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Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
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longhorn320 · « **Reply #154 on:** March 16, 2021, 02:57:32 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 02:30:25 PM

If only technology wasn't static!!! Oh wait....

well while youre at it if you base your wish list on the hope technology will allow it in the future why mess around with autos just start beaming folks places like Star Trek

bayareabadger · « **Reply #155 on:** March 16, 2021, 05:46:54 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 16, 2021, 01:46:07 PM

Public transit is effectively a density problem. If the density is high enough, public transit makes a great deal of sense.

I find that "light rail" tends to be pushed in tons of places that it makes no sense, though, and actually causes economic harm. Light rail is tremendously expensive, and once it's built it needs to be maintained. That takes a lot of money. Ridership on most light rail systems does not cover the cost of building/maintaining/operating the infrastructure, so it has to come from somewhere.

You know where that money often comes from? Buses. Bus lines are pared back to save money that can be used to keep the light rail afloat.

Which means that in a lot of places, you end up hurting the people who need transit the most (those who can't afford anything else) and ride the bus, in order to provide rich suburbanites subsidized light rail.

I mean, I guess I'm mostly just thinking about high density places. I don't think you need light rail in less dense places.

I don't know about the preciousness about buses. Short distance buses make lots of sense. Long distance buses make medium sense. Medium distance buses in hyper dense places as commuter options are kinda a mess. And you're trying to solve medium-distance needs for the most part. (I get that it's going to be a consistent cost, but that kinda part of public goods and such. Some transit infrastructure doesn't necessarily directly pay for itself, but the indirect benefits carry value)

What are the places it's pushed where it won't work?

We agree about some of the longer stuff. 400 miles of light rail is deeply impractical.

(The angle of folks who can't afford anything else is also interesting because of the way economics are turning in some places. We're now at a point where downtowns are getting more expensive and far flung places less. So if you want cheaper housing further out, the extra efficiency of train over bus starts to matter in a big way)

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #156 on:** March 16, 2021, 05:54:13 PM »

I'm not a fan of the light rail in Phx. I haven't ridden it in a few years, but when I took it to the airport once, it took about 45 min to travel that 5 miles or so.
I recall the next time I needed transportation to the airport, I did the $20 van pickup service.
It just drove me crazy that we were basically having trouble outpacing bike riders on that thing.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #157 on:** March 16, 2021, 05:58:06 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on March 16, 2021, 02:57:00 PM

But... You claimed the hurdle was that people wouldn't accept safer technology even if we COULD magically install it country-wide, if it wasn't safe *enough*.

So it was just your way of sh!tting on unenlightened rubes who can't see things as clearly as you... As usual.

That is the hurdle. If you don't like my tense, then I'll say that WILL BE the hurdle. Cool. Same point made.
I try to only tend to shit on unenlightened rubes when they pair it with confidence.

You seem to be unable to have flights of fancy that omit the actual implementation and all that it entails. That must be frustrating.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #158 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:06:06 PM »

This area added a tax to fund light rail. One problem is obviously it doesn't transition to heavy rail, you have to get off one kind and get on another at a station. Buses as noted are more flexible, and you can build grade separated dedicated bus lanes. I'm not too interested in walking to a light rail station to go to a heavy rail station and wait for a train, again, to get to the airport or wherever.

We haven't taken the subway since COVID obviously, it's convenient for us for travel within the US, but they built a disconnected international terminal they use for flights to Europe and Asia. $1.5 billion for a terminal with 12 gates, I think they have, sparsely utilized. That was stimulus money from 2010.

And the airport train doesn't run to it, you need a bus.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #159 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:06:55 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 05:54:13 PM

I'm not a fan of the light rail in Phx. I haven't ridden it in a few years, but when I took it to the airport once, it took about 45 min to travel that 5 miles or so.
I recall the next time I needed transportation to the airport, I did the $20 van pickup service.
It just drove me crazy that we were basically having trouble outpacing bike riders on that thing.

Is that the only thing close to anything else in Phoenix?

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #160 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:08:26 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on March 16, 2021, 05:46:54 PM

I mean, I guess I'm mostly just thinking about high density places. I don't think you need light rail in less dense places.

I don't know about the preciousness about buses. Short distance buses make lots of sense. Long distance buses make medium sense. Medium distance buses in hyper dense places as commuter options are kinda a mess. And you're trying to solve medium-distance needs for the most part. (I get that it's going to be a consistent cost, but that kinda part of public goods and such. Some transit infrastructure doesn't necessarily directly pay for itself, but the indirect benefits carry value)

What are the places it's pushed where it won't work?

Phoenix is a good example of where it won't work... But it doesn't stop them from trying.

Full disclosure: the author of the blog I'm about to link is pretty strongly libertarian, so obviously he comes at this from a certain point of bias. However I strongly recommend reading some of his posts with the Phoenix Light Rail tag. It's some really good insight.

https://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/tag/phoenix-light-rail

Specifically, though, this is a really good one: https://coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2014/10/phoenix-light-rail-update-we-spent-1-4billion-to-reduce-transit-ridership.html

If you look at Phoenix, they were showing consistent increases in transit ridership for a decade. As soon as they built light rail, transit ridership--in a city that's been growing like gangbusters--immediately stagnated. Bus ridership went down and light rail went up, at almost a 1:1 number. Was that worth it?

