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Topic: Likely expansion targets for the B1G

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FearlessF

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #98 on: July 27, 2021, 01:32:32 PM »
Quote from: TamrielsKeeper on July 27, 2021, 01:09:55 PM
ESPN is basically paying $160M to get out of their failed LHN experiment and kill the B12, making it cost almost nothing for UT to make this move - UT wouldn't get that deal going anywhere else.
this makes sense
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TamrielsKeeper

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #99 on: July 27, 2021, 01:38:56 PM »
I'm simply saying the B1G is in a position where it has no choice but to respond or concede, and the only realistic response is ND+USC and friends.  There really aren't any options other than doing nothing, falling behind competitively/financially, and tOSU/UM ending up in the SEC super league someday.  If you take the top 4-5 properties out of the P12, it basically nukes the revenue for whoever is left (plus the B12 contract/inventory, that would be greatly reduced) and that gets re-distributed to the next B1G contract.  Keep in mind a move like this would basically consolidate all valuable non-SEC CFB content (outside of Clemson/FSU basically) to the B10 contract, and right now you could assume Fox/NBC/CBS would all be interested bidders - you'd want to confirm that before making any moves obviously.

It could be that ND/tOSU/UM are planning on joining a super league where they'll be the northern outposts in a southern conference someday, I would think they'd try to avoid that if they could, not sure how they'd view that to be in their best interest, but doing nothing here probably results in that over time as the SEC revenue would dramatically outpace the B1G revenue, as we seem to agree.  If the revenue is close, tOSU/UM wouldn't ever put themselves at that kind of disadvantage, but given what the SEC just did, they're going to pull well ahead if the B1G does nothing.

If you're an attorney and know how you can get the ACC schools out of a GOR prior to 2035 cost effectively, my opinion on that would be different.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #100 on: July 27, 2021, 02:27:43 PM »
I wonder how "we" would assemble football conferences if we scattered the pieces around the floor and started over.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #101 on: July 27, 2021, 02:40:25 PM »
Quote from: TamrielsKeeper on July 27, 2021, 01:09:55 PM
You might not like the combinations necessary, but they do exist IMO.  Mostly USC/ND would be required.

The B1G whiffed on UT/OU already, UT/OU already applied for membership in the SEC this morning, and frankly, the B1G never really had a shot because ESPN is straight up bankrolling the move to get 100% control of UT/OU's Tier 1-Tier 3 rights:


https://twitter.com/ChipBrown247/status/1420045125850435597?s=20

ESPN is basically paying $160M to get out of their failed LHN experiment and kill the B12, making it cost almost nothing for UT to make this move - UT wouldn't get that deal going anywhere else.
I was wondering about that...

Could that be why--if the rumors are true and UT/OU approached the B1G--that we couldn't get it done?

Texas was saddled with an ESPN relationship that ESPN wouldn't let them out of to join the B1G, while the B1G couldn't accept a half-membership with a school that was in bed with ESPN for its own network?

ESPN has motivation to help Texas into the SEC--they have no motivation to help Texas into the B1G. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #102 on: July 27, 2021, 02:55:07 PM »
If revenue is shared equally, there would be some program in the Big Ten that is "average", it brings in about what it takes in.  Whoever you add needs to be better than average.  Let's say Iowa is "average", find programs more appealing to eyeballs than Iowa.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #103 on: July 27, 2021, 03:18:47 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2021, 02:55:07 PM
If revenue is shared equally, there would be some program in the Big Ten that is "average", it brings in about what it takes in.  Whoever you add needs to be better than average.  Let's say Iowa is "average", find programs more appealing to eyeballs than Iowa.
This clearly isn't perfect but it is a good rough approximation of the average eyeballs/revenue that each B1G school brings in, B1G states by population with national rank:
  • #5 PA, 13M
  • #7 OH, 11.8M
  • #11 NJ, 9.3M
  • Half of #6 IL, 6.4M
  • Other half of IL, 6.4M
  • #18 MD, 6.2M
  • #20 WI, 5.9M
  • #22 MN, 5.7M
  • Half of #10 MI, 5M
  • Other half of MI, 5M
  • Half of #17 IN, 3.4M
  • Other half of IN, 3.4M
  • #32 IA, 3.2M
  • #38 NE, 2M

You have to adjust for schools like Nebraska having a LOT of out-of-state fans and divide population by 2 (or be more complex) for the states with two schools but the middle would seem to be somewhere around 6M population which is why I'm leaning no on Kansas (#36, 2.9M).  


The second school in IL marginally makes sense only if the two are near-even.  The second schools in MI and IN really don't make sense and a second school in Iowa would be colossally stupid.  
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TamrielsKeeper

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #104 on: July 27, 2021, 03:59:59 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2021, 02:27:43 PM
I wonder how "we" would assemble football conferences if we scattered the pieces around the floor and started over.

The best thing for CFB as a regional sport would be to have the top 64 or so schools break away and collectively bargain a single TV agreement - that would make all the conference realignment stuff go away entirely and everything could go back to being based on geography.
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WhiskeyM

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #105 on: July 27, 2021, 04:03:20 PM »
I think Va Tech would be easier to pry away than Virginia or UNC.  I also think they are a solid addition.  Virginia is the 12th most populous state.  VT is a public land grant research institution (although not an AAU member, they are classified as an R1).  They have a large enrollment.  They have had success as a football program.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #106 on: July 27, 2021, 04:22:43 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 27, 2021, 02:27:43 PM
I wonder how "we" would assemble football conferences if we scattered the pieces around the floor and started over.
That is probably the best course of action at this point. 

I am sure there are a bunch of boring financial reasons that would make such an approach impractical. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #107 on: July 27, 2021, 04:25:00 PM »
why not allow ESPN/ABC arrange conferences and therefore schedules

that's what they want and what it comes down to in the end
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FearlessF

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #108 on: July 27, 2021, 04:25:37 PM »
May be an image of 1 person and text that says '1 MOST FOLLOWED PROGRAMS f ON SOCIAL MEDIA is OHIO STATE BUCKEYES 2 FLORIDA GATORS 3 OREGON DUCKS TEXAS LONGHORNS 5 GEORGIA BULLDOGS 6 WISCONSIN BADGERS 7 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS K KENTUCKYWILDCATS KENTUCKY 10 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS 247SPR'

overall, not just football
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MrNubbz

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #109 on: July 27, 2021, 04:28:08 PM »
VT would be a very good addition IMHO good program/campus/facilities from what I've seen
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #110 on: July 27, 2021, 04:36:44 PM »
It seems like the Oregon bandwagon has broken down. 

Ten years ago you saw Oregon gear all over the West. 

Now you really don't ever see any, unless you are up near that area. 
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FearlessF

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Re: Likely expansion targets for the B1G
« Reply #111 on: July 27, 2021, 04:48:00 PM »
Washington brings more TV eyeballs
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