stanford. They should be 5-1 going into the USC game, which could be interesting. I've said from the start that NC State should be a solid team. They dropped the opener to USCe on turnovers then beat FSU at FSU. I don't know how good Miami may be.
A 10-2 ND probably gets a NY6 bowl berth.