---------------

The issue is a lot of places like to think they're high density enough for light rail, but... They're not. Every medium-sized city has people who fetishize light rail. But rarely does it actually work out.

You get these enlightened city planners who think they can "revitalize downtown" by connecting the suburbs to the city center via light rail. Of course, in a lot of cases those suburban workers work in... The suburbs. Light rail, rather than being a real commuting option, tends to be what drunks use to get downtown to party so they don't have to drive. That's not a bad thing (I've done it), but hardly worth the billions that cities throw at it.

The poor largely don't need medium-distance travel. Usually a big part of being poor is working relatively low-skill jobs, which doesn't require commuting "downtown" every day.

Light rail is a great thing for middle-class folks who have nice houses and shiny vehicles they leave at their park & ride to feel good about themselves for taking "transit" to work and being green. But it's a really expensive solution for that "problem", and the cost of that solution then tends to crowd out meaningful transit options for those who need it most.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #161 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:10:36 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 16, 2021, 06:06:06 PM

This area added a tax to fund light rail. One problem is obviously it doesn't transition to heavy rail, you have to get off one kind and get on another at a station. Buses as noted are more flexible, and you can build grade separated dedicated bus lanes. I'm not too interested in walking to a light rail station to go to a heavy rail station and wait for a train, again, to get to the airport or wherever.

We haven't taken the subway since COVID obviously, it's convenient for us for travel within the US, but they built a disconnected international terminal they use for flights to Europe and Asia. $1.5 billion for a terminal with 12 gates, I think they have, sparsely utilized. That was stimulus money from 2010.

And the airport train doesn't run to it, you need a bus.

Explain to me a little more about the light-rail heavy rail thing. Were is that taking you to and from?

The bus thing is interesting because the dedicated bus lanes create their own sense of chaos and slowdown, unless you're just talking freeway.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #162 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:14:20 PM »

One thing heavy rail has done here, finally (it took decades) is to spark development around the various stations. It was slow to happen because the city was dying when MARTA was built, population declining etc., but that shifted around 2000. Now many of the subway stations are marked with big development of apts and condos. This is less so, by a lot, in the poorer areas of the city. Buckhead wouldn't be what is it without MARTA I think.

(I don't really like Buckhead, but it's impressive looking. We did look at condos there, the environment generally felt sterile.)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #163 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:17:49 PM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on March 16, 2021, 06:10:36 PM

Explain to me a little more about the light-rail heavy rail thing. Were is that taking you to and from?

The bus thing is interesting because the dedicated bus lanes create their own sense of chaos and slowdown, unless you're just talking freeway.

We have no light rail here, as yet, other than a streetcar which is lame. Light rail, in general, pulls power from overhead lines, is slower, and often not grade separated.

Heavy rail runs up to 70 mph and pulls power off the rails and is always grade separated. Below is where they built a freeway at the same time as the subway line, and put it in the median, which makes sense when you can do it. (that is the King and Queen building in the background in Sandy Springs)

My idea for bus lanes is for them to be grade separated where possible and blend into city streets where not.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #164 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:21:35 PM »

This is one of the light rail proposals, it would link two heavy rail lines. But you'd change trains at each end to continue.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #165 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:21:49 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on March 16, 2021, 05:58:06 PM

That is the hurdle. If you don't like my tense, then I'll say that WILL BE the hurdle. Cool. Same point made.
I try to only tend to shit on unenlightened rubes when they pair it with confidence.

You seem to be unable to have flights of fancy that omit the actual implementation and all that it entails. That must be frustrating.

My frustration is at a high level right now... You've got that right.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #166 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:26:18 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 12, 2021, 12:04:21 PM

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future ....

I've mentioned before autonomous vehicles and EVs. I don't know if Level 4 is inside a decade or not, it might be more like 2035. If trucks get auto, a lot of jobs will go missing.

Longer term, automation will increasingly replace jobs for less well trained workers and that will be an issue.

So... To get back on track.

My prediction is that the next decade will be the decade of mRNA.

After reading about the work leading up to the vaccines, it seems that there has been a lot of promising research on the possibilities of mRNA, but I think the fact that there had been no successful uses to date kinda made it an arcane research area. Well, I think that just ended. There's going to be money thrown at mRNA treatments/vaccines/etc, and it's quite possible that we've just unlocked one of the next stages in our ability to conquer the way we handle medical care.

I'm quite excited about this one, and I think it's near-term enough that we might see some pretty impressive things within the decade.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #167 on:** March 16, 2021, 06:32:30 PM »

Another one... What are folks' thoughts on Radical Life Extension?

This is, of course, the idea that we solve the medical problem of "aging." We as a species generally grow for only about half of our lifespan, and the second half is mostly crap just starting to break down and fail. What if it doesn't have to fail? What if we can be 25 years old [physically] forever, or at least turn average human lifespans into the 150-200 year range instead of ~80, with productive bodies for most of those years?

I don't think we'll have significant progress on this in the next decade. But research in finding ways to conquer aging are ongoing.

If this is just a really tough engineering problem, rather than something insoluble, it will happen eventually. The question is when, and how close are we?

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Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

longhorn320

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

bayareabadger

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

Cincydawg

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

bayareabadger

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

bayareabadger

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

Cincydawg

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

Cincydawg

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

Cincydawg

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